tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post115280036146316868..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Media knows best, and leadership phase twoUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152840605065062342006-07-13T21:30:00.000-04:002006-07-13T21:30:00.000-04:00I don't think that there is a real frontrunner in ...I don't think that there is a real frontrunner in this race just yet.<BR/><BR/>There are three or four candidates that seem to have a real shot at this point.<BR/><BR/>However, the convention is just a little under six months away and we all know that six months is a lifetime in politics.<BR/><BR/>So I am not going to worry about this just yet. I am going to listen to the candidates now that they have no choice but to talk about policy.<BR/><BR/>And to paraphrase BCer in TO, I am going to sit back and enjoy the ride because the next months are going to be fun and interesting.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152835558476330832006-07-13T20:05:00.000-04:002006-07-13T20:05:00.000-04:00Kyle that is true. However, it is also true that ...Kyle that is true. However, it is also true that the walk across a convention hall can be a defining moment in the voting, especially with no clear first or second ballot winner. Alot of Rae's people may ignore an endorsement, although historically alot of delegates follow, but it also effects other people's supporters. Momentum will be the key to winning this thing, I don't think we can discount what Rae may do.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152831523991203632006-07-13T18:58:00.000-04:002006-07-13T18:58:00.000-04:00Luckily people have minds of their own. The few R...Luckily people have minds of their own. The few Rae people I know wouldnt support Iggy if their life depended on it (I hyperbolize of course).KChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932623568330893522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152830371573062732006-07-13T18:39:00.000-04:002006-07-13T18:39:00.000-04:00Ignatieff may have no growth beyond the first ball...Ignatieff may have no growth beyond the first ballot, but Rae may be the wild card in this scenario. Speculation for sure, but I could easily see Rae walking across the floor to throw his support behind his lifelong friend. <BR/><BR/>The surprise may be Volpe, and given Ignatieff's public call for him to withdraw, this could come back to haunt him.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152829411916828612006-07-13T18:23:00.000-04:002006-07-13T18:23:00.000-04:00Actually Bud, if we're to believe the stories a fe...Actually Bud, if we're to believe the stories a few weeks ago the Liberal Party is now debt free.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/gbpu7<BR/><BR/>Something does have to be done about the delegate fee though, esp. given the new donation limit, and I'd imagine something will happen. Something has to.<BR/><BR/>On delegated conventions I don't know if it's going to the past as it's what the Liberals have always had, so if anything it's sticking with the past. I would like to see reform of the system myself, but it's too late for this time.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152824347411952282006-07-13T16:59:00.000-04:002006-07-13T16:59:00.000-04:00I think the whole thing is irrelevant. On top of ...I think the whole thing is irrelevant. On top of the Liberal Party's overwhelming debts, which scared away all the serious candidates, you now have the complication of the new $1,000 limit colliding with the proposed $995 delegate fee. <BR/><BR/>And can someone tell me, please, why are the Liberals trying to go back to the future with an old-fashioned delegated leadership convention?Budd Campbellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04194826986794514558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152823943835387082006-07-13T16:52:00.000-04:002006-07-13T16:52:00.000-04:00I think Ignatieff, Dion, and Kennedy are the three...I think Ignatieff, Dion, and Kennedy are the three with the best chance to win. Rae and Volpe will bring a ton of delegates but I have a hard time imagining a scenario where either wins. I suppose someone like Dryden or Brison could come out of nowhere and win but I'd be surprised.<BR/><BR/>Ignatieff will be first on the first ballot so I don't have a problem calling him the frontrunner. But if you were puting Vegas odds on this race, I think it would be very hard to rank the candidates by their chance to win it all.calgarygrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152820736577533642006-07-13T15:58:00.000-04:002006-07-13T15:58:00.000-04:00Kyle, I think you're right, but it depends on your...Kyle, I think you're right, but it depends on your definition of frontrunner. Conventional wisdom is he's tops on the first ballot and peaks there. That scenario could hold true, or things could shake-out differently. Anyway, even if his second choice support is low I think his amoutn of first choice support makes it hard not to call him a frontrunner. Anything can still happen, and there's worst positions to be in.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152814548486003472006-07-13T14:15:00.000-04:002006-07-13T14:15:00.000-04:00Jeff,If Ignatieff is going to tank after the first...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>If Ignatieff is going to tank after the first round can he really be called a "frontrunner". I totally agree with you that he has zero room to growth. As I wrote in my blog today, he likely has a plurality of support but in light of the fact that he is unnacceptable to >50% of the party he cannot be called a "frontrunner".KChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932623568330893522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152811865566348772006-07-13T13:31:00.000-04:002006-07-13T13:31:00.000-04:00Bob Rae, lives in my riding here in Toronto (Parkd...Bob Rae, lives in my riding here in Toronto (Parkdale-High Park) and I know of one person who is supporting him who was on the riding executive in the past few years.<BR/><BR/>Mind you it's not as if he's the only leader connected to this riding, Gerard Kennedy used to represent the riding provincially, and Michael Ignatieff represents the riding west, so that's where most of the support in the riding is going to. <BR/><BR/>I would say that it says something that Rae is unable to get more support amongst those within the riding he lives in but honest I doubt many people in the riding even know he lives where he lives. Liberals included.Baileyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12423615329119443537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152811552663213192006-07-13T13:25:00.000-04:002006-07-13T13:25:00.000-04:00Ignatieff is a frontrunner, I don't think that can...Ignatieff is a frontrunner, I don't think that can be denied. But I think he'll peak on the first ballot with 0 room for growth on subsequent ballots.<BR/><BR/>Now, as for Rae, well, not all 11 will be on the ballot come December, or even by super weekend in September, it will be interesting to see who drops out and where they and their supporters go.<BR/><BR/>Robert, that's exactly the way it should be. People research their options and make their decision. I've never been one to pressure anyone in either way, if asked I just explain why I'm supporting Stephane. We benefit from everyone making informed, independant decisions. Unfortunently, it being politics, there will always be shenanigans. C'est la guerre.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152807397323355322006-07-13T12:16:00.000-04:002006-07-13T12:16:00.000-04:00I have been saying the same thing about Rae for mo...I have been saying the same thing about Rae for months. The fact that the media has been portraying Rae and Ignatieff as the two frontrunners--both completely unelectable candidates--tells us that the Harper-Media honeymoon ain't over till the fat lady sings.KChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932623568330893522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1152801242330250792006-07-13T10:34:00.000-04:002006-07-13T10:34:00.000-04:00This is the first time I've ever belonged to a par...This is the first time I've ever belonged to a party during a leadership drive, and it's been an interesting perspective.<BR/><BR/>For what membership driving I was doing, I wasn't trying to bring in lots of bodies, but rather making sure that friends and acquaintances who I thought would be inclined were aware of the option to join the party and have a say.<BR/><BR/>Most people I know are pretty independant thinkers, so even the ones who were interested in joining were going to look at all the candidates and decide for themselves (which is a good thing).Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02356051986341861610noreply@blogger.com