tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post115980005624879922..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Gerard will crown the next leaderUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159884288539742672006-10-03T10:04:00.000-04:002006-10-03T10:04:00.000-04:00JNP, I really don't see how you can say Dion's 10 ...JNP, I really don't see how you can say Dion's 10 per cent in Ontario is comparitively worse than Gerards one per cent in Quebec.<BR/><BR/>While I would have liked to have seen Dion do (much) better in Ontario, it bears remembering he and Brison were the only non-Ontario candidates. He was up against a field of native sons (and one daughter), including a former premier, provincial cabinet minister, the frontrunner himself and the former maple leafs president. Given all that, he did pretty good. <BR/><BR/>In Quebec, it's not quite right to say he is unknown. He campaigned heavily there, spent the summer there to learn French. Remember the voters were Liberal members, and he had seven months for them to get to know him. They took a good look.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159839729731741032006-10-02T21:42:00.000-04:002006-10-02T21:42:00.000-04:00Burl, if Kennedy had only managed to put up semi-r...Burl, if Kennedy had only managed to put up semi-resectable numbers it would be a very different story. With even 7 to 10 per cent in Quebec he'd have to be the favourite to be on the final ballot, and the pressure would be very heavy on Dion to move after the first ballot. But the one per cent showing in Quebec, in my opinion, is a death knell in the LPC. The symblolism to anglo voters is too huge.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159829872247124952006-10-02T18:57:00.000-04:002006-10-02T18:57:00.000-04:00And its all in the timing. Interesting that your s...And its all in the timing. Interesting that your spin tells Kennedy to give up the dream and join Dion... If, as one subscribes, the final total DSM total puts the Quebec professor in 3rd, then you've got a legitimate theory. If Rae and 3rd were extremely close and Rae (my guy,by the way) thought his growth potential was not enuf to get ahead of Mikey, it would be possible to see him pull a Svend and back Dion/Kennedy. Tho it's unlikely.<BR/>Ted's question is most interesting. Now will be the time for bridge building, while investigating the pillars... I can't say who of Dion or Kennedy should give it up, but I believe Ignatieff's best card is that Dion and Kennedy are so close -- likely putting them in a push and pull battle to convince the other to surrender the cause. The best thing going for a possible Rae or Dion force is that Kennedy has proven time and again to be a supreme team player. But he's now sitting in McGinty's position and may be thinking from that perspective.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159825374649170302006-10-02T17:42:00.000-04:002006-10-02T17:42:00.000-04:00At least one of those guys is going to have to giv...<I>At least one of those guys is going to have to give up his dream if they want to stop Iggy.</I><BR/><BR/>The question though, is why would they want to stop Iggy? Just for the sake of stopping him?<BR/><BR/>There are legit reasons for not wanting Ignatieff to be leader, I understand that but being in front is certainly not one of them in my estimation.Zachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05312456253891615523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159823321236574592006-10-02T17:08:00.000-04:002006-10-02T17:08:00.000-04:00As a Brison supporter, I agree with Jeremy. I doub...As a Brison supporter, I agree with Jeremy. I doubt very much that Brison will flirt with Iggy. Brison supported the UN/NATO mandate in Afghanistan and Canada's original role, but not the combat mission. And he certainly did not support the illegal invasion of Iraq!<BR/> <BR/>Dion has always been a much better fit, since - apart from the Afghanistan human rights issue - their platforms have been almost identical from the beginning.<BR/> <BR/>Brison won't be a king maker. There will have to be some major decisions among Dion, Rae and Kennedy as to who should be handed that job... At least one of those guys is going to have to give up his dream if they want to stop Iggy. <BR/><BR/>And somehow, I don't think it will be Rae. My gut feeling/woman's intuition is that there is bad blood there, and Rae wants to beat the pants off Iggy for personal as well as political reasons.Penelope Personshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06568490631814894124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159819505582989532006-10-02T16:05:00.000-04:002006-10-02T16:05:00.000-04:00I don't think that Brison's support will necessari...I don't think that Brison's support will necessarily go over to Ignatieff. If you look at it, Brison is running a strong environmental, social justice and economic platform which is a lot more like Dion's than Ignatieff's. Personally, as a Dion supporter, I wouldn't mind having Brison in Cabinet either. Dion is committed to having environmental Ministers in every Ministry and Brison seems to fit the bill pretty well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159817353511656552006-10-02T15:29:00.000-04:002006-10-02T15:29:00.000-04:00Steve, a few things on Quebec. The first thing, I ...Steve, a few things on Quebec. The first thing, I think it's amusing that those (not you) that were telling us Dion was the devil in Quebec are now telling us its a disapointment he didn't sweep the province.<BR/><BR/>I don't think the LPCQ is reflective of the Quebec populace. Polling shows that Dion polls well ahead of all the other candidates, and the LPC itself, amongst Quebec voters. So Dion would do even better in a general election in Quebec; according to the polling, better than the other guys.<BR/><BR/>So why was he second to Iggy then? I touched on this in my Frulla post last week, but I think there's a divide in the LPC on how to approach the separtism issue, and the establishment of the LPCQ tends to come down much more on the side of the view expressed by Iggy then on the side of the view expressed by Dion, and so organized hard for Iggy.<BR/><BR/>Also, Rae and Dion split the no-constitiutional opening vote. Add up their vote and its over 50 per cent rejecting that option.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159814389791243592006-10-02T14:39:00.000-04:002006-10-02T14:39:00.000-04:00Good analysis Jeff. My only quibble is your conte...Good analysis Jeff. My only quibble is your contention that Dion did well in Quebec. Dion's baggage in Quebec wouldn't show up in a poll of strong federalists would it? Why wouldn't Dion do well in his home province, amongst partisans? I'm not overwhelmed with Dion in Quebec, considering who was voting and there were only three players all along. Did Dion do poorly? No, but I don't think it particularly impressive either.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159813142868512132006-10-02T14:19:00.000-04:002006-10-02T14:19:00.000-04:00Actually Psychols, I expect Dion will finish 3rd o...Actually Psychols, I expect Dion will finish 3rd once the last 60 ridings come in.<BR/><BR/>There are 18 ridings left in Quebec - Dion will grab a good chunk of those, and he will get numbers from the remaining ridings elsewhere - particularly BC and Ontario. Gerard will not however get many delegates in the Quebec ridings - if any - so I dont think I'd be pegging Dion for 4th just yet. I realize Jeff pooh-poohs the psychological effect of being 3rd when obly a few delegates separate the 2.. but I do think its important for perspective.Oxford County Liberalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12181314055142726735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159810035044301512006-10-02T13:27:00.000-04:002006-10-02T13:27:00.000-04:00Principle above party ! I believe that I am a prin...Principle above party ! I believe that I am a principled person and a Liberal. I do get tired of hearing people who say they are out of here "the Party" if Bob Rae,or Michael Ignatieff becomes Leader. I think that behaviour is not principled, it sounds more like I don't like this game because I'm losing so I'll take my stuff and go home. It is whining ! Quitting is not principled.Lollyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11113905007765409622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159809316624690602006-10-02T13:15:00.000-04:002006-10-02T13:15:00.000-04:00Indeed Ted, the question with any candidate crossi...Indeed Ted, the question with any candidate crossing over to another is how many of their supporters come over with them. I suspect it will have much to do with why the candidate makes their move, but certaintly it will be quite fluid. That goes for everyone.<BR/><BR/>Diva I didn't count him out before, and while I don't like his chances things could still change. Tell me though, how do you think he can overcome the Quebec numbers?<BR/><BR/>Euegene, you seem to misunderstand the process. This wasn't multiple ballots over the weekend or multiple rounds, people voted at different times accross the country, and the results were merely reported in realtime. To attribute some kind of momentum or growth to the numbers as they came in over the weekend is inaccurate and meaningless. What needs to be examined is the numbers in their entirety, and the regional breakdowns.<BR/><BR/>Psychols, the line between opinion and spin is a fine one. Is there an element of spin in my post? No doubt. My bias is clear, that can't help but colour my thinking. But I honestly believe in my analysis, and I explained in detail how I arrived at it. That's what seperates opinion from spin. <BR/><BR/>Is fourth where he needs to be right now? I didn't say that. Phycologically I'd prefer he was in third, but is just a few delegates behind Gerard. Heck, I'd rather he be in first, but I'm realistic. I was honest about his Ontario numbers, but I think it's acceptable. My analysis is that he's got a good shot. So do Bob and Michael, Gerard a bit less so but stranger things have happened.<BR/><BR/>As for not having time for people that say they'll abandon ship if Rae or Iggy wins, they're entitled to their opinions and I'm entitled not to like their opinions. Are they really valuing principle over party? Perhaps so, in some cases. In other cases, I'd wager not. But I'd like to think the party is bigger than it's leader. Anyway, my point was we can't cater such people but what theyll do and its impact shouldn't be ignored when judging how things will work out.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159809116961710332006-10-02T13:11:00.000-04:002006-10-02T13:11:00.000-04:00It was "sickening" to watch Rae on TV sucking up t...It was "sickening" to watch Rae on TV sucking up to Kennedy by patting Kennedy's kids on the back and telling them to be proud of their daddy - in fact, Kennedy looked rather uncomfortable - on purpose or really was I don't know but it made me sick.<BR/><BR/>Now allegations are running rampant about Ignatieff and Dion doing dirty tricks and blocking voters - does this never stop?<BR/><BR/>Kennedy isn't quite ready to be leader of the party but in a few years watch out. Who he sides with will leave a reflection on him, especially in Ontario. It is for me anyway. If Rae, there may not be anything credible left for the party when he finishes with it.<BR/><BR/>Another disturbing thing are the bloggers who only spout out bad things about other candidates that are not their choice. Most try to do some examining of issues and policies but others, like John Lennard (Rae supporter)only bring out the bad about the others. It would be nice if he could see something nice even small about the other candidates. This is cheezy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159808980654996982006-10-02T13:09:00.000-04:002006-10-02T13:09:00.000-04:00Well The Liberals need a leader who has a chance t...Well The Liberals need a leader who has a chance to win with ordinary Canadians. Rae and Ignatieff have baggage big-time. Speaking as an ordinary Canadian who isn't a Liberal or any other type of partisan hack.<BR/><BR/>Hell, Dryden would be be the best choice if Liberals really gave a shat about ordinary people anymore.<BR/><BR/>Mac NorbertAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159808154304654682006-10-02T12:55:00.000-04:002006-10-02T12:55:00.000-04:00You made fun of spin in an earlier post yet this p...You made fun of spin in an earlier post yet this post is nothing but spin. I support Dion, but it is foolish to argue that fourth place is where he needs to be right now. Your argument is based solely upon your conviction that the other candidates have insurmountable difficulties. That remains to be seen. <BR/><BR/>Why have you no use for Liberals who would leave the party if a specific candidate wins? These are people who place principle above party.Psycholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14979824582570452278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159807574592268852006-10-02T12:46:00.000-04:002006-10-02T12:46:00.000-04:00Hmm you seem to be standing on your head looking a...Hmm you seem to be standing on your head looking at the figures. It is Rae and Kennedy who have gained this weekend Dion has stalled. But that does make him Kingmaker, as I have blogged.EUGENE PLAWIUKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11736971647879996375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159806979193202002006-10-02T12:36:00.000-04:002006-10-02T12:36:00.000-04:00The same people who said, months ago, that Kennedy...The same people who said, months ago, that Kennedy's campaign was doomed, are the same people who say his Quebec-deficit is unsurmountable. After the Super Weekend Results, I think you should think twice before counting Kennedy out.DivaRachelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08715600264898372851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159806206834267952006-10-02T12:23:00.000-04:002006-10-02T12:23:00.000-04:00Bear in mind that virtually all of the Brison peop...Bear in mind that virtually all of the Brison people are likely to go to Ignatieff. That's not a small number.Michael Foxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15225767793602935802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159805004954030672006-10-02T12:03:00.000-04:002006-10-02T12:03:00.000-04:00So the question is:If Kennedy goes over to Rae and...So the question is:<BR/><BR/>If Kennedy goes over to Rae and Dion is third on the second to last ballot, will Dion go to Rae and, if he does, how many can he reasonably be expected to bring with him?<BR/><BR/>If Kennedy goes over to Dion and Rae is third on the second to last ballot, will Rae go to Dion and, if he does, how many can he reasonably be expected to bring with him?<BR/><BR/>I frankly think that there is a 50/50 chance all each of those questions. Kennedy is as likely to go Dion as he is Rae; Dion is as likely to go Ignatieff as he is Rae; Rae is as likely to go Ignatieff as he is Dion. <BR/><BR/>More importantly, in each case, there will be a lot of bleeding of support. Rae's, Dion's, Dryden's supporters in particular have not been campaigning with him for years and are not going to feel the need to follow their candidate as much as past campaigns, especially if they sense they can help put Ignatieff over the top.Ted Bettshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06223729391428982448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159803927374289152006-10-02T11:45:00.000-04:002006-10-02T11:45:00.000-04:00Rae cannot win the majority of delegates from Onta...Rae cannot win the majority of delegates from Ontario.<BR/><BR/>Kennedy cannot win the majority of delegates from Quebec.<BR/><BR/>Paul Wells (and you) were absolutely right its two professors on last ballot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159803762765475962006-10-02T11:42:00.000-04:002006-10-02T11:42:00.000-04:00Well, your well reasoned, thoughtful argument conv...Well, your well reasoned, thoughtful argument convinced me anon. I've seen the error of my thinking. Well done.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-1159803545846080272006-10-02T11:39:00.000-04:002006-10-02T11:39:00.000-04:00It is highly unlikely that Gerard will go to Steph...It is highly unlikely that Gerard will go to Stephane.<BR/><BR/>Sorry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com