tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post3650962776268530337..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Expectations met, smidgen of breathing room gainedUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-33574097401413290922008-03-19T23:32:00.000-04:002008-03-19T23:32:00.000-04:00Joan, that's interesting. Their effort certaintly ...Joan, that's interesting. Their effort certaintly did seem rather half-assed from this side of the country, so that could make sense. Anyway, certaintly it points to Liberal work to do in BC.<BR/><BR/>Ch, as long as the Liberals aren't benefiting the Cons may not change strategies. Long-term the Cons and NDP do share the same strategic goal: eliminating the Liberals and carving its support up amongst themselves. <BR/><BR/>Thanks Mike. And he does still use the richer canada, fairer canada, greener canada line, he used it at the speech monday.<BR/><BR/>budd, a Dion cabinet? I wouldn't think you could even forsee such a possibility, I appreciate your confidence in Stephane. But seriously, given that it was Martha's moving to Dion for the second ballot that got the momentum of his win going, I think she's im his good books to be sure.<BR/><BR/>Jason, please, I think you know there's a difference between "no matter what Dion does I'm going to say its the end of the world" and reasoned debate, that's all I was saying. No echo chambers, but no talking points either.<BR/><BR/><I>The Tories' "urban strategy" *did* do some good, one can only assume, in Vancouver Quadra</I><BR/><BR/>It didn't hurt them, yes. Most analysis I've seen though indicates that it wasn't a surge in Con support that saw them nearly win in Quadra, it was a bleeding of Liberal support to the Greens narrowing the margin. So, while with a win you certaintly could have made that case, really the vote totals make that a weaker argument. The Con candidate also didn't have Gary Lunn running around saying BC sucks, I'd say that was one diferentiating factor between Quadra and the two Ontario ridings.<BR/><BR/><I>if the Libs *weren't* putting big-time effort into VQ...then there's something wrong with their strategy</I><BR/><BR/>I don't know what the Liberal GOTV strategy was like in Quadra, I'd like to think it was all hands on deck. I think there were other factors inhibiting the Liberal vote there, and as I said clearly we need to revisit our BC strategy.<BR/><BR/><I>The Libs, of course, received similar results in the non-Outremont QC seats in the by-elections last fall; this suggests both contending parties have serious weak zones</I><BR/><BR/>Oh, the Liberals have lots of weak zones, I'm the first to admit that. I wouldn't hang too much on Outremont though, it was a perfect storm of factors, including a Liberal appoitnment clusterf*** a la Saskatchewan and organizational hari kari. It's not indicative of much, and while I won't call a Liberal win I will go out on a strong limb and say Muclair won't keep his seat in the general. That said, outside of Montreal the Liberals do have issues. And if you look at it, outside of Quebec City the Cons have issues too. So neither of them is about to break out in Quebec. But I've digressed.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, as for Bob and Martha, lets just say Willowdale is where I wanted to be...<BR/><BR/>Koby, yes the Cons have been inconviently well-behaved on the social conservativism front. Your advice is good.<BR/><BR/>On the NDP, while the messaging may be different in the regions, nationally the messaging has been Liberals Bad and that filters into the region too. But in BC, I actually think the NDP may lose some of their recent gains back to the Cons. For example, Catherine Bell in Van Isle North. Also, Nathan Cullen is going to have an interesting fight in Skeena-BV.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-76615575719910872162008-03-19T18:12:00.000-04:002008-03-19T18:12:00.000-04:00>>>>> The first factor to be considered is that th...>>>>> The first factor to be considered is that this is a riding the Conservatives should have been competitive in, so it’s no surprise they were. Go back into the not too distant past and they held this seat. It’s wealthy, its in the West, very establishment, the kind of seat that should be able to make a strong showing in. Former Liberal MP Stephen Owen was very personally popular here, Murray didn’t have the same roots in the riding so its unsurprising she didn’t hang on to his healthy margin.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Fair enough. However one thing should be kept in mind. In 2004 PC vote moved over to the Liberals in NV, Burnaby and Quadra. Indeed, add the 2000 Liberal vote in these ridings to the 2000 PC vote and you get almost exactly the Liberal vote in 2004. <BR/><BR/>To wit: <BR/><BR/>North Vancouver: 2000, Liberal 32.55, PC 7.09, 2004 Liberal 40.07. <BR/><BR/>Quadra: 2000, Liberal 43.81, PC 9.36, 2004 Liberal 52.38. <BR/><BR/>Burnaby: 2000, Liberals 24.71, PC 5.42, 2004 Liberals 32.55.<BR/><BR/>The reason the Liberals are in real trouble in Vancouver is that they have let the Conservatives off the social conservative hook. They were doing extremely well in wealthy, well educated communities such as Quadra and North Vancouver when the SSM issue was alive and well, but since then they have not bothered to take a position that would force Harper to play kissy face with Charles Mcvety. Charles McVety is literally a god sent. The Liberals should run McVety litmus test on their policies. If a policy would make McVety’s head explode, it’s a keeper. Seriously though, chances are if McVety hates it, it stands a good chance of being a winner in Canada’s three largest cities. Point Gray Red Tories, Shaughnessy professors, Kits yuppies and UBC dorm kids are not going stand by and watch the party Jerry Farwell cheering for win Quadra. It is just that simple.<BR/><BR/>I should mention something about the NDP. There strategy of attacking the Liberals first is not only daft, it is Ontariocentric. The combined support the two conservative parties dropped more than 21 points in that same 2004 election and the Liberals share of the popular vote went up only slightly (27.7 vs. 28.57). So, where did that support go? Most of it went to the NDP. At the same time as Alliance/new Conservative Party lost its status as a Western protest party the Federal NDP partly regained its status as one stopped being weighed down by its provincial brethren. As a result, for the first time since the 1988 election Federal voters returned to the NDP in droves. 9 ridings out of 10, the Grits and NDP are not battling for the same voter in BC. The Conservatives and NDP are.Kobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03407275645274060038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-83870085445706669472008-03-19T17:58:00.000-04:002008-03-19T17:58:00.000-04:00... I’d still be reading from some Con trolls how ...<I>... I’d still be reading from some Con trolls how it was a massive Liberal failure.</I><BR/><BR/>Hey, like I've said before, if you're lookin' for an echo chamber, *say* so.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I'm not best pleased by the pasting the Tories took in TO. But given that until recently I was in Trinity-Spadina, these sorts of results, unfortunately, don't come as a huge surprise (especially given the shenanigans involving the candidateS for the Tories) - even if they're not acceptable in the long run.<BR/><BR/>But a couple of things:<BR/><BR/>1. The Tories' "urban strategy" *did* do some good, one can only assume, in Vancouver Quadra.<BR/><BR/>2. You can say that the Tories put all hands on deck in VQ, and I'd be inclined to agree. But if the Libs *weren't* putting big-time effort into VQ instead ofwasting (in a sense) huge effort in yellow-dog Liberal ridings, then there's something wrong with their strategy. And I'm nobody's Liberal but I don't think the folks in campaign HQ are that dumb at all. (The SK riding was a "special case" situation for the Libs, in all sorts of negative ways; I don't think anyone was surprised by the final outcome there.)<BR/><BR/>3. Back to Tor-Centre - as much as it galls me, you're quite right to say that majority-seeking parties can't be satisfied with 12.5%, regardless of excuses. The Libs, of course, received similar results in the non-Outremont QC seats in the by-elections last fall; this suggests both contending parties have serious weak zones. But that leads to my final point...<BR/><BR/>4. At the risk of being a "Con troll" (yeesh), I'll point out that since the last federal election, the Tories have taken a seat away from the 2nd and 3rd-biggest parties in the House in by-elections, an environment where the governing party doesn't usually take away seats. And they came *very* close to taking another one away from each of those parties. Despite the harsh words about Harper et al, and despite the problems I readily admit exist with "my team's" strength in Toronto, I can't be too upset, so far - even if it aint enough.<BR/><BR/>(Oh, one more thing - if I *were* a Liberal, I'd be happier with MHF than with Bob, *especially* in the long term. You picked the right riding to be in, anyway!)Jason Hickmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17648786726787793783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-32989850051256371902008-03-19T16:59:00.000-04:002008-03-19T16:59:00.000-04:00Who is Martha Findlay and why is she considered a ...Who is Martha Findlay and why is she considered a "star"? Do you think she'll be placed higher in the Liberal shadow cabinet than Joyce Murray, who is a close-in Dion supporter?Budd Campbellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04194826986794514558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-7371767440771229622008-03-19T13:00:00.000-04:002008-03-19T13:00:00.000-04:00I'd like to digress for a minute and say how much ...I'd like to digress for a minute and say how much I prefer your blog over other Liblogs. This post, while still partisan, makes an effort at being fair for all parties (rather than merely cheerleading for the Liberals).<BR/><BR/>Your Liberal partisanship shines through, but you're not afraid to call it as it is, whether it's giving the Tories props once in a while, or chiding the Liberals for poor decisions.<BR/><BR/>Other Liberal partisan blogs would just rah-rah the Liberals and pooh-pooh the Tories. You've chosen to back away from that a bit, and make an effort to rah-rah where it's deserved, regardless of party.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the fair-er (as Dion likes to say... does he still say that anymore? Or did his advisers finally tell him it's not a word and he sounds goofy saying it?) analysis than other partisan blogs.Mike514https://www.blogger.com/profile/18375380983427133078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-66275500050889124522008-03-19T08:44:00.000-04:002008-03-19T08:44:00.000-04:00I suspect the Conservatives will revisit their str...I suspect the Conservatives will revisit their strategy of reinforcing certain NDP messaging in the hopes of the NDP gaining on the Liberals. Perhaps this will put an end to the very-right-wing blogs openly rooting for the NDP Official Opposition. The Conservatives may try to think of some way to move this strategy over to the Greens, but since the Greens really focus their attacks on the Conservatives (not the Liberals) I doubt there will be any similar strategy they can use.chhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08438801985270313684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-57278125868089512172008-03-19T00:17:00.000-04:002008-03-19T00:17:00.000-04:00I am hearing that the Conservative initially did n...I am hearing that the Conservative initially did not expect to do that well in Vancouver Quadra - thus no Harper.<BR/><BR/>The Conservatives were initially expecting/hoping a result similar to Outremont, with the Liberals losing to the NDP.<BR/><BR/>Conservative polling unexpectedly revealed that the NDP was not getting the support they expected (voters were going to the Greens rather than the NDP) and the Conservatives had a chance for a very respectable showing - thus the last minute, effective, get the vote out effort.MississaugaJoanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07302396652312132141noreply@blogger.com