tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post5130779192952563592..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Things can change, and campaigns matterUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-8525601911368160952011-03-16T12:33:51.661-04:002011-03-16T12:33:51.661-04:00Sure. By the same logic, of course, the wheels cou...Sure. By the same logic, of course, the wheels could fall off the Liberal party, just as it did with the Conservatives in '93. It's not a perfect analogy, but I don't think anyone predicted that outcome before the campaign started.Dennis (Second Thots)https://www.blogger.com/profile/05866015790089875825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-67220351364750737592011-03-16T11:23:14.412-04:002011-03-16T11:23:14.412-04:00Sure Denis, things can get better, or things can g...Sure Denis, things can get better, or things can get worse. I'm not saying things will change; merely that they can. The campaign will tell the tale. <br /><br />In 08, incidentally, the in-campaign polling was interesting. The first two weeks the CPC were in majority territory with an Liberal wipe-out. Then Dion stopped talking greenshift and started talking economy, and for a time in week 3/4 the LPC and CPC were neck in neck. Then near the end, with the ATV interview and other things, the wheels fell off and the CPC built enough of a lead to win a strengthened minority.<br /><br />Even in that campaign, there were several major shifts, caused by events on and off the campaign trail that couldn't have been predicted going in.<br /><br />We won't know what the next campaign will hold until we're there.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-49706805217214358702011-03-16T11:17:54.916-04:002011-03-16T11:17:54.916-04:00Of course, the idea that campaigns matter and can ...Of course, the idea that campaigns matter and can move the polls isn't anything new. Dion's people used the same argument in 2008, and they were kind of right. The polls did move, but not in the direction they preferred.<br /><br />The entire premise of the Liberals' current election strategy is that Iggy has to perform above expectations in an environment he's never been exposed to before against a battle-tested and battle-ready opponent. And he's dug himself a deeper hole than Dion did, too. <br /><br />Can things happen? Sure. Are they likely to happen the way you want? Not so sure.Dennis (Second Thots)https://www.blogger.com/profile/05866015790089875825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-34171899648560959362011-03-16T11:16:18.033-04:002011-03-16T11:16:18.033-04:00I think the polls are largely due to the taxpayer ...I think the polls are largely due to the taxpayer funded pro-government ads and the CPC funded attack ads. <br /><br />Every time we seem headed to an election Harper pulls out these ads. That is not going to change so what is the point in waiting? An election campaign means people start paying attention.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08112657859825911939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-29739328091426386102011-03-16T10:58:36.568-04:002011-03-16T10:58:36.568-04:00Excellent points about election campaigns. I do t...Excellent points about election campaigns. I do think we will see some different trends depending on how well the party leaders and their teams campaign.Skinny Dipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12818163310102120130noreply@blogger.com