tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post5465989522069899999..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Layton and Harper to meet for tea and crumpetsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-26326931221383503242009-08-25T23:18:35.048-04:002009-08-25T23:18:35.048-04:00There won't be an election this fall because t...There won't be an election this fall because the Liberals will roll over yet again.Malcolm+https://www.blogger.com/profile/08469936715413110334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-81741588564433153292009-08-25T16:16:45.526-04:002009-08-25T16:16:45.526-04:00If the government doesn't go down during this ...If the government doesn't go down during this fall,in my opinion it will then go down in the fall of 2010.<br /><br />Let me explain:<br /><br />1)I don't think parties would want an election during the Vancouver games. People won't have their minds on politics they would be too busy watching the games.<br /><br />2) Than comes the budget in the spring. Who would have the courage to bring down the government when they would be making promises of over $200 billions? Because that's our budget.<br /><br />3) By the time the budget it's adopted it's summer. We saw what happened before the summer recesses.<br /><br />This is how I came up with the fall of 2010.Of course they will have to survive this fall.What's your thought on this BCer? Does this make sense to you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-24605594268237560052009-08-25T13:54:30.303-04:002009-08-25T13:54:30.303-04:00Actually Devin, its my hypothetical Harper and Lay...Actually Devin, its my hypothetical Harper and Layton that would be grasping in this case.<br /><br />But seriously, I disagree with your disagreement. I didn't say the NDP is "out of money" but I did say "The NDP isn’t really in a financial position to wage an election this fall" and I stand by that.<br /><br />If I recall from your convention, the NDP reported a debt of $3.something million, which they expect to be paid off either next year or within a year, I don't recall which. They also said they have promises for bank (credit union) loans if there is a fall vote.<br /><br />So, yes, the NDP could finance a fall vote. But, assuming you're going to spend the max again, it would mean pilling millions of dollars on top of that existing $3m debt, which won't be paid off on that same timeline because you're be redirecting donations from debt repayment to election spending.<br /><br />So, yes, the NDP could financially fight an election this fall. But it would emerge with pretty significant debt, uncertain electoral results and, depending on how well the Cons do, perhaps the end of the per vote subsidy.<br /><br />Were I Jack, that would give me serious pause, and that's the point I was making on money.<br /><br />On polls, indeed, they're fluid. I don't have them all side by side now to do a comparison. So I'll grant your contention nationally you're near 08 levels. I'd note though that the Libs are up from 08, which will impact a number of splits. And the polls I've seen point to some key regional weakness for the NDP, particularly in Ontario, and pretty consistently for the last 6-8 months. I think you're at risk of dropping a number of seats in Ontario. You may pick up a few here or there in BC, the Prairies, maybe Atlantic Canada, but at best I think it would be a wash. And it could be worse.<br /><br />Certainly, there isn't visibility to net gains and my point was, were I Jack, that would give me pause as well, because I'd be concerned this would be my last election if I don't make strong gains. The incremental approach has been successful but I'd be worried, were I to drop seats, that patience could be lost.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-5587364351220655512009-08-25T13:41:01.088-04:002009-08-25T13:41:01.088-04:00I think your analysis is off. You say the NDP is o...I think your analysis is off. You say the NDP is out of money and down in the polls. The first is false and the second is overblown: the difference between our current poll numbers and the outcome of the last election is insignificant. I think you are grasping at straws here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-35215051565547803432009-08-25T13:31:56.976-04:002009-08-25T13:31:56.976-04:00Or it is Harper and Layton meeting to discuss thei...Or it is Harper and Layton meeting to discuss their joint campaign strategy. Maybe Harper will share some of his private poll numbers and give Layton some advice about where to put the most energy into his campaign.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08112657859825911939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-54039357486226893262009-08-25T13:27:09.852-04:002009-08-25T13:27:09.852-04:00I think Kady is right. This is all a show, to prov...I think Kady is right. This is all a show, to prove Harper is "trying to make parliament work". I am sure Iggy's invite is in the works.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06509182679650412982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-27481469292597477982009-08-25T12:33:02.884-04:002009-08-25T12:33:02.884-04:00Well, we know summer's over when the new seaso...Well, we know summer's over when the new season of programming is beginning - Canada's version of "Let's Make a Deal" new season is starting early and the same players/actors will be back.<br /><br />Harper and Layton - the "standard" coalition.RuralSandihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09552973218865121867noreply@blogger.com