tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post7530578827972822486..comments2024-02-07T16:22:39.625-05:00Comments on Jeff Jedras: Look beyond the pollsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-15614828339431557132010-01-09T14:32:51.046-05:002010-01-09T14:32:51.046-05:00P.P.S.
... Day 2 of polling... Greens get to 19....P.P.S.<br /><br />... Day 2 of polling... Greens get to 19.8%....<br /><br /><br />too too funny.Barcshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00797062032956713967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-21503311234775542932010-01-09T14:27:25.381-05:002010-01-09T14:27:25.381-05:00As a P.S.
I know this poll has a very large marg...As a P.S.<br /><br />I know this poll has a very large margin of error, <br /><br />But I find the Sask/Man portion that says Iggy has dropped to below 5% in the voting intention of Males... very very funny.<br /><br />But cheer up tho, He does lead among females voters again. Even if it is only in Ontario.Barcshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00797062032956713967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-20479454523884426592010-01-09T14:18:47.579-05:002010-01-09T14:18:47.579-05:00"The larger narrative is Harper's disdain..."The larger narrative is Harper's disdain for democracy,"<br /><br />I might agree with you Jim Bobby.<br /><br />And maybe even Marie<br /><br />"He's nothing but an opportunists"<br /><br /><br />But I do wonder....<br /><br />What did the 2 of you say when Chretien called an election barely 3 years into his mandate because it was tactically sound?... because Day Dared him to do it.<br /><br />What do you think of a party that is now sitting on its hands (Again) but yelling loudly that "they have no confidence" in one sentence and "but Canadians don't want an election" in the next. (the latter is a bunch of BS, since Canadians do relatively little different in an election than they do right now) They are sitting on their hands for one reason only (its the same reason as all 4 of the parties). They don't have winning conditions in place.<br /><br />What did you think about Martin ignoring a confidence vote for a couple days until he could... (bribe is an ugly word)... convince an opposition MP to join him out of the goodness of her principles... and be rewarded with a cabinet seat for those good principles. He did reestablish the confidence of the house in the end,....<br /><br /><br />You tell me... are all the opportunists only in the tory party? Yes?? How about all the hypocrites?Barcshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00797062032956713967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-38899402271027033412010-01-08T03:02:58.041-05:002010-01-08T03:02:58.041-05:00It's been said before and proven untrue, but i...It's been said before and proven untrue, but i'll venture there again -- Harper's credibility has taken a serious hit here, even those who aren't really following this are feeling something in the air. The whole fact that this is boiling over on facebook takes this into a new generational kind of region, young people have been more affected by the economic downturn than many other demographics, their general dissatisfaction with politics doesn't eliminate them from the equation -- just look at Obama. His wave evolved from an anti-bush movement. Not to get too far ahead but I do see opportunity here; as Ted notes small steps have often led to the biggest wins.rockfishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02835472375196889875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-48425951734841293142010-01-07T17:49:08.648-05:002010-01-07T17:49:08.648-05:00Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity her...Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity here if managed correctly. Now is the time to start presenting an outline of alternatives to Conservative policy that the Liberals have. That is how we access the "not sure" or the undecided. It must be kept simple and straight forward, it must speak directly to the undecided voters needs, which appears to be clarity as to direction. Harper has a long record now of murkiness and blatant reversals(eg.income trusts). <br />It will be of paramount importance to be sure to use information soon to be released by the PBO to advantage. Since the economy is the priority according to Harper I would suggest the Liberal caucus first meet with Kevin Page when his reports are released. They should include all upcoming confirmed candidates in this. <br />Next of great importance will be the Auditor Generals report which will not be released until the HOC sits, as she is an Officer of Parliment. This means that the Opposition parties are going to have to bite the bullet on the throne speech, and the budget. Allowing of course for some procedural manouvering for some delay, and to show the actual lack of support for them. <br />Once the AG reports and the conference has happened in Montreal, it may be time to move. A summer of thoughtful repose for the public and the opposition may better serve the objective of removing the Conservatives from government. This would have to be determined on an ongoing basis. <br />It may also allow some time for the infighting to begin with the Conservatives, the polls say to me it is just below the surface. Once the iron fist of Harper is released, it is a forgone conclusion what will happenJtheMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11536137116563449229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-84317485517653028532010-01-07T17:45:48.789-05:002010-01-07T17:45:48.789-05:00Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity her...Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity here if managed correctly. Now is the time to start presenting an outline of alternatives to Conservative policy that the Liberals have. That is how we access the "not sure" or the undecided. It must be kept simple and straight forward, it must speak directly to the undecided voters needs, which appears to be clarity as to direction. Harper has a long record now of murkiness and blatant reversals(eg.income trusts). <br />It will be of paramount importance to be sure to use information soon to be released by the PBO to advantage. Since the economy is the priority according to Harper I would suggest the Liberal caucus first meet with Kevin Page when his reports are released. They should include all upcoming confirmed candidates in this. <br />Next of great importance will be the Auditor Generals report which will not be released until the HOC sits, as she is an Officer of Parliment. This means that the Opposition parties are going to have to bite the bullet on the throne speech, and the budget. Allowing of course for some procedural manouvering for some delay, and to show the actual lack of support for them. <br />Once the AG reports and the conference has happened in Montreal, it may be time to move. A summer of thoughtful repose for the public and the opposition may better serve the objective of removing the Conservatives from government. This would have to be determined on an ongoing basis. <br />It may also allow some time for the infighting to begin with the Conservatives, the polls say to me it is just below the surface. Once the iron fist of Harper is released, it is a forgone conclusion what will happen.JtheMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11536137116563449229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-19442629548030925142010-01-07T15:15:10.671-05:002010-01-07T15:15:10.671-05:00I think it's a good issue to rally Harper oppo...<i>I think it's a good issue to rally Harper opponents behind and to use as part of a larger narrative, but I'm skeptical it will actually move a lot of votes.</i><br /><br />The larger narrative is Harper's disdain for democracy, transparency and accountability. With regard to the detainee issue, he shows disdain for human decency. <br /><br />The public only now knows what a prorogue is because previous prorogation was not done for nefarious purposes. He's abusing the rules, certainly in spirit if not to the letter. <br /><br />The Cons are all over the media these days makin' excuses for proroguing. Jack and Mike and Gilles are squandering a massive opportunity.<br /><br />JBJimBobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04603665575714484326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-29615824658318584432010-01-07T14:52:20.066-05:002010-01-07T14:52:20.066-05:00Still, only 11% of voters are following the prorog...Still, only 11% of voters are following the prorogation story closely and 2/3 of Canadians aren't even following it at all.<br /><br />I think it's a good issue to rally Harper opponents behind and to use as part of a larger narrative, but I'm skeptical it will actually move a lot of votes.calgarygrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-19201531876972465132010-01-07T14:20:54.682-05:002010-01-07T14:20:54.682-05:00That is why Libs are not reaping lost Con support....That is why Libs are not reaping lost Con support.<br />The long term effects of the 2008 Lib coalition.<br /><br />Sorry Wilson. Your simply speculating just like your lousy Harper has been doing. Unless your an insider too valid info which I doubt, I think you had better quit making those kind of statements. <br /><br />Now I wonder how Harper is feeling today after reading the latest polls. 9OOPS!9 I forgot, he doesn't read Canadian news so he says another lie no doubt) and how Canadians through these polls are telling them that they DO care about the detainee issue and the Con reform Copenhagen farce and this Parougi thing. You think maybe he will change his <br />tactics again? Can he be that stupid again? YUO he can and he will try again I have no doubt.<br /><br />I do. He's nothing but an opportunists and anything he tries again may work anymore as Canadians are now seeing him for what he really is and has been since day one.<br /><br />Bring on an election. Canadians will know its money well spent to oust his sorrybackside right out of the country.mariehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07878825121729826425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-86020598694885552232010-01-07T13:47:03.059-05:002010-01-07T13:47:03.059-05:00'The New LiberGreen Party of Canada, maybe?...'The New LiberGreen Party of Canada, maybe?'<br /><br />or maybe a new LibDem Party...<br />see BCer,<br />the Opps (Libs included) don't think in terms of a strong Liberal party, it's like the LPC is no more.wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03589410224972050999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-89190457572205813402010-01-07T13:44:23.458-05:002010-01-07T13:44:23.458-05:00'an alternative government'
That is why L...'an alternative government'<br /><br />That is why Libs are not reaping lost Con support.<br />The long term effects of the 2008 Lib coalition.<br /><br />Where even Lib supporters do not see the LPC as a stand alone federal party, <br />but as a lead member of a coalition.<br /><br />Has that train left the station?<br />Have Lib supporters stopped envisioning a Lib majority, ever again?<br />I'd say yes.wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03589410224972050999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-61062925933303760382010-01-07T13:39:36.482-05:002010-01-07T13:39:36.482-05:00Dana: To where is the only question.
The New Libe...Dana: <i>To where is the only question.</i><br /><br />The New LiberGreen Party of Canada, maybe?<br /><br />;-)JimBobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04603665575714484326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-29772791297219519132010-01-07T12:58:16.673-05:002010-01-07T12:58:16.673-05:00Another factor that may play with all this is that...Another factor that may play with all this is that Harper could end up splitting his own vote and fracture his party back into the reformers and PCers.<br /><br />The reformers don't have much respect for Canadian institutions, including or perhaps especially Parliament - but - old PCers do. The disaffected Liberals who moved over to the Cons do as well. <br /><br />If the contempt for Parliament is perceived as part and parcel of an overall contempt for all our institutions of governance and civil life then those Con voters who don't want to join that parade will defect. Maybe permanently.<br /><br />To where is the only question.Danahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12465953801145126160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-27685382550524689032010-01-07T12:07:53.292-05:002010-01-07T12:07:53.292-05:00Good bloggin' Jeff.
I'm only half joking...Good bloggin' Jeff. <br /><br />I'm only half joking when I say that i think the Greens should swallow up the Liberals like Reform swallowed up the PCs. <br /><br />That "unusual" bump for the GPC might have something to do with the fact that Elizabeth may was first out of the gate with a strong denunciation of the prorogation and a call for citizens to kick and scream. We're all still waiting for Jack and Iggy to grow a pair and get up on their hindlegs.<br /><br />Our national embarrassment at Copenhagen may be having a belated or cumulative effect. We saw May in Copenhagen representing the environmental attitudes of the majority of Canadians while Harper was transparently supporting big oil and dirty tar sands.<br /><br />Sorry to say it but MI has been a big letdown... from Dion, no less. All he needs to do is what Elizabeth may has been doing: talk to the people in their own language about the things that matter... without being afraid to promote some well-developed policy. Basic politics. <br /><br />Since I know you and Jason are insiders, here's some advice from an old streetfighter. Get the party to quietly but effectively assist the grassroots amateurs who are doing their damnedest to organize pro-democracy rallies on Jan 23. This is the moment. Seize it.JimBobbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04603665575714484326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-52572652763387351442010-01-07T12:04:45.685-05:002010-01-07T12:04:45.685-05:00Jeff:
Your "frustration posts" of the l...Jeff:<br /><br />Your "frustration posts" of the last few days have been very good.<br /><br />Bryan Mulroney started way behind in the polls and only gained traction when he was able to show Canadians he had something more to offer than just opposing patronage.<br /><br />"Yesterday's Man" Jean Chretien started from way behind in the polls against Campbell until the Red Book came out.<br /><br />"Hidden Agenda" Harper started way behind Martin - about where Ignatieff is right now in fact - until he added some basic sense of policy and priorities to his arsenal of opposition.<br /><br />Harris in 1995. Newt Gingrich in 1994. McGuinty in 2003. The list of examples goes on.<br /><br />In each case, the population was ripe for a transfer of allegiance, and in each case Canadians wanted to seem something more than just opposition: just show us the basics, show us you aren't going to screw things up worse, that you are not just about getting into power.<br /><br />And the bar was set pretty low on the opposition: Chretien's Red Book and Harris's "Common Sense Revolution" were the highwater mark, but Harper's "policiettes" (as Coyne called them) in 2006 or Mulroney's platform in 1984 were not ground shaking stuff.<br /><br />You have to answer the very simple question: what are you about?<br /><br />And we really haven't answered that question.<br /><br />So with these polls, Harper may have been too clever by half with the prorogation. We can make it too clever by a quarter if we take advantage and use the time to present an alternative government.Ted Bettshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06223729391428982448noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19402125.post-47500657558157133342010-01-07T11:50:46.195-05:002010-01-07T11:50:46.195-05:00Since Angus Reid is giving percentages without har...Since Angus Reid is giving percentages without hard numbers, I bet they'll be releasing voter intention results with tomorrow morning's paper.<br /><br />I think you're right in general, but I also think you're oversimplifying. While the Liberals have work to do, that doesn't mean the work isn't getting done. Be more optimistic!Jason Cherniakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12473304114206630747noreply@blogger.com