Saturday, July 01, 2006

Survey says

The poll box was a little obtrusive on my sidebar, and I think after 61 votes it’s about as statistically valid as a Web poll is going to get, so I’ve taken it down. The bottom-line of the results: if Harper pulls the plug in the Fall, the respondents think he’ll maintain a government of some sort.

The question was “If Harper forces a fall election, what will the result be?

  1. 16 votes, or 26.2 per cent, said A Larger Conservative Minority
  2. 12 votes, or 19.7 per cent, said A Conservative Majority
  3. 12 votes, or 19.7 per cent, said A Liberal Minority
  4. 10 votes, or 16.4 per cent, said A Smaller Conservative Minority
  5. 9 votes, or 14.8 per cent, said the U.S. Annexes Alberta for the Oil Sands
  6. 2 votes, or 3.3 per cent, said A Liberal Majority
  7. 0 said an NDP Minority (Sorry Jack)
So, breaking it down a bit most think the Liberals will stay in the penalty box a bit longer, and that Harper will stay in minority territory. As I said previously, I think the Liberals would pull off a minority in such a scenario.

There’s a few wildcards though. How the government falls, who is seen to blame, and who the Liberals have as leader. This poll was also before the Conservative donation scandal, if that has legs that’s another wildcard.

Really though, I don’t think Harper would be dumb enough to go this fall, although if his arrogance overwhelms his brains who knows, and I wouldn't want to bet against his arrogance.

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1 comment:

Peter said...

It's this fall.

A summer of leadership candidates putting forth their conflicting liberal views of liberalism (i.e. Ignatieff and Brison vs. the rest on Afghanistan) will allow Harper to steam roll over a confused and not election-ready opposition. I would not be surprised if the NDP indirectly/directly help force the elction.

A 28 day election is all Harper needs to get his majority.