Another trip in the fundraising spincycle

As was the talk on the blogsphere last night and this morning, the LPC messed up the release of updated leadership fundraising numbers yesterday. I’m not sure of the accuracy of these figures, but let’s assume they are for now.

There’s been some spin of the numbers in a bad way for my guy, but I really think that’s a shortsighted and inaccurate way of looking at the numbers. In fact, I think the big winners here are Stephane Dion and Gerard Kennedy.

But first, let’s look at the total figures reported yesterday,:

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UPDATE: These numbers are more of a mess then I'd initially realized and frankly, it's tough to make sense of it all. Some numbers the LPC released have been updated by the candidates to July 31st, some haven't.

The Rae figure reported below is from the campaign until July 31st. The Ignatieff figure is from the LPC release reported as of July 31st, reports from his campaign say that figure is low, but I haven't heard another number. Kennedy's number was updated by his campaign to August 12th, so that skews these numbers somewhat. Volpe is current to July 31st, updated by the campaign. Brison, Dion and Bennett's numbers were updated by their campaigns below as of Aug. 22. Dryden, Hall-Findlay and Fry are from the release as of July 31st, Dryden's camp says the true number is over $100k.

So where does that leave all these nice little charts I made this morning? Worth even less than earlier. Still, I think the basic trends the numbers indicate are still valid. Even if it's not a true apples to apples comparison, it's still fair to say Kennedy has been doing well, and Dion has made a strong comeback. The bottom four still have some decisions to make. Just take it all with a few more grains of salt.

I apologize for the confusion.

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OK, not many surprises, Rae and Ignatieff still the leaders, and Volpe is up there. Kennedy with a very strong showing . The back four still well back. The concern I’ve heard expressed is Dion still lagging well back of the leaders, and how will he ever pay back all those loans. While I do wonder why they structured the campaign that way (actually, I suspect starting further back of the pack with less first choice support meant a smaller team that had to focus more on memberships than fundraising in phase one, and is now building both momentum, support and fundraising), I’m far from ready to panic yet. In fact, I'm optimistic, and even confident.

Because here’s another, more revealing and illustrating way to look at it. Let’s compare the fundraising numbers circa July 31^st to the fundraising numbers reported a month ago that were current as of June 30^th, and rank the candidates by $ increase over that one month period.

Well, that certainly puts a different spin on things, doesn't it? It was a big month for Kennedy; if fundraising is any indicator rumors of his death were greatly exaggerated. While they started with big leads, Ignatieff and Rae were at the back of the contender pack this month. Volpe, Brison and Dion well back of Kennedy but all within $8k. Again, the bottom four well back of the rest.

Just a note, as I’m said I’m not sure of the accuracy of these figures, esp. since it shows Fry’s numbers went down. Grain of salt.

And finally, let’s take a look at the percentage increase when we compare the June numbers to the July numbers. This will illustrate one of those oh so important factors in politics: momentum.

Now that’s definitely interesting. It was a huge month for Dion, with a large increase in fundraising activity in July and a whopping 380 per cent increase in donations. Clearly, a) the campaign is placing more emphasis on fundraising with the membership deadline passed, as it said it would, and b) as people evaluate the field many of them are coming over to the Dion camp. A very impressive performance by Kennedy as well, Brison is still a contender, and Volpe continues his fundraising strength. Interestingly, Ignatieff and Rae lag back by this indicator, indicating that either a) their momentum is slowing, or b)they’ve tapped their major sources and/or met their numbers and are slowing down their fundraising machines. Again, the bottom four lag well back.

So, there’s a lot of numbers for you to chew on. What does it all mean? Hey, who knows. As I’ve said before, no one needs to amass huge war chests. You only need to raise and spend so much to be a contender and have a shot in Montreal, anything over a certain figure just means sausage rolls instead of cocktail wieners in the hospitality suites.

I’m confident that with the momentum he has shown and the fundraisers held this month and still scheduled Dion will be just fine. Clearly the fundraising momentum is on his side. Kennedy should have put himself back among the top contenders, not that he ever left them in my estimation. Brison showed strength, Volpe as well, and Rae and Ignatieff had already established their standing.

If I took anything from these many numbers, it would be that Bennett, Dryden, Hall-Findlay and Fry have some hard thinking to do. Clearly their fundraising is drying up. They need to consider if they’ve raised enough to get through to December and Montreal. If they can do it, go for it. If they haven’t, they should consider bidding adieu before delegate selection in late September.

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