Pollsmoking the nation

I'm hesitant to wade into this whole nation resolution minefield, but I came across some interesting polling numbers on the whole thing yesterday that I thought I'd pass on.

Not sure if these have been discussed already or not. I found them on the Angus Reid Web site but the numbers are apparently from an SES phone survey conducted last week. The numbers, unsurprisingly, show that while the LPC(Q)'s nation resolution finds some support in Quebec, it's kryptonite to the party in the rest of Canada.

Here's the numbers:

If the Liberal Party of Canada adopted a motion to symbolically recognize Quebec as a nation, would you be more likely to vote Liberal, less likely to vote Liberal or would this have no impact on your likelihood to vote Liberal?

	All	Quebec
More likely to vote Liberal	16%	40%
Less likely to vote Liberal	40%	12%
No impact on vote	36%	40%
Unsure	8%	8%

So, in Quebec it is a potential winner, increasing our "more likely" vote by 40 per cent. I'd wager a chunk of them are BQers that will like it but will still vote BQ. But nationally (so to speak), any gains would be destroyed and then some, as 40 per cent of the entire country would be less likely to vote Liberal. I'd also mention that those national numbers include the Quebec numbers. Exclude them and the Liberal drop in the Rest of Canada would be even larger.

The numbers just serve to affirm that this nation resolution is a bad idea. I agree that Quebec has concerns that need to be addressed, but we can't look at Quebec's concerns in isolation from the rest of Canada. That's the mistake that I think was made here. Other provinces have concerns too, and we need to find solutions and compromises that will find the support of all Canadians, otherwise this is a fruitless exercise that will sow division and discord rather that heal it.

There are no easier answers here. That's why sage veterans of Canada's constitutional wars (like Stephane Dion, for example) approach this with trepidation and have tried to warn off those that have advocated this road.

In the long run, it will take deftness, creativity and compromise to thread this needle.

In the short-term, we need a way out of this national resolution mess and soon, as the convention is less than two weeks away. I've advocated the 2050 approach, James Curran has another idea. It may not be as easy as killing it now. Expectations have been raised in Quebec and a flat rejection now will have a price.

Whatever we do, we need to do something. As the poll numbers show, this thing is radioactive and a very bad idea.

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