Is Harper looking for his Sister Souljah moment?

As we eagerly await the big shadow cabinet announcement this morning my mind is on the environment; more specifically, the oil sands, and Steve Harper's election strategy. Two interesting stories this morning seem to be setting up an interesting potential political opportunity for Steve: His Sister Souljah moment.

The first story (Steve, Scott and Jason have more) represents an intriguing challenge for the Harper Conservatives and their traditional Alberta power base:

The U.S. wants Canada to dramatically expand its oil exports from the Alberta oilsands, a move that could have major implications on the environment. U.S.and Canadian oil executives and government officials met for a two-day oil summit in Houston in January 2006 and made plans for a “fivefold expansion” in oilsands production… A fivefold increase would mean the exportation of five million barrels a day, which would supply a quarter of current American consumption and add up to almost half of all U.S. imports. But the current extraction of oil from the tarsands results in the spewing of millions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere: it’s already the biggest source of new greenhouse gas emissions in Canada.

So, Bush and the U.S. want more oil (insert mandatory Harper/Bush wisecrack here) and you know Alberta dearly wants to give it to them. We're talking big bucks here. And Harper's base, of course, is Alberta. But how to square the desires of his Alberta base with the resulting environmental impact of such a massive increase in production, particularly with Harper's need to at least look green if he wants to grow elsewhere in Canada?

Coincidentally or not, I also read this story today. Environment Minister John Baird is musing about killing tax incentives the Liberal government brought in back in 1997 to encourage development in the oil sands. What's this, the Cons musing about killing tax breaks that largely benefit Alberta industry?

Environment Minister John Baird questioned the wisdom of tax incentives introduced in the 1990s to boost production in Alberta's oilsands, and hinted yesterday the Conservative government might have more to say on the issue when it tables its spring budget…"I cannot explain why the Liberal government of [new leader Stephane] Dion made these changes," Mr. Baird said, speaking in French.

Hmm, I wonder if my BT friends will be calling Baird a socialist now, like they called Dion when he mused about reducing royalty incentives last week? Yeah, I doubt it. Anyway, Baird's silly partisan shots aside, while I'd point out the situation was a lot different in 1997 the incentives are no longer necessary today and I'd agree with scrapping or reducing them. Interesting comments by Baird though, given the likely negative reaction that can be expected from Alberta industry.

What's coming?

Using this desired five times production increase as an impetus (and Natural Resources Canada participated, so he knew it was coming) Harper has the opportunity to say this forces me to bring in tough measures to minimize the resulting environmental impact. If Baird's musings are any indication, he is prepared to give the oil industry some tough medicine. And with Harper's rumoured equalization plans he's already shown he's willing to trade Western votes for support elsewhere.

And by showing the rest of the country he's willing to stand up to his Alberta base, and on the environment no less, he will have established his centrist credentials in the minds of voters, not to mention taking the Green issue away from the opposition.

And Steve will have his Sister Souljah moment.

The budget, and Clean Air Act Part Deux, will tell the tale.

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