Since we always like to pooh-pooh all pollsters save SES, when the Sage Nanos speaks we should all listen. And while SES has the parties in a horse race, its latest leadership numbers are troubling for the Liberals (download the pdf).
Particularly if, as Wells contends, the leadership numbers foreshadow the horse race numbers. If so, the trends shown here would argue for the Cons to engineer a spring vote and the Libs to work darned hard to avoid one, since it appears those Con attack ads are well positioned to pay dividends:
As you can see Steve Harper has made big gains over the last year across the board on trustworthiness, competency and best vision. Meanwhile, Dion lies well back of Harper in all categories and, more troubling, scored worse than Paul Martin on competency and vision.
This needs to serve as a wake-up call to Liberals and we need to take away two messages: Stephen Harper is resonating with Canadians in a way many Liberals have not cared to admit and Canadians don't know Stephane Dion and until they do (and hopefully positively) they'd rather stick with the not so scary Harper.
We've been talking much about the need to define Dion but it clearly isn't happening, and the Cons may well beat us to the punch if we let them. This poll would seem to show our communications strategy has not been working.
While you and I may have a hard time seeing Harper as trustworthy, competent and having any vision beyond getting a majority, the fact is Canadians would seem to disagree. That's not their fault, it's ours. We need to do a better job of going after Harper in these areas; certainly there is fertile material here. This stacking the benches story today would be an excellent example. We need to expose the difference between the Harper rhetoric and the Harper action.
But more than that, we need to move up Dion's numbers on trustworthiness, competency and vision. And that ties into the debate at Jason and Jonathan's today. I believe firmly we need to broaden the scope of our message beyond just the environment. It's incredibly important, yes, but the election will not be won on Kyoto alone.
I believe strongly in the three pillars approach, and connecting environmental sustainable development. It's a powerful message, and trying it to jobs and the economy is particularly important. But that doesn't mean we forget the other two pillars, economic management and social justice.
I know the environment was a big part of Stephane's victory, that’s undeniable, although it wasn't the only large contributing factor; the victory was a perfect storm of a variety of factors from the environment to being a consensus candidate everyone could agree on to a handful of Kennedy voters deciding to give Martha a boost on the first ballot. But a leadership race is very, very different from a general election. Recent history teaches us that lesson pretty clearly.
I'm not saying forget the environment, that would be a mistake and besides, it'd look silly. But dial it back a bit. Talk more about those megatons of jobs, and the economic opportunities of a green economy. After all, people vote out of self interest. But also we need to start articulating a broader vision.
And Dion is more than just the former Environment Minister. I was first attracted to Stephane because I knew him as the brilliant, take no prisoners unity minister that wouldn't take shit from the separatists. Look at his performance in those unity debates, now that's leadership. Let's have a little more of that piss and vinegar.
Why not a big speech on foreign affairs and Canada's place in the world? What's our plan for Afghanistan? For African development? For trade? Remember day care and early childhood education, do we have some new ideas there?
During the leadership campaign Stephane talked about canceling the Cons' next promised one per cent cut in the GST and investing the money in fighting child poverty. That's very powerful, why aren't we talking about that? And reviving the Kelowna Accord and offering ideas for fighting Native poverty?
These are all Liberal issues, great Liberal issues, and they're part of the other two Liberal pillars. And they are all issues that speak to the values of Canadians, and paint a contrast between us and the Conservatives. Alongside the environment they would provide a compelling vision for Canadians, one that would resonate.
And, when viewed side by side with Harper's grab-bag of pseudo-action points, the contrast would be striking indeed.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Liberal wake-up call
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36 comments:
This is normal for people to think a sitting prime minister is the best leder. It's not a big deal.
Jeff,
Good post. One question:
During the leadership campaign Stephane talked about canceling the Cons' next promised one per cent cut in the GST and investing the money in fighting child poverty. That's very powerful, why aren't we talking about that? And reviving the Kelowna Accord and offering ideas for fighting Native poverty?
That's weird, cause I could have sworn that just a week or two ago, he said he'd repeal the GST cut, and instead use the savings for environmentally friendly "transformative" tax cuts.
Simply, Dion needs a clear, unambiguous "5 priorities" style promises. He needs specific priorities that do not change and won't be modified by temporary shifts in the political climate.
People try to talk about the 3 pillars as if they are clear and somehow similar to Harpers very specific 5 priorities. But they're not. They're as ambiguous and open to interpretation as all hell. Social justice? What the hell is that? Peoples opinions on social justice are as varied as their opinions on pizza toppings (I like milk duds, for example).
Ambiguous "principles" don't win elections (he might as well promise to treat Canadians with respect and kindness). He needs to figure out exactly what he's going to do, and make that clear.
I will summarize it by saying that the CPC are in government and the Liberals aren't.
Olaf, the reason why the 3 pillars are not clear is because the new leader has been elected in December. Normally it takes about two years for it to be packaged and sold to the public. For Harper's five priorities, it took one year and a half so it is within that same range of time.
We have a "communications strategy"...?
Who knew?
Mushroom,
Olaf, the reason why the 3 pillars are not clear is because the new leader has been elected in December. Normally it takes about two years for it to be packaged and sold to the public. For Harper's five priorities, it took one year and a half so it is within that same range of time.
Um, nope. It's because the 5 priorities were more or less unambiguous. Harper didn't say he was going to 'make government corruption less likely', he said he was going to 'pass a rigorous Accountability Act'. He didn't say he would 'strengthen the family unit', he said he would 'give parents $100/month/child'. He didn't say he was a fan of 'tax fairness', he said he'd 'cut the GST by 2 points'.
Dion needs clear promises like this that will resonate, not absurdly ambiguous "pillars" which no sane politician could dispute. My point is that saying you're for environmental sustainability doesn't mean anything: everyone is ostensibly for "environmental sustainability". Same goes for economic growth and social justice (no one runs on a plank of social injustice). He needs to turn these platitudes into tangible promises that captures the attention of the public. Or not, I don't really care.
i enjoyed your post.
we have to remember, when it comes time to vote, for many it comes down to all or one or one of many combinations of:
vision of canada via the party, and/or the leader, and / or local riding candidate.
as in general conversation with various others as of late, many are not happy with harper or the conservatives.
yet, as much as the environment is an issue, the liberal party has to expand an upfront offering of other issues. at the same time, if they aren't sold on dion, but are still inspired by the liberal mandate, they will vote liberal. this swing vote is and counts.
To an extent, I would agree with Olaf, in that the three pillars may seem ambiguous, but in fairness, the "platform" is being developed. He's been leader for 2 months for heaven's sake.
Jeff, I would say that Harper is resonating a)because Dion is still not well known and b) the Lib's need to do a much better job of not so much defining Harper, but being very clear about who is is and what he has actually done.
The Conservative's are good at reducing their accomplishments to soundbytes. We should be equally adept at stating precisely what these accomplishments really are, (repackaging) and pointing out what fundamental changes are taking place in this country.
I agree with your suggestions, the key of course being, getting the media to cover it.
I went to convention as an undeclared delegate and had the chance to meet Dion personally before I decided who I would back and vote for.
The guy is great at getting his points across and he does have a variety of opinions on all topics.
He received a lot of First Nations votes (those that didn't support Ignatieff) based on his paper on issues.
There is only so much we can do as liberals to get his message out. It has to start coming from him, too. Especially him.
There is an appearance on being a one-issue man, and I get this all the time from my friends and family. To my FN friends I point out his rather detailed plan on FN issues and to others I point out what "three pillars" means. And if those close to me don't understand him and what he stands for, what about all the others who don't have someone as spectacular as me in their lives to point them in the right direction?
People vote for what they know. Stephane Dion has to let them know who he is. And soon.
I have complete faith the general public will be inspired by him as I was - seriously, I'm firmly in the Dion kool-aid drinking category - once they get to know him.
It can't just be about the environment. He has so much more to offer Canada than that.
Jeff,
Good post and I agree with you that we need to define ourselves more broadly than on the environment issue. We still seem to be running into the wall of everytime we take a position on something we are reminded of our past positions or our past record; making a clean break has been harder than simply choosing a new leader.
I still won't sweat it. SES still has us tied with the Conservatives where it REALLY counts--with the voters. Dion is still relatively unknown (most people don't even know who the leader of the opposition is. I dont expect they know who the Intergovernmental Affairs/Environment Minister is) and he has time to improve.
KNB,
To an extent, I would agree with Olaf, in that the three pillars may seem ambiguous, but in fairness, the "platform" is being developed. He's been leader for 2 months for heaven's sake.
Very true. I didn't mean to say he should necessarily have it all figured out by now, but if he sticks to these talking points and isn't able to turn them into a few clear promises, he'll have trouble.
I don't think that Dion will have trouble putting meat on the bone, although I do think he might have trouble putting too much meat on the bone. For example, about environmental sustainability, the many has more ideas than Suzuki, which is good, but difficult to sell. He needs to condense it into a few clear promises that resonate, and leave the rest relatively unmentioned (except in a comprehensive policy document). That's all. We'll see if he's able to do this, but I do think that Harper benefited from having a clear agenda, where as Martin muddied the waters with all his promises.
One of the best CPC press releases I remember from the elections, was one which started with a Martin quote, where he said "if you have 50 priorities, you have none". The press release went on to list 60 something priorities of the Martin's government. If Dion sticks to his environment only platform, and tries to make the case that he would be best for the environment by describing 12-15 different initiatives, people will lose interest.
Jeff,
Great post. I absolutely agree, we need to firmly establish the three pillar approach (not just the environment) as the right vision for Canada.
Further, we need to show how this vision of Canada contrasts with Harper's.
Finally, we need to show Canadians that we can cut them a better deal on such issues as; childcare, aboriginal health and poverty, economic policy, research and development, the environment, and international relations.
I don't think that we can reduce ourselves to a 5 priorities approach like Olaf suggests. Rather, we need to show Canadians that we can offer them a better deal.
Tax cuts, a bloating military budget, a pale reincarnation of climate change programs, delivering nothing on childcare and Aboriginal issues, cutting funding to women's shelters and literacy programs (during a time of surplus)... This is the true legacy of Harper.
Liberals can offer Canadians a better deal.
We don't disagree Olaf. Concise is good, though I'd argue that Harper dumbed things down, which I see as a problem, no matter how successful it was.
Canada and it's systems, checks and balances, and institutions are complex. I think we do Canadian's a disservice by reducing everything that Government does, to 5 simple things.
That said, yes, he has to make it easy to digest. I think he'd fare well by assigning some aspects of the upcoming plan to high profile MP's and get all of them out there "s'plaining", concisely.
The idiotic messing with the judiciary today, for instance, needs to be explained. Who in Canada knows how it works? Very few I imagine, but the change that he intends will have consequences that all of us should know about. How do you explain that in simple terms...not sure.
I suspect that the fall back to "US style politics", won't work, but I have to say that I look to media for that fact of that not being heeded. I'm not one who buy's that everything Harper does is a carbon copy of the Rep's, but there are aspects of his agenda that do mirror. The media seems to have bought Harper's "sheep" cloak and that is a shame.
Clearly, I'm not the person to suggest how to accomplish this in a succinct manner, lol, but I do agree it's important.
Ever considered that Dion's message is very clear, and Canadians are moving away from the Libs because they have morphed into the NDP??
Good post. I agree Dion needs to expand the Liberal message beyond Kyoto. Harper has left himself wide open and the Liberals fail to capitalize on his mis-steps which happen virtually daily. What's going on at Lib headquarters?? Get with it and now! It is getting frustrating to see the Liberals failing to get out their message just like the last election. They need new advisors.
wilson, in a word, no.
That is what you and your ilk are trying to paint using very original phrases like, "soft on crime", "flip flop", etc. Keep parroting that nonsense, because you make the case for the "US" style of doing things.
We all know where that is going in the States.
You know, we've always had political differences in this country, but the objective was always to present a point a view and garner support. Now, thanks to the current Government, it's about dividing the country, the "with us or agin us".
That is not who we are, or at least all but 30 something %.
I'm happy to debate policy with a Progressive Conservative. Commenter's like yourself are not about debate. You are all about debasing decent people to get "points". Having watched what that has done in the US, I'm not interested in our country doing that. You want to walk around with boxing gloves on, so be it. I don't choose to live that way.
The environment is a fickle issue.
Today in Quebec, PM Cartman is a hero on the environment.
I wanna throw up, but seriously watch the news...
Wells is right that leadership numbers foreshadow horse race numbers but the sitting PM always has an advantage.
After a year of not eating babies, of course Harper will be seen as more trustworthy than he was on Jan 22nd, 2006.
I am inclined to agree that the leadership numbers are a function of the fact that Harper actually has the job of PM. Give me a couple more horse race numbers like Leger and I will start to worry.
As for "broadening the message", I would point out that while Harper is trying to polish his green credentials, he can't really do much else.
And the general trend in the numbers seems to argue that Canadians find his government minimally competent but don't like its policies much. So while the Libs/NDP/ etc can't talk about anything but the environment, either can the Tories.
And remember what a flop the GST cut has been. Didn't move the numbers one iota, cuz basically it got eaten up long before anything got to the consumer. Outside of the environment, there's not much else this government has done that has appeal outside of its traditional base.
So now is NOT the time for nervous Nellies.
ur full of shit, do ur homework, harper is about 36 percent aprouval rating, no where to grow, and when the election is called, sooner the better, the liberal party under Dion will defeat them witout a sweat...
bigcitylib And remember what a flop the GST cut has been. Didn't move the numbers one iota, cuz basically it got eaten up long before anything got to the consumer. Outside of the environment, there's not much else this government has done that has appeal outside of its traditional base.
Where are you seeing that reflected? What they paint seems to be eaten up, just like the stupid "child care" program.
calgary grit, After a year of not eating babies, of course Harper will be seen as more trustworthy than he was on Jan 22nd, 2006
The problem is, he is eating the babies/policies of this country, behind closed doors, in secret, the same way that all devious people endulge. The problem is, nobody see's it, no one reports on it, so we, the public, don't know.
I see this as a serious problem...though I give him credit for achieving it. He's very clever, IMO, but I wish he was countered by equally clever strategy by the Lib's and some objectivity by the media. They seem to be back in the days of the election and that, I think, is worrisome for the country.
Olaf,
That's weird, cause I could have sworn that just a week or two ago, he said he'd repeal the GST cut, and instead use the savings for environmentally friendly...
During the leadership campaign I recall a major plank was canceling the 6 to 5 per cent cut for measures to fight child poverty, such as an increase in the child tax benefit. I hadn't seen the announcement you mentioned but I just found it, and yeah, I don't know what's up there. Has there been a change, does he want to do both? I don't know. I'd be rather disappointed if the child poverty promise was shelved.
Simply, Dion needs a clear, unambiguous "5 priorities" style promises.
I agree, and I disagree. I don't dispute the political genius of Harper's five priorities, they're five grand sounding items that are really (four) relatively achievable chunks that, upon closer inspection, aren't really so grand. An accountability act that pales next to their rhetoric, a GST cut paid for with an income tax increase, and so on. No one reads the fine print though, so it works.
So, I agree that the Libs need to people able to communicate a clear vision, and set of priorities, to the Canadian people. But I also think we need to communicate the flaws in Harper's five priority style of governing and say here's what we're going to do but governing isn't as easy as five priorities, it's more than a tax cut and a nuck a day for a babysitter. It's about a vision for the country, and here's ours...
Clear deliverables, yes, but an overarching vision too.
Knb,
He's been leader for 2 months for heaven's sake.
Quite true,yes, and Rome wasn't built in a day. But we may be in an election in another two months, time is short.
Wilson,
Ever considered that Dion's message is very clear, and Canadians are moving away from the Libs...
Nope.
Dan,
...the sitting PM always has an advantage.
That's true for the increase in Harper's numbers, but the tepid comparison between Dion and Martin's numbers circa the week of the last election points to other issues.
BigCityLib,
And the general trend in the numbers seems to argue that Canadians find his government minimally competent but don't like its policies much.
C'est vrai, but they're not warming to us either, and the sky hasn't fallen in over the past year so unless we give them a reason not to, most people will stick with the incumbent.
Anon,
ur full of shit, do ur homework, harper is about 36 percent aprouval rating, no where to grow,...
Thanks for commenting Mom.
The three pillar approach sets the overarching vision/targets/goals.
Specific policy proposals will fill in the details on how we believe we can meet these targets. There are many, many ways of doing it. And the policy platform is currently being put in place.
It will, I maintain, become much more obvious that Liberals can offer Canadians a better deal than Conservatives once policies start rolling out.
But I feel like something has already been achieved here, in that we are now finally starting to agree on the goals.
IMHO, setting out a clear and ambitious vision for the country is already better than Harper's underachieving and not-so-fantastic 5 priorities.
You can go back to ignoring me now.
Jeremy,
The three pillar approach sets the overarching vision/targets/goals.
I agree, but I don't think that message has been getting through. Instead, people are hearing all environment all the time. I think we do have that vision, as you said, it's the three pillars. But it's not just enough to have it, you need to communicate it.
It will, I maintain, become much more obvious that Liberals can offer Canadians a better deal than Conservatives once policies start rolling out.
I hope so. I'd certainly like to think so. I think it's time to start doing a little of that though.
I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom. I just feel we've been so heavy on the environment we're leaving the impression that's all we're about, and we need to change that.
With the exception of a few... you guys just haven't gotten it, and it's going to cost you big in the next election if you don't start jobbing on.
One of you mentioned that Canadians are smart enough to deserve a better answer...
"Canada and it's systems, checks and balances, and institutions are complex. I think we do Canadian's a disservice by reducing everything that Government does, to 5 simple things."
Bravo! Thats exactly right, and while I don't think Harper is necessarily anything to write home about, he does a hell of lot better at, as one of you put it "Sound bytes".
Your entire flow of conversation is in the inability to get your message out. You still fail to see that Canadians, while being smart enough to understand, fundementally don't give a shit as long as we are going in a general direction that looks good.
Harper understands that.
Your "political brain trusts", understand it, but fail to translate it's meaning into something the average Canadian can understand in between taking the kids to hockey, and fighting traffic.
Instead it comes out in the form of "Beer and Popcorn" statements.
It's one thing to assume Canadians stupidly ignore the details of an issue, or the meat and potato's of an agenda designed to achieve something.
It's something else altogether to assume Canadians are stupid.
Your party spends so much time up it's intellectual ass, saving the world on paper, but you never crack a beer, light a smoke, or drop a puck.
Your right that your message is vague and "environmentally" irritating, but you've got to let your hair down too.
Canadians simply won't sacrifice everything, and Dion wears a mantle akin to associate chief zealot of the "Al Gore" church of reform.
Your party has spent little time countering the Tories, and as such your losing on all fronts.
One writer, Wilson, asked a valid question, and in your typically arrogant liberal way, you dismissed it immediately. Did you dismiss it because the NDP are losing numbers to you? That would be a fair assessment currently, but did you bother to stop and wonder if your own party is losing numbers to the CPC because the question might have validity.
The farther left you lean, the farther right your center becomes.
Me, I like Harper, enough that I'll vote for him in the next election, but Dion, now he scares me.
Opposition is all about hammering the government on the flavour of the day and today the flavour is the environment.
I ruefully recall having an argument with a Conservative friend of mine that Stephen Harper was going to get creamed in the last election because all he talked about was Adscam. I confidently stated that if all Stephen Harper talks about every day for two months is Adscam he would turn off more people than turn on and lose big.
Of course Mr. Harper only made passing remarks about Adscam during the campaign and focused on his "5 priorities".
Thankfully, my Conservative friend is a standup guy and he does not gloat, much.
As for these numbers I go into more detail about them on Red Tory's blog but I will sum up by noting that Mr. Martin had similar numbers leading into the last election and we all know how that one turned out.
This is nothing more than the advantage the incumbent always enjoys in between elections. Usually the only way these numbers go down is if the sitting PM makes screw ups of Bushian proportions.
Lets not shoot the messenger.
Dion has been a disaster. He's a one trick poney (which trick has now been trumped by the CPC - handed that issue to Harper on a silver platter) his English is horrible, and he's moving left faster than Lennin in October.
We'll be luck if we end up with only a strong conservative minority.
Wow Relax People, Harper is doing well because he is doing what he said for the most part he would do, we might not like the results but he said GST cut,, he did GST cut, etc etc etc. I am just a normal everyday Canadian and believe me when I say that is a refreshing change. As for the Income Trust fiasco, well,,what can anyone say, even the Liberals agree the decision was right just the time frame was wrong, so its going to be tough to beat them up with that either when they start trotting out the John Mc Quotes. I have watched all parties since the leadership race and the problem is that Mr. Dion is not connecting with the people, he gets excited and his comments ( I can't say that about his French language speeches, isn't bilingual) come out all screwed up, much worse then JC's did and people don't understand what he is saying. I also agree its time to step away from the environment, the one trick pony identity is going to stick. I also agree about the Three pillars problem, they are vague, no firm statements which leads me to believe that the LPC doesn't even know what they mean. If I was Mr. Dion, I might seriously consider doing everything I could right now to avoid a general election. At this stage of the game, I think were going to get beat up bad by the CPC.
One of the reasons the Liberals aren't scoring higher in the polls is because for the past two weeks we've seen the Liberals and Conservatives trade barbs about who *cares* the most about the environment and like it or not, I think the strategy of attacking the Conservatives on the environment file is backfiring for the Liberals. Why? Because I suspect that most Canadians tend to question the Liberal's credibility of attacking the Conservatives when they spent thirteen years doing less than nothing on the environment file. It's kind of like saying "arson is bad" in a very public way while the public is watching you complain about arson whilst holding a pack of matches and a jerry can of gasoline.
Finally, the following Liberal attack ad parody might just sum up what Canadians are feeling right now:
You decide
We need to do a better job of going after Harper in these areas; certainly there is fertile material here. This stacking the benches story today would be an excellent example.
Which would be so easily countered with a video like this -
http://www.bloggingtories.ca/btFrameset.php?URL=http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/langhjelm/~3/90009055/whoops.html&title=Whoops!
Enjoy that? I did.
WC,
I don't think anyone has said here Canadians are stupid. I know I haven't anyway. Anyway, you asked if it had been considered whether it was the messaging, or the message. I think it's the messaging. Obviously as a Conservative you don't like our policies, that's fine. But I think many Canadians do, we're just got getting our message across.
Sean,
Because I suspect that most Canadians tend to question the Liberal's credibility of attacking the Conservatives when they spent thirteen years doing less than nothing on the environment file.
Actually Sean that's not true, the Liberals did quite a lot although I'll be the first to say it wasn't anywhere near enough. And now Harper is reimplementing a fraction of that Liberal work that he canceled, which would seem to indicate he thinks we were somewhat on the right track.
It's kind of like saying "arson is bad" in a very public way while the public is watching you complain about arson whilst holding a pack of matches and a jerry can of gasoline.
Very flowery but completely detached from reality. To go with your analogy though, if the Liberals were holding a pack of matches and a jerry can of gasoline, Harper et al spent years demanding a bigger fire and shouting burn, baby burn!
a couple of points you're all choosing to forget:
- the environment is the #1 issue for only 19% of Canadians.
- Dion's own deputy leader admitted they didn't get it done
Dion's own deputy leader admitted they didn't get it done
Yes, but you're choosing to forget that while we were actually trying to get things done, the opposition was refusing to admit there was a problem and were fundraising with visions of doom to stop us from getting it done. Michael was issuing a call to do more.
gov'ts get voted out of office...opposition parties don't get voted in. such is the nature of the game in canuckistan. unfortunately, it doesn't look like boss harp is gonna do anything crazy enough to get voted out...at least until he gets a majority ;-).
that being said, we don't have a hope in hell if the party doesn't start articulating a vision; responding to attacks; and attacking harper in a succinct way that doesn't turn voters off.
You guys having a problem with your leaders public perception?
Here let me clear up why you keep hitting a wall everytime you try to stake out ground that doesn't involve Kyoto.
The LPC is now a cult of personality.
But if you try to change course now you will only help the NDP and the Greens.
Who is Stephane Dion?
How many of the 1,002 people that answered phone had heard of him before?
Serious question. If the low scores are because people can clearly articulate his vision and have an opinion on his competence, well then it's not good news and it will be an uphill climb. If it's because they haven't been exposed to him then the numbers can turn as soon as a campaign starts (IMO).
Calgary grit: "after a year of not eating babies" his numbers have to be up.
Yes, and who was it that was promising the public that will happen?
And how much credibility do you think your projections of Harper's future conduct will have with the public.
As I said at the time, the ads (guns in streets, harper taking away all our rights) were dangerously short sighted.
And this election, in addition to having to defend the horrible past record in office, the Libs will also have to deal with the over the top decietful campaiging.
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