Mandatory blog posting, Quebec election edition

I've only ever been over to Quebec a handful of times, usually for a sporting event. For example, five or so years back I went to see my BC Lions play the Allouetes at McGill Stadium. A few rows in front of me sat Gilles Duceppe himself, and the jeunes filles positively swooned over him. Much like that mystified me, so does Quebec politics.

So, I'll keep my obligatory post-Quebec election posting to aimless and uninformed speculation on the possible implications for the federal scene. Although, I'm not sure I can do it better than Feschuk has this morning, with this skewering of the pathetic post-poll panel punditry:

For instance, Charest’s humbling is bad for Harper, in that Harper personally invested so much in their relationship, but it’s also good for Harper in that the separatists were routed, even though that’s bad for Harper because Quebecers may ultimately confer a sympathy vote on the Bloc in a federal election to demonstrate that they’re not quite as opposed to sovereignty as it looked last night, which is actually good for Harper because he’ll have a separatist threat to play against and rally the federalist vote, exploiting Dion’s current weakness, which is actually bad for Harper because it will set Dion’s bar of expectations very low, allowing the Liberal leader to generate momentum this spring, which is good for Harper because spring is a warm and happy season that puts people in a good mood, which is bad for Harper because he hates people who are in a good mood, especially if they are gay, which is good for Harper because fitted T-shirts don't suit him anyway. Back to you, Lloyd.

I do find it difficult to accept the emerging conventional media and CPC wisdom that this is a victory for Harper, given the fact Charest was clearly his boy, Harper backed-up a Brinks truck of taxpayer dollars and dumped it into Quebec, and all he could buy his boy was a minority. That has to be a slap in the face for Steve. Still, given the conservatism of the ADQ spinning their surge as a positive signal for Harper is not without merit. Steve has never struck me as one for personal loyalty, indeed, he seems to have been cultivating Dumont, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Charest get the heave-ho and Dumont become Harper's new fair-haired boy.

Were I a Conservative though, or especially one of those moderate voters the Conservatives are desperately courting, I'd be leery about Steve and Mario getting into bed together. A concerning social conservative side of the ADQ emerged during this campaign, with a number of candidates dumped for troubling statements about women and minorities. Two groups Harper is investing heavily in wooing. Would it really be wise for Harper to hitch his wagon to a Quebec version of the early Reform Party?

They do, at least, have firmer common ground on a devolving vision of federalism, and provincial rights. The pressure will be on though, from both Charest and Dumont, for more. More powers, more money. How far will Harper be willing to go?

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