Tuesday, October 09, 2007

One last poll

The day before the Ontario vote and a poll from everyone's favourite pollster, SES, hits my mailbox with a subject line that has to warm Liberal hearts: Liberal Victory Imminent.

The poll, completed over the weekend, makes it clear the Liberals will win Wednesday's vote, with the only question to be answered being the size of the victory.

The numbers:

Ontario Provincial Ballot (N=441, MoE +/- 4.7%, 19 times out of 20)
Liberal 42.6% (among Women 43.4%)
PC 30.5% (amongWomen 25.0%)
NDP 17.5% (among Women 22.0%)
Green 9.4% (among Women 9.5%)
* 11.9% of voters were undecided

The Green Party numbers will be interesting to watch tomorrow night. SES notes Green Party numbers are often inflated in polls by 1/3 because people like to say they'll vote Green but often change their mind at the ballot box. If that trend continues, SES predicts these adjusted numbers based on the second choice of Green supporters:
Ontario Provincial Ballot - Green Adjustment (N=441, MoE +/- 4.7% , 19 times out of 20)
Liberal 43.8%
PC 31.0%
NDP 19.0%
Green 6.1%

* 11.9% of voters were undecided
Interesting that the reallocated Green vote is spread fairly evenly across the three major parties, although the NDP does gain slightly more than the others. Which would imply the NDP would be in more trouble if Green support ever grew and solidified.

And analysis from SES:
In the past week, Tory's announcement of a free vote on the faith-based school issue has not positively moved his numbers. The New Democrats are marginally up. The real story of this election has been the inability of the PCs to effectively compete for the support of women. The Grits enjoy an 18.4 point lead over the Tories among women.

If you look at most federal polling you'll see the Harper Conservatives also have been unable to build their support with women, and they don't seem to be doing much of anything to change that either. Could this be a factor in the next federal vote, or will Harper learn from Tory's experience? Time will tell.

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Lord Kitchener's Own said...

For whatever it's worth, I've never voted Green before, but I think I probably will tomorrow. No one's too happy with McGunity, but everyone figures he's going to win anyway, so I'd say more people than normal may vote for the NDP and the Greens, parties they might not want to form a government, but would like to support (and now's the time, because it's clear that a not terribly popular Premier is going to win, so why not kick in support for someone you actually like, when the result probably won't change the actual election!).

It'll be fascinatinbg to see the numbers tomorrow!

Tootrusting said...

If only this was a federal poll!

Who knows anything can happen in politics.