Tuesday, October 02, 2007

SES puts Ontario Liberals in majority territory

New numbers out this morning from SES echo the weekend's Ipsos numbers, also saying the McGuinty Liberals have widened their lead over the Tory Conservatives to 10 points.

The phone survey, conducted Sept. 28-30th, puts the race as follows:

Liberals: 44 per cent (+3)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Greens: 7 per cent (-1)
*10 per cent undecided
It looks like the Liberal gain came from the NDP rather than the Conservatives, indicating perhaps a stop Tory/anti-Conservative vote shifting to the Liberals. I thought this note from SES was interesting:
Interestingly, in the last seven days support among women who support the NDP has dropped and resulted in a corresponding increase in female support among Liberals.

Interesting indeed. And troubling no doubt for Hampton and the NDP. This may cause them to increase their attacks on McGuinty and the Liberals in the last week of the campaign, not that they've been shy on that front to date.

Speaking of Hampton, he hasn't been losing support personally and neither has McGuinty, who has a three point (but within the margin) lead on Tory for best Premier:
Dalton McGuinty 32% (+3)
John Tory 29% (-2)
Howard Hampton 18% (+3)
Frank de Jong 3% (-1)
None of them 6% (-1)
Unsure 12% (-2)

I'm not sure if we'll have another public poll before e-day to see how Tory's major flip-flop yesterday on faith-based schooling plays. I'm sure the parties will have their own internal polling shortly, it would be interesting to see the results. The next poll for us though may be the only one that counts, on Oct. 10. It'll be like a giant free vote.

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