Friday, February 08, 2008

On interesting statistics

We really shouldn’t worry too much about bad polls or take too much glee in positive ones. We should note them though, particularly when Nik Nanos (formerly SES) is involved. And so I note these new numbers from Nik:

Liberals: 33 percent (-1)
Conservatives: 31 per cent (-4)
NDP: 19 per cent (+2)
BQ: 10 per cent (+1)
Greens: 8 per cent (+2)

Nice to see the Libs pull ahead, although within the margin of error so it’s pretty much a tie. It’s in line with what we’ve seen from recent pollsters too. And BTW, kudos to the NDP, who haven’t been this high since the fall of 2006.

What I find interesting though is to contrast party numbers like these with party leadership numbers like these, released last week by Nanos:

When you consider the Libs are up two/tied with the Cons despite Harper’s massive advantage on leadership, it kind of makes you wonder where the poll numbers would go if Stephane Dion ever gets it in gear. From recent reports, including a successful Tout le Monde appearance, he may be on his way…

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1 comment:

WesternGrit said...

One thing I find with so-called leadership polls - they usually walk hand-in-hand with the party's position in the polls... That's why, another way to look at this is that our leader needs our help in getting up to "bat" on the key leadership issues: "a vision for Canada", and being a "competent leader". I agree with you - if we have those two things in order we will roar. Stephane - like any new leader - is hamstrung by the "training wheels" period. He will step beyond that soon enough - and we're already seeing it. We - as a party - just need to help him along, BUT we need to involve the media more.

Also, the OLO needs some help with good, strong, "tough" politics. We need to bare our teeth. We know we have them. Our current image is "dumpy and cute". Time to crack the whip and get tough. We need to play hardball with Harper and his NeoCon bunch.