Election madness, the dramedy continues

You know, it's almost like a lame plot from a cheesy network comedy. Our two leads have eyes for each other, but they just can't get the timing right. First the one is with someone else, and then the other one is. Will those crazy kids ever get it right?

I don't know which is Ross and which is Rachel, but there is a touch of sitcom hijinks to the election rumours and rumblings circulating lately, at least if you believe the media's anonymous sources, which isn't always a good idea. As they tell it though, practically the entire caucus, including all the other ex-leadership candidates, want an election now, but Stephane Dion is resisting. He doesn't think a summer election is a good idea, he wants to take the summer to sell the Liberal carbon shift plan (Will we see it then before labour day? Please? I mean, come on!). This of course is a shift from the last 10-odd times election fever gripped Ottawa, when Dion wanted to go but much of the caucus and the party mucky-mucks held him back.

That’s quite a shifteroo over just a few months. What, I wonder, has happened over these past few months two cause each side to do a 180 on their positions? Also, what’s the benefit of going now with a summer election, as opposed to waiting until the fall? That wasn’t leaked to the media so I can only speculate.

I’ve long been an election hawk but frankly, I'm unconvinced of the urgency to go now versus the fall. I could still be convinced if I hear some good arguments, but right now I'm on the fence.

On the continual abstainment front, I think the damage there has been “priced-in” if you will. The damage has already been done. It's not like a lot of people are going to say, well, I stayed with them through the 36 other times they abstained but now 37 times, forget it, I’m outta here.

And yes, we've had a few more scandals since the last dose of election fever. There was the RCMP raid, Cadman and more Cadman, and of course the Bernier brouhaha. They don't seem to be resonating much though, the polls are largely unchanged. I do think they're causing an underlying weakening though that could be exploited.

One argument for going now is that the summer would give the Conservatives time to right the ship, come out gunning in the fall with an activist agenda and a cabinet shuffle. I've even heard speculation of a throne speech. Funny thing is, they tried that last year too, and it didn’t work out too well now did it? I suppose one of these years they might get it right though.

One of the reasons given for not going in the spring was that the party wasn’t ready organizationally. According to the media reports the campaign leadership is still against going now; I hope their reasoning is strategic and not organizational, because if we aren’t ready organizationally by now we need new campaign leadership.

Probably the most compelling argument I’ve heard in favour of going now is that Harper could resort to procedural shenanigans to avoid a fall election, so if we want one now's the time. Look deeper at though. Does Harper want an election or not, and when does he want it? I feel like he’s trying to goad us into a summer election, not liking his chances in the fall. That could help explain their bizarre Cadman tapes press conference to announce they’re filing an injunction…in September. The subtext being, if you want to use these tapes in an election Liberals, do it now! I don't know, anytime I feel like Harper wants us to do something I get leery. Of course, maybe he just wants us to think he wants us to go now, he's a crafty devil and a strategic genius, after all.

At this point, my preferred course of action would be to get the frickin' carbon shift policy out, fan the caucus out across the country and spend the summer selling it and building the brand, and then go in the fall.

We made our choice, which I was against, back in the spring. Put off the constant election speculation nonsense on every confidence motion and spend some time developing policy, organizing and building a case for governing. Now we want to abandon the strategy 1/3 of the way through its execution? What’s up with that?

The play has been called, for better or worse; at this point its better to see it through. Let's go in the fall.

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