Monday, October 13, 2008

A few predictions

The polls are incredibly fluid at the moment, and by all indications no one is particularly firm in their voting convictions. I like the trend for the Liberals the last week and a bit, but we may have run out of time. Tomorrow evening, we'll know. Anything from a slim Conservative majority to a Liberal minority is still possible.

I still think a Liberal minority is possible, but it wouldn't be the safe bet at this point. I think we're in good shape in the Maratimes, we'll gain in Quebec, and we'll be fine in BC. I think this election will come down to Ontario, where things seem very much in flux.

I won't make an overall prediction. Since I've been out in BC for this campaign though, I will make a few predictions for this province, namely a few ridings where I think there will be upsets here.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: This riding will go to Briony Penn and the Liberals. With the withdrawal of the NDP candidate, the progressive vote is uniting behind Penn. The NDP MLA for the riding is endorsing Penn and urging NDPers to vote Liberal, and she has recieved the endorsement of key environmental organizations to defeat an MP that's very bad for the environment in Gary Lunn.

Vancouver Island North: It's a toss-up, but I'm going to predict a victory for Conservative John Duncan over the NDP incumbent, Catherine Bell. It will be very, very tight though.

Fleetwood-Port Kells: Liberal candidate Brenda Locke very nearly defeated Conservative MP Nina Grewal in 2005. She's been gaining support and this time, I think she will.

Burnaby-Douglas: Another very tight riding in 2005, with NDP MP Bill Siksay barely hanging-on over Liberal Bill Cunningham. I've been volunteering in this riding this week and things are looking very good for the Liberals, so I'm going to predict the upset and call it for Cunningham.

Kamploops-Thompson-Cariboo: I'm hearing about growing NDP strength in the BC Interior. They already hold BC Southern Interior, so a pick-up in the region isn't outside the realm. It's an upset, but I'm going to predict a victory for the NDP's Michael Crawford in this riding.

Overall, I'm going to predict 9-11 Liberal seats in BC. Nine would equal the 2005 showing, before the depature of David Emerson and Blair Wilson. We've surged here over the last week and a bit, but things are still very fluid. It's been one crazy election.

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3 comments:

bigcitylib said...

The papers seem to think K. Martin is going to get in again.

Walks With Coffee said...

good work.

Cheers, Coffee

A BCer in Toronto said...

Keith will be fine in Esquimalt. We're polling very well on the South Island.