Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Stephen Harper is as popular in Quebec as Stephane Dion was...

... and Harper is trending downward from Dion's basement popularity number. That's my take-away from today's CROP poll for Quebec.

The horserace numbers show the BQ having regained first place from the Liberals, while the NDP and Conservatives remained largely unchanged. Here's the numbers, with the % change from CROP's poll last month in brackets:

BQ: 36 (+5)
Liberal: 32 (-5)
Conservative: 15 (-)
NDP: 12 (-)

Why the flip in BQ and Liberal #s? Here's the translated CROP analysis:

But Wilkins says this fall by 5 points in one month is not necessarily disastrous for the troops of Michael Ignatieff.

"When our survey was made in April, it was a special time," says the analyst. It was really when Mr. Ignatieff was very, very present in Quebec. There was a strong media presence, he was at Everybody's talking about, there was the launch of his book, his speech in Laval was fairly recent. The charm of Ignatieff operation was underway."

"This month, it's as if things had stabilized," she notes. "There is a rise in the PLC since January and the party has become the alternative to the Bloc in Quebec, as far as the federalist option."

Seems reasonable. The poll also notes the Conservatives have slipped to third in their Quebec City stronghold, where interestingly the Liberals lead at 33%. Hmm.

But here's what really caught my eye in this poll:
Finally, Mr. Harper received his worst score at the question of who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. He garnered 15% of the vote, against 39% for Michael Ignatieff and 21% for Jack Layton. The last federal leader to obtain 15% was St├ęphane Dion, a few days before the Conservatives do not trigger the last election.
Ouch. And Harper still has room to fall.
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PS. Check-out my entry for the YLC's positive politics ad challenge, "Is this your Canada?"

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