Sunday, June 14, 2009

Election showdown: the scene is set

On Twitter via David Akin, we learn that Michael Ignatieff has scheduled a press conference for Monday morning at 11:00 am EST in the National Press Theatre, when he will give his reaction to the Conservative's budget infomercial.

Of course, while that reaction will go a long way to determining whether we'll have a summer election or not, it won't be the sole factor as it's not entirely up to the Liberals. As I see it, there are several scenarios.

One, he could say the Conservatives suck but they're making some progress because we made them, and Canadians really don't want a summer election so we'll listen to Canadians and hold our noses. Not my favoured scenario.

Two, he could say the Conservatives have been doing a crap-ass job and we won't support them any longer. The NDP and BQ could reaffirm their non-support, and to the polls we go for what will be one of the nastiest, scorched-earth campaigns in memory as a desperate CPC tries to hang on to power.

Three, he could say the Conservatives have been doing a crap-ass job and we won't support them any longer BUT we know Canadians don't want a summer election. So, if you agree to action on X, Y and Z before Friday, we'll let you live. I'd consider this scenario unlikely, given our strategy on the budget of refusing to ask for specific concessions, but it would give political cover for an election call by painting the Cons as unreasonable if they refuse.

Four, he could say the Conservatives have been doing a crap-ass job and we won't support them any longer. Jack Layton has already said he's willing to work with the CPC on some issues, but the CPC hasn't shown any interest. You can bet now though his phone will be ringing with offers from Harper. If they're enticing enough, the NDP could bite, claim victory and back off their earlier position, letting this government live for another day.

How will it all play out? I honestly have no idea. It all starts with Ignatieff's presser tomorrow, and I think he could go either way. It looks like the Blue Jays have come back down to Earth, and like most average Canadians I don't have a cottage, so I say let's go.

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4 comments:

Gayle said...

I highly doubt someone as egotistical as Harper will do a deal with the NDP. He will perceive it as caving.

Though if he proves me wrong I will be impressed.

Lizt. said...

shouldn't Michael say he has no government,confidence, and why. Then state he is not for a summer election, so it will be up to the other 2 parties, to call.

kirbycairo said...

You forgot about the other possiblity - Ignatieff simply bends over and takes it from behind as the Liberals have been doing for a few years now.

wilson said...

PMSH will not come between the coalition parties by doing a deal with Dippers.
The next campaign will be Cons vs. Coalition

Libs joining Dippers/Bloc on the EI 360 is the perfect set up for that narrative.