Monday, May 31, 2010

Like sands through the hourglass, these are the polls of our lives

A poll just dropped from Angus Reid that I’m sure will get the blogsphere buzzing today. There’s the usual horse-race numbers that are bad for the Liberals and their leader, nothing new there. That’s a drama for another day. No, what’s interesting is they also polled how a potential Liberal/NDP merger would fare.

Led by Michael Ignatieff, it found the electoral result with a merger would be pretty much the status-quo, hampered, says the pollster, by Ignatieff’s personal unpopularity:

However, led by Bob Rae it’s a different result, with a dead-heat and a shot at government, depending on the regional break-downs:

Apparently, says the pollster, Bob’s popularity in Ontario would be a difference-maker:

The prospect of a centre-left merger—similar to the one that allowed the Conservative Party to challenge and ultimately break the Liberal hegemony—is not greeted with the same enthusiasm by voters when the leader is revealed.

Ignatieff would not provide the new party with a shot at victory. Rae's popularity in Ontario, and to a lesser extent in British Columbia, would turn the next election into a tight contest.

I was slightly amused as I read this, and not just because of their comments about Rae’s popularity in Ontario, which certainly turns the popular meme on its head. No, I was amused because I was reminded of another Angus Reid poll of hypothetical leaders, this one during the last aborted Liberal leadership race.

From December of 2008, with Ignatieff as leader here were Angus Reid’s numbers (changes from the then current numbers in brackets):

Conservatives: 38% (-4)

Liberals: 33% (+11)

NDP: 13% (-5)

Bloc: 10% (-)

Green: 6% (-1)

And Angus Reid from December 2008 with Rae as leader:

Conservatives: 41% (-1)

Liberals: 26% (+4)

NDP: 15% (-3)

Bloc: 10% (-1)

Green: 6% (-1)

The point being, a hypothetical poll and a $1 will buy you a can of Fresca. And the X factor, of course, is the multi-million dollar demonization campaign the Conservatives unleashed on Ignatieff, and you can be sure one is sitting in a drawer on Bob.

Finally, back to the merger numbers, according to Angus Reid the LiberalDippers would fare best under Jack Layton (that sound you hear is a collective shriek of delight from the Blogging Dippers:

But Layton would immensely help the new party with good numbers in Ontario and a remarkable showing in Quebec, pushing the Bloc to second place for the first time in years.

Of course, I should caution those numbers don't factor in the thousands of Liberals who would be unable to vote, due to their heads having exploded.

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Ben (The Tiger in Exile) said...

If you're picking a third leader since Martin, go with someone new.

I mean, how long can the Tories coast on ads they put in the can sometime in the summer of '06?


On the other hand, having Layton in charge of the Canadian Lib-Dems would result in a re-emergence of those ads that the Tories did in BC, where they gave everyone Jack-mustaches... That'd be cool.

Quixotique said...

"Of course, I should caution those numbers doesn’t include factor in the thousands of Liberals who would be unable to vote, due to their heads having exploded."

Ha! Jeff. I do love your way with words. That is just too funny.

What is not funny, however, is the sorry state of organized politics in Canada. All about the games and machinations. Governing a country? not so much.

wilson said...

Facinating that the Greens did not move to the coalition, but BLOC voters did, and in a big way, at least on this survey.

If LibDippers ran only one candidate in Quebec, I bet Cons supporters would help yah get rid of a few separatist MPs!!
I think that is a move all federalist voters could get behind

But I said that last year to Libloggers too, and got the ususal reception.....(sigh)

CanadianSense said...

Angus was the most accurate in 2008.
I don't believe a formal coalition under a new leader will reverse the trend for parties pushing social justice or socialism.

The homeowner, taxpayer is not interested in more money leaving his/her wallet for "x" cause.

The trend has been sped up with the global economic crisis and socialism nanny state parties are being reduced.

I wished they had asked about the young dauphin in waiting.

Nothing like pining for the myth of greatness from the past.

Eugene Forsey Liberal said...

I think I speak for all Liberal bloggers when I say I am hurt there were not comprehensive scenarios polling the results of Jedras, Arnold, Curran -led coalitions.

leftdog said...

Those Libs whose heads would explode should very likely be Conservatives anyway ... The Right wing of the Liberal party is just as scary to true progressives as $tephen Harper is.

wilson said...

And self proclaimed 'true progressives' have sat in opposition,
supporting both right winged Conservative and right winged Liberal governments,
for their entire existance.

leftdog said...

Wilson .. at least we catch the crooked Right wing Conservatives (like Mulroney) AND crooked Right wing Liberals (remember Adscam) ... I know you are pretty far to the Right ... but do you call yourself a Tory or a Grit?

RuralSandi said...

CanadianSense - I'm a homeowner, pay my taxes, play by the rules and all that good stuff.

You don't speak for everyone so I think you should quit acting like the spokesman/woman for all Canadians. You are not.

You see, Canadians can be concerned about more than one issue at a time. Life is more than money. Quality is important and Harper's trying to take away decades of hard work, by both parties, to build a good country and a democracy. Dictatorship isn't want Canadians really want

RuralSandi said...

Leftdog - oh the sanctimony. Meanwhile, NDP's have had their share of scandal on provincial levels - Spudscam, Bingoscam, O'Learygate...and we could go on.

lance said...

Who's speaking for us again?

RuralSandi said:
"You don't speak for everyone so I think you should quit acting like the spokesman/woman for all Canadians. You are not."

...and then proceeds to tell us all what Canadians really want.

Dictatorship! When do we want it? Now!

CanadianSense said...

RS, Lance

Hit a nerve? Do you need a link on HST? Greenshift Tax Campaign 2008?

Retreat of European socialist parties for fiscal conservative, right of centre parties?

A political map of seats held demostrates the wisdom of big government, higher tax in Canada.

Ontario 2008 - Federal Liberals won 38 seats, 33.8% in 2000 JC won 100 seats with 51.5%.

The NDP+Green have picked up the votes. Keep touting social justice, just society, carbon tax, redistribution of wealth.

In Ontario double digit increase in hydro bills, HST should be the next worth another 20 seats.