Pretend you were finance minister…

After a day yesterday distracted by blogging-related things, today I really need to get down to work. So for now I'll leave you with this quote, which Stephane Dion reportedly made in a speech to the Liberal caucus this morning, and then a question:

Pointing to the multibillion-dollar surplus, Dion declared that "never has a government done so little with so much,"…

I think this is an interesting theme worth picking-up on. If you were finance minister, what would you have done with that multi-billion dollar surplus?

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(Pretty much) spin-free budget reaction

As mentioned, I'm down in Salt Lake City this week so I'm missing all the excitement of budget day. And while I've been subjected to lots of spin from all sides today around Microsoft and Novell's Linux partnership, I've so far escaped the budget tsunami.

(Let me say that by spin free I haven't been spun. But I'm sure I make be making some circular movements of my own.) Anyway, not having the time to delve into the budget enough at this point to be able to offer an overall opinion, I instead offer some comments having just read Flaherty's speech on the Web, and no media coverage or party spin.

*First, I couldn't resist a few snarky comments about this section:

We build from a foundation of strength.
Our unemployment rate is the lowest in 30 years.
Our fiscal fundamentals are the strongest in the G7.
We are paying down over $22 billion against the national debt. That’s $700 for every man, woman and child in Canada.
Our taxes are lower.
Our budget is balanced.
Mr. Speaker, in looking to the future, we take inspiration from our country’s magnificent past.

Even if he didn't thank the Liberal Party by name, 'magnificent' is pretty high praise indeed. But definitely a great way to describe a Liberal government that wrestled the deficit, balanced the budget, returned surplus after surplus, and gave Jim that “foundation of strength” to build from. So, you're welcome Jim.

*Reading his speech much of the language sounds, like last year, positively Liberal. I don't say that in a they're stealing our ideas way. Rather, their messaging, the issues they're talking about, and how they're talking about them, aren't necessarily reflective of traditional Conservative priorities, bur rather issues more closely associated with Liberals, or at least Red Tories. Again it's Harper appealing to the middle, election clearly in mind. I don't for a minute think his conversion is genuine. Even if his was, his supporters haven't budged.

*The increase in funding for the post secondary education portion of the CST sounds promising, although without time to get into all the numbers it's tough to say for sure. Still, if they are making real increases here that's welcome.

*They're going to spend $250 million more to create child care spaces. Maybe some spaces will actually get created now, fingers crossed?

*It wasn't that long ago that Conservatives were decrying infrastructure spending, and now they're at least claiming to be ramping it up. Rather that dwell on their being late to the party, I'd just like to say I'm glad they're finally here.

*Lines written by Jack Layton:
Today, we crack down on corporations that have avoided paying their fair share.
Third, we cherish the universality of our health care system, and aspire to strengthen it.

*Interesting to read about a National Water Strategy. Doesn't sound like a sexy issue, but it's more important than you think.

*Taxes are too high Jim? If so, why am I paying more income tax now than I did under the Liberal governmental?

*I remember when Conservatives favoured simplifying the tax system. Now we've got all kinds of tax credits designed to appeal to specific voting demographics, and even just plain tax breaks for the heck of it to targeted groups. As a Liberal I should be all for it, but I find myself balking. Maybe because I'm an unwed single male getting nada here? Nah.

*At first blush this is very much an election budget, designed to get Harper closer to his majority. If I were a died in the wool Conservative I'd be asking is this guy a Conservative or what? Then Doug Finley would box my ears and tell me to shudup and behave. But anyway, the devil is in the details. Judging a budget by the speech is like judging a box of cereal by the box. What the speech does tell you is the message the government is looking to send, and that's clear enough. Will the carpet match the drapes? I'll find out when I point my browser over to media land, but I wouldn't be surprised to find it doesn't. But I'll save that for after dinner.

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SES on the budget, Quebec, Charest and Harper

As we await the details of the federal budget this afternoon (it's all the buzz down here in Salt Lake City, I assure you) I found this latest data from everyone's favourite pollsters interesting. SES says the budget isn't likely to help Jean Charest or Steve Harper all that much in Quebec, at least in the short term.

With much of the budget details well-leaked by the Conservatives ahead of time (barring no doubt a few surprises later today) SES polled Quebecers on how the leaked and expected budget iniatives would influence their opinions of Harper and Charest. Here's the numbers:

Question - As you know, Prime Minister Stephen Harper supports the concept of “open federalism”. The Harper government has announced $350 million to support Quebec’s environmental plan. Likewise, there is expected to be additional new equalization transfers from the government of Canada to the province of Quebec in the federal budget.

As a result are you likely to view Stephen Harper more favourably, about the same or less favourably?

All Quebecers (N=500)
More favourably - 27.0%
About the same - 33.5%
Less favourably - 36.6%
Unsure - 2.9%

As a result are you likely to view Jean Charest more favourably, about the same or less favourably?

All Quebecers (N=500)
More favourably - 20.9%
About the same - 38.0%
Less favourably - 37.8%
Unsure - 3.2%

Associate with Provincial Liberals (N=129)
More favourably - 48.0%
About the same - 29.8%
Less favourably - 18.9%
Unsure - 3.3%

And the analysis from SES president Nik Nanos:

The polling shows that Harper's open federalism, new money for Quebec's environmental plan and expected new equalization transfers for the province do not have a major positive impact on his image among Quebec voters. Indeed, Quebecers are more likely to look less favourably on the Prime Minister. The research does show that for Charest the budget will be good at firming up individuals who most closely personally associate with the Liberal Party of Quebec.

My sense is that for the federal Conservatives the budget strategy has a number of layers. First, the timing and likely budget configuration increases the likelihood for it to pass and thus further sustains the Harper government. Second, the federal Conservatives can wait and see what bump..if any...materializes from the budget.

For Charest, beyond Liberals, the traction of the budget and open federalism at this time is weak. This could be a result of the view that a number of Quebecers see the budget as a potential federal intervention in provincial politics.

Sounds like a fair analysis of the numbers to me. With the big cavet that something big and unexpected in the budget today could toss all this out the window, I'm not overly surprised Quebecers aren't buying into what Harper has been selling to them. Which has to be a sock in the gut, given the effort he has expended trying to build his, and Charest's, support in the province that could well make or break his majority dreams. Interesting the poll says the sales pitch is hurting him there though, I wonder what's behind that.

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