Expectations: They're not just for Liberals

Well, at long last it's by-election day and, while I've been reading much in the media and the blogsphere about the expectations on the Liberals today, I've not heard much about the expectations on the other parties. Which must be nice for them, I suppose, it sets the bar pretty low. It shouldn't be though.

Now that's not to say there aren't heavy expectations on the Liberals. These were, after all, four Liberal seats and number of big names are running for the party. Which is why Stephen Harper waited as long as he could to call them. Myself, I think given the tight margin of victory in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in the last election, for the Liberals taking three out of four (Quadra, Toronto-Centre and Willowdale) would be an expectations met, and four out of four a bonus.

There's been much written on the Liberal expectations though, so I don't want to belabour those points. Instead, I wanted to consider the expectations for the other parties. Because while these aren't held seats, even if they don't take any of these seats I still think the other parties have expectations they need to meet.

The Conservatives probably have their best shot in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, particularly if Liberal Joan Beatty and the NDP candidate split the vote. It will be interesting to see if the Conservative handing of the wheat board issue is a factor at all. However, I'll be more interested to see how the CPC fares in the three urban ridings.

Now the Conservatives will say they have 0 expectations in these ridings, these are urban ridings not inclined to vote Conservative. True enough. But if Stephen Harper is ever going to have a chance at a majority government he's going to have to start winning some seats in urban ridings. And not by appointing unelecting Senators or enticing people accross the floor with cabinet posts. He's had two years to woo urban voters, and Jason Kenney has spent a lot of time trying to bring multicultural voters onside. It's time to see if it's been working or not and the results in Willowdale, with a 56 per cent immigrant population, should be watched to see if Kenney has been making progress. The old byelection maxim is that they tend to be used to send a message to the government, but nevertheless I think the Conservatives are going to have to, at a bare minimum, show some forward momentum and build their vote in some of these ridings to meet expectations. If they can't start gaining ground in urban Canada they'll never get a majority, and some serious introspection by the CPC braintrust will be needed.

For the NDP, there are expectations to be met as well. Again, their best shot is probably Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, they have a lot of ground to make up from 2006 but it's possible and a win there could set them up as the default CPC alternative on the Praries in the general election, a region where there are CPC seats up for grabs. In the other three ridings though, particulrly Quadra and Toronto-Centre, they need to show some momentum as well. I'm not saying they need to win. But they should increase their vote. They've been running hard against the Liberals, both in these ridings and nationally, with the whole we'll stand-up to Harper and the Liberals won't theme. I'll be watching these results for indications of a verdict on this strategy, which should have a better chance of meeting a receptive audience in urban ridings like these. Even with the Bob Rae X factor, I think the NDP needs to show at least moderate vote gains in some of these ridings to meet expectations.

Particularly interesting, I think, at least from my centre of the universe perspective, will be the race for second and third in Toronto-Centre. The NDP was solidly in second in 2006, they'll need to replicate that finish to meet expectations. The Conservatives were third and they'll need to at least close the gap somewhat to meet expectations. The X factor here though will be the Green Party. Chris Tindal has run a very strong campaign and generated a lot of buzz. With all the contreversy around the Cons dumping Mark Warner and a weak campaign from Don Meredith, it's not inconvievable to see the Greens move past the Cons for third, which would be deeply embarassing for the Conservatives. If Tindal could pull of a miracle and overtake the Farouk El-Khaki for second, pulling votes from the Cons while Rae pulls from the NDP, the bodyblow to the NDP would be even deeper. That's much more of a longshot though, but it should be interesting to watch.

Anyway, the point is there are expectations to be met by all the parties Monday. Except for the Bloc Quebecois, they can take the day off. But while the pundits will be focused on the seat counts, which of course aren't unimportant, a deeper analysis of the numbers today will also be illuminating and telling as to where all the parties stand going forward.

If you live in one of the four ridings, make sure you get out and vote.

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Can we try not to screw up Don Valley West too please?

Writing recently on the nomination brouhaha still simmering in the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, I put the events in the larger context of the poor handling of nominations by the Liberal Party of Canada across Canada. Unfortunately, warning signs are emerging another cock-up may be brewing in Don Valley West, if the party leadership doesn’t take quick and decisive action.

First, however, back to Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River for a moment. I’d written earlier that the LPC should have waived-off Orchard long ago if the riding was reserved for an appointment. It appears, however, that the LPC may have done just that. Maybe:

David Orchard knew full well that the federal Liberals wanted an aboriginal woman to run in a northern Saskatchewan byelection and shouldn't be surprised that one was handpicked to do so, MP Ralph Goodale suggested Wednesday.

The twice failed Tory leadership hopeful - and anyone else who expressed interest in running as a Liberal in the Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River riding for that matter - signed a paper warning that leader Stephane Dion may appoint a qualified woman candidate, such as Joan Beatty, Goodale said.

"Everyone was informed about the leaders prerogative to appoint a candidate and the leader might want to exercise that prerogative if the appropriate strong, female, northern-riding resident came forward," Goodale said in a telephone interview with The Canadian Press.

Goodale’s comments are predictably dismissed as “spin” by Orchard campaign manager Marjaleena Repo:

She said Orchard, who delivered key delegates to Dion during the Liberal leadership race, was told that the party was looking for an aboriginal woman to run. But when they couldn't find one, she said Dion encouraged Orchard to put his name forward.

I think there’s lots of spin going on here. Certainly Goodale’s revelations, if accurate, cast Orchard’s actions in another light. However, if Dion did give Orchard an eventual go-ahead…well, it’s all a mess and I think there’s plenty of blame to go around. I think Orchard is far from innocent, I think Goodale is far from innocent, and I think the campaign team is coming off like the Clampets.

Nevertheless, my original thesis stands: the LPC did a piss poor job of managing this and a number of other nominations, making avoidable foul-ups that give the party a black eye at times we should be gaining ground.

A repeat in Don Valley West?

Which brings us to the highly coveted (read: winnable) Toronto-area riding of Don Valley West, now held by the retiring John Godfrey. This same article points to potential nomination trouble ahead in this riding:

Meanwhile, some Liberals fear a similar controversy is brewing in the Toronto riding of Don Valley West, which will become vacant in July when Liberal MP John Godfrey retires.

Potential candidates were warned late last year that Dion intended to appoint a star candidate in the safe Liberal seat. But insiders say Dion's efforts to recruit David Pecault, chairman of the Toronto City Summit Alliance, failed and now a number of would-be candidates, tired of waiting, are starting to get organized.

Former MP Sarmite Bulte has filed nomination papers, constitutional expert Deborah Coyne, who ran for the Liberals against Jack Layton in the last election, is intending to file her papers shortly and up to a dozen more are said to be interested.

Insiders predict that Dion will eventually appoint a candidate in Don Valley West but will face a huge backlash if he waits until candidates have already sold thousands of memberships.

And the Hill Times adds another name to the mix:

Jonathan Mousley, former legislative assistant and senior policy adviser to former Liberal Cabinet minister David Collenette in the Jean Chrétien Cabinet, will run for the nomination in retiring Liberal MP John Godfrey's (Don Valley West, Ont.) riding. Mr. Godfrey won the riding in the last election with 53.3 per cent of the vote.

Remember Mark Warner, the nominated Conservative candidate for Toronto-Centre dumped by the CPC leadership? He may be in the mix too (story is from November):

Godfrey acknowledged yesterday that Warner's name has been bandied as his possible successor in Don Valley West, where he's been the MP since 1993. Before then, the riding was a Progressive Conservative one, and Godfrey thinks Warner could have appeal there.

Interesting to see Deborah Coyne, cousin of Andrew, back in the mix. She took on Jack Layton for the Liberals in the last election and had the Toronto-Danforth nomination again before deciding not to run there last month. While I like her as a candidate, I’m not keen on riding swircheroos and the optics of this, even if Don Valley West is her home riding, are iffy. So I’m of mixed feelings there. As for the potential return of Sam Bulte, another riding switchero from Parkdale-High Park where she lost her seat to the NDP in the last election, and Gerard Kennedy will run in the next one, I’m sure the digital copyright folks are already gearing-up.

Anyway, the point is with such an attractive riding in play the names are coming out of the woodwork and there is a lot of interest, high profile and otherwise. This is also exactly the sort of riding Dion has said he’d like to set aside for the appointment of qualified female candidates to meet his 1/3 female candidates goal.

With the rumours of a possible appointment and many names coming forward, Dion and the LPC need to learn from the mistakes of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Outremont, Scarborough-Southwest and the other ridings where they’ve bungled the nomination process.

The party need to make clear immediately its plans for this riding. Will it be a completely open nomination process? If so, say so and let people organize. Will it be a semi-open nomination process with only female candidates (a la Vancouver-Quadra)? Or will this riding be reserved for appointment, in which case people should stop campaigning?

The uncertainly cannot be allowed to fester. To allow people to start organizing now, and then make an appointment later, is unacceptable. The decision needs to be made immediately, and it needs to be made public. This will prevent any confusion, or any attempts to sow confusion.

The LPC has the chance to defuse this bomb before it goes off. Let’s hope this time they decide to do so.

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