I’d be a bad blogger indeed if I didn’t comment on the new polling numbers from SES that, like a number of polls of late, show the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical dead-heat. The rogue poll argument no longer holds water, the trends show things are tight.
I’m very happy to see the Conservatives finally coming back down to Earth thanks to a combination of factors, namely it would seem Afghanistan, the environment, and their own arrogance and incompetence. Governments, as the saying goes, defeat themselves, and while it’s extremely premature to go there it has certainly been a bad stretch for Harper et al.
There is definitely a lot in the recent polls for Liberals to be happy about. I’d like to try to take a slightly different tack than others have though and ask another question: With the Conservatives shooting themselves in the feet, how do the Liberals grow their support?
Because if you look at the trend lines from SES and other pollsters you’ll see that Liberal support has remained relatively steady at around 30 per cent since the last election. We haven’t gained support to catch the Conservatives; they’ve lost support to come down to our level.
Now, holding onto our support through a rather tumultuous period that included an extended leadership race, a Conservative honeymoon and a rocky start for Dion is not that shabby, as I’ve argued in the past.
Not to be negative though, but with the Conservatives now struggling we need to convert some of that Conservative weakness into Liberal strength. We need to start growing our support.
Just like everyone used to know there would be a spring election, now everybody knows there won’t be one. That means the Liberals will at least have the summer, and we need to use it. No summer breaks, every member of the Liberal “dream team” needs to hit the road and visit every bbq, corn roast and clam bake from Prince Rupert to Bonavista.
Have Dion, Ignatieff, Rae, Kennedy, Hall-Findlay, Trudeau, Dhalla and the rest fan out across the country. Get them in front of small groups and into small towns. Forget the national media, get in front of community newspaper reporters and broadcasters.
And have everyone singing from the same playbook. We need to start putting a little meat on the policy bones. Marketing experts say the average person will take away just three things away from a message. We already have our three things in the three pillars: the economy, social justice and the environment. Unfortunately if these pillars were a stool you’d slide off.; the environmental leg has gotten a bit oversized. A little balance is needed.
Let’s flesh out the social justice and economic management messages. We’ve got ready-made, attractive policies for both, from using the next planned GST decrease to fight child poverty to our plan for income trust fairness that will resonate strongly with seniors. Let’s take those messages along with our environmental message to the people.
By seeming to flop from one problem to the next the Conservatives are doing their bit. Now, it’s up to the Liberals to do ours.