Monday, June 04, 2007

New poll: For entertainment purposes only

The folks at Ipsos Reid have another poll out today on federal voting intentions. Basically, the Cons and Libs remain in a statistical tie.

Not a surprising insight there. Actually the Cons dropped 3 points from their last survey while the Libs remained steady, but with a margin of error of 3 who can say. Since there’s little change though, in lieu of much fresh analysis here’s a link to what I said last time.

And here’s a pretty chart:

The margins of error for the regional numbers are so wild (from 5 in Ontario to 11.7 in Atlantic Canada) that there’s little meaningful analysis to be drawn from any of the changes. Being a biased Liberal though I’ll take pleasure in the Ontario and Atlantic numbers, choose to take optimism in the Quebec numbers, and write off the B.C. swing to the MOE.

It’s such a nice chart though, so for entertainment purposes only:

Also entertaining and slightly more interesting, if not any more meaningful, are the age and gender breakdowns. Unfortunately no pretty charts here, so we can’t look at any trends over time, which would be interesting. Are the Cons turning off even more women? Are Canada’s men turning away from the not so macho Dion? Enquiring minds want to know…

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (27%) by a 12-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (15%), while the Bloc (men, 9%; women, 10%) and Green Party (men, 8%; women, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (36%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (37%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (28%). The Liberals also enjoy greater support among those 55 years and older (36%) than among Canadians 18 to 34 years of age (28%). The NDP draws similar levels of support from those 18 to 34 years of age (15%), 35 to 54 years of age (17%) and those 55 years and older (15%). Support for both the Bloc Quebecois and Green Party skews younger, with 13 percent of those18 to 34 years of age supporting the Bloc and 15 percent supporting the Green Party compared to six percent among those 55 years and older supporting the Bloc and seven percent supporting the Green Party.
When I posted on another Ipsos poll on May 14 I also mentioned these gender and age breakdowns. Where both stats are in the releases I’ve included the change, if any below, again for entertainment purposes only.

Support from Men

Cons: 39 (+5)
Liberals: Liberals (-4)
NDP: 15 (-1)
BQ: 9 (+2)
Green: 8 (-1)

Support from Women

Liberals: 34 (-)
Cons: 29: (-)
NDP: 18 (+1)
BQ: 10 (+1)
Greens: 9 (-1)

Those 55 and over

Cons: 35 (-5)
Liberals: 36 (+5)

Those 18-34

Liberals: 28 (+1)
Cons: 28 (+4)
NDP: 15 (-7)
BQ: 13 (+2)
Greens: 15 (+1)

So, not sure to take from that comparison. Would seem though that guys thought it was a good few weeks for the Cons, while women weren’t impressed with anyone. The Cons took a hit with seniors and the Libs capitalized (income trusts perhaps, I think we need to more heavily court seniors) while something happened between the NDP and the kids while I wasn’t looking.

Till next time…

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Steve V said...

Ipsos regional numbers are questionable, but you have to love the Conservatives Alberta numbers. Clearly, the theory that Harper is alienating the base finds strong support in the paltry 74% in Alberta. The 63 point gap with the Liberals better give Harper pause, people are pissed.

C4SR said...

Since that 11% is concentrated in Edmonton and pockets of Calgary Centre, 74% means that the Tories are at 90%+ in rural Alberta.

The other 10% was their original Reform base. :-)

Jeff said...

I agree I don't think Harper is in much trouble in Alberta Steve. Even if he dropped 30 per cent (which he has in previous Ipsos polls, the regional swings are wild) he has such high pluralities he'd still carry the day. That isn't to say he hasn't lost support in Alberta. I think he has, just not enough. Or with his base, they're pissed but have nowhere to go till Reform II.