Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Fortune favours the daring

Two polls came out today, one from Angus Reid and the other from Harris-Decima . One shows it C34/L28, the other C31/L30. I prefer the latter one, for obvious reasons.

I'll leave the analysis to Steve, Scott and others, and there is something interesting stuff in some of the regionals (NDP and Greens tied in Ontario?). I will say that I think it's too early to look for what reaction there will be, if any, to the Cadman affair. Both these polls were conducted or began very early in that story. These things take some time to percolate, we should check back in a few weeks and I'll of course wait for The Nanos to weigh-in from on high.

I wanted though to note though this line from Angus Reid:

While Liberal Leader St├ęphane Dion was critical of the budget, he immediately announced his party would not defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government.

Only 24 per cent of those polled supported his actions, with 51 per cent saying they disapproved of his performance.

And this from Decima:

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have taken a beating in public opinion over the past week, but the opposition Liberals have done nothing to capitalize.

He's says the two major parties are in a neck-and-neck battle and neither appears to be gaining an edge.

If we'd said last Tuesday we're voting NO to this budget, I'd wager we'd be seeing very different poll numbers today. It would have been a gamble, yes. But fortune favours the daring, and it appears that for week one of the campaign at least the electoral gods would have been smiling upon us.

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Steve V said...

Jeff, just to clarify, the Harris poll was completed last night.

I agree, this will take time to percolate, Nanos made that point today (strange asking him to comment on a rival's findings). Nanos seemed to think this will all hinge on the RCMP, whether they investigate or not.

I'm not sure we can get a true read on the damage done to the Cons, because it works in concert with the Libs hiding routine. I think it fair to say, would the Cons have fallen further, if the Libs gave people a reason to move to them? Ultimately, the damage may be mitigated by the Liberals damaging themselves, if that makes sense.

On the Greens, I believe this is the third time now that a poll has showed them tied or in third in Ontario. Interesting indeed.

wilson said...

Last nights PC landslide majority in Alberta, when the polls were pointing to a smaller majority, even a minority, just proves that polls are not as reliable as they used to be. Nanos included.

The media has really toned it down since the libel suit.
What once was a scandal is now an affair, the word 'bribe' is hard to find.

But Libs have QP to make their accuations.
While Dippers ask questions about detainees, interference in the US election....

Ammendments to the CWB was introduced into the House yesterday,
tomorrow legislation on Native women's rights...meanwhile, Libs cling to a smear job.

Anonymous said...

The final vote for the budget was held today. I think only nine Grits were in the final vote and that includes the Party Leader, House Leader, Whip, the deputies to these positions, Finance Critic, and two others.

Jeff said...

Didn't see the dates for that one Steve, just for the Angus Reid one, but that would explain why the CPC drop was more pronouned in the Harris poll.

Speaking if CWB Wilson, looks like the Cons backed-down from making it a confidence vote. Are they perhaps scared to face the voters right now with this SCANDAL hanging over them?