Friday, March 13, 2009

Liberals, Tories in dead heat: poll

I'm just out the door for an evening of root beer and merry making so I've no time to crunch and analyze these numbers. Instead, I'll just push these hot of the press CP-Harris Decima polling numbers that just crossed my desk out to you to chew over and analyze, and perhaps I'll chime in later.

Here's the CP story:

Liberals, Tories in dead heat: poll
Source: The Canadian Press

Mar 13, 2009 16:46

OTTAWA _ A new poll suggests the federal Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat _ but Tory support is dropping in some p
arts of the country and among women.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Liberals at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 32.

The NDP was at 14 per cent, the Greens at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

It suggests the Tories trail the Liberals by five percentage points among women overall and by 12 points among urban women.

The Conservatives have also seen their support plum
met in Quebec, leaving them in a distant third place.

The Liberals were ahead in Ontario, where NDP sup
port has sagged into a low-teens tie with the Greens. The telephone poll of 2,000 people was conducted Feb. 26 to March 8, and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
Here's a link to the PDF with the juicy goodies from Decima.

And here's a chart with lots of red:

My quick thoughts? If we're getting women back that's good, we lost them to the Conservatives in the last election and it really hurt us. I hope the signs of Liberal recovery in BC hold. I like that we're gaining from the Conservatives in Quebec. And what up with the NDP only at 13, tied with the Greens, in Ontario? Overall results that mirror previous recent polls, and not bad from a Liberal perspective at all.

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Fillibluster said...

I guess the "Obama effect" on Harper's standing in the polls was short lived, as one would expect it to be, and now it's back to the future for Harper's sinking fortunes with voters faced with the reality of growing unemployment and Harper's denial thereof.

Mike said...

Good to see!

I'm glad we are re-gaining the women's vote, but I bet most women have no idea about the damaging pay equity provisions that were just passed.

That may hurt us badly with that demographic later especially since women are bound to encounter problems in the work place because of it as their rights become a bargaining chip in the collective bargaining process.

I think we should use an opposition day to re-instate the old pay equity regime (or even improve the old regime since there were committee reports on the issue) - otherwise it could come back to hurt us later - the NDP will make it a major issue in the next campaign asking why we didn't support their committee amendments to take it out of the budget.

Promising to repeal them if we form government isn't good enough -we control the House of Commons we should show women voters we don't take them for granted. If Harper wants to make such provisions a confidence matter even though it doesn't involve money then he would like the worse for it.

There are plenty of opposition days left to do this - I hope we follow through.

Éric said...

Thanks, you brought this poll to my attention. I've updated my electoral projection site accordingly.


Larry Gambone said...

Is there not generally a gender gap between the right and progressive parties?

Jeff said...

CAITI, earlier pollsters indicated Harper got absolutely no Obama-bump. It's a bit surprising, really. Maybe he could invite Colbert up for the Colbert-bump.

Mike, a good point, and a thought that occurred to be as well. Could be that has yet to percolate. Could be the feeling is it's bad but we needed the budget passed. I don't know. An opposition motion is an interesting idea, although I think to be binding it would need to be legislation, since this involves changing a law rather than calling on the government to take a certain action.

Larry, traditionally Liberals have had the support of more women then men, and Conservatives more men than women. In the last election, the Conservatives had both more men and more women than the Liberals, very effectively targeting urban women with initiatives around EI parental benefits for the self-employed and truth in labeling, among others. it appears that support may be shifting back to the Liberals.