Life continues imitating the West Wing

I haven’t been following the presidential primaries in the U.S. that closely, other than what I get on The Daily Show. I did flip CNN on last night while doing other things, and listened to most of a tedious concession speech from Mike Huckabee (sorry Stephen Colbert) and a bland acceptance speech from John McCain.

It being a school night I went to sleep before there were any final results from Ohio or Texas, but this morning it seems Hillary Clinton was able to pull out wins in each. It’s too bad, I’ve been pulling for Obama. And he’s still very much in it, given the delegate numbers it’s still anyone’s game.

It’s already been observed how in many ways this primary season is imitating the script for the last two season of The West Wing. And that trend shows no sign of ending any time soon. With McCain/Vinnick nominated, the Republicans get to sit back with the Democrats with Obama/Clinton/Santos/Russell slug it out towards a brokered convention.

In the West Wing, the convention deadlocks and Santos is heavily pressured to bow out for the good of the party as the young guy that has made a name for himself, the heir apparent for next time. He appears to initially agree, then reneges on the convention stage with a speech for delegates to vote their conciencse. Behind the scenes, President Bartlet brokers the support of the NY teacher’s union for Santos and the nomination is his.

While such a scenario made for good TV, in real life it’s far from ideal for the Democratic Party. They need to get a presumptive nominee soon, and it shouldn’t be allowed to come down to a brokered convention.

At this point, as I understand it there’s no math that allows either Clinton or Obama to get over the hump before the convention. That brings the un-democratic super delegates into play, as well as divisive arguments over what to do about the un-seated Florida and Michigan delegations. That, and a prolonged primary season, will weaken and divide the Democratic Party, opening the door for what seemed impossible just a year ago: another Republican presidency.

After last night, I think the pressure is going to be incredibly strong for one of the two candidates to drop out of the race and endorse the other, for the good of the party and the good of the country. It really would be the best case scenario for what should be the ultimate goal: reclaiming the White House.

The question, of course, is who. It seems like an impossible choice to make for either candidate, both are so close to the prize they can taste it. Will one of them be able to put country ahead of ambition?

For Clinton, it’s probably a harder decision to make, because for her there probably is no next time. Could she run again in four years, or eight years if Obama wins the presidency? Tough to say, four years maybe but probably not eight. Stepping aside now may mean stepping aside from the dream.

For Obama, even if it ends here it’s not over. He has vaulted onto the national stage like a bullet, energized the party and the country. He’s young, and he’d be the presumptive nominee in four years, or eight if Clinton wins the presidency. And an Obama with a few more years of seasoning would be an even more formidable opponent, and could find it easier to blunt the national security attacks.

Both also stand to lose from staying in too long. Besides weakening and dividing the party and making it easier for McCain, this race is getting nastier and nastier. The loser stands to play a senior role in the party, Clinton has been mentioned as a possible Senate Majority Leader. Those possibilities go out the window if they’ve poisoned the ground behind them.

Looking at it pragmatically, Obama stepping aside for Clinton, and joining her on the ticket as VP, makes the best sense. Party united, experience mixed with idealism, and Obama gains the executive experience as VP to be a very formidable candidate down the road. As an Obama I’d be disappointed, because I think he can take this thing, but at what price? Really though he has the lead, he has the momentum, he shouldn't have to be the one to step aside.

There’s also a lot to be said for an Obama/Clinton ticket, with Hillary as the Leo McGarry to Barrack’s Matthew Santos. The experience balancing out the youthful idealism. And as a plus, Hillary has no history of heart problems I’m aware of.

So, will one of them step aside for the good of the party and country? In the West Wing Santos said no, and he went on to take the nomination and the presidency. Despite the parallels though while Obama may be very Santos-like, Clinton is no Bingo-Bob Russell and there’s no President Bartlett in the background to play powerbroker.

While I think the pressure will be on both of them to step aside, I just don’t see it happening. They’re both too close to winning. Also, you don’t get to be a successful politician without having a healthy ego, so I don’t think either are lacking in that department.

This one will go to the convention. It will be entertaining. In another pop culture parallel though, there will be blood.

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A few quick Friday hits

*On this whole calling for a probe into Marc Patone’s appointment by the Conservatives as a CRTC. While it is smelly that he was (briefly) a Conservative candidate, and I’m certainly open to any chance to take shots at the Harper government, I’m not sure I’m supportive of the big fuss being made here. His Conservative ties aside, I’d argue he’s qualified. Critics are saying he doesn’t have the management experience. True, but he was a broadcast reporter on the ground for 27 years. Frankly, I think we’ve got lots of media management experience at the CRTC. Maybe it’s the journalist in me talking, but I think it’s a good thing to have one CRTC commissioner that has some boots on the ground, actual newsroom experience. That said, the appointments process does need fixing, and if the heritage committee wants to talk to him that’s fine.

*By all accounts, it sounds like Kristy Duncan is a fine candidate to succeed Roy Cullen in Etobicoke North. And I’m glad to see the party didn’t dilly-dally, but made the appointment immediately after Cullen made his retirement official. It eliminated any potential questions, and gets the news of the new candidate in the same news cycle, helping to damper the another Liberal leaving spin. One concern though: it looks like the local riding association wasn’t informed before the announcement. They should have been. Hopefully this won’t lead to any ruffled feathers and mar what seems like a solid appointment.

*The knock on the Liberals is that they always campaign from the left and govern from the right. Well, I’d say centre, but anyway, Lawrence Martin says it looks like the Conservatives do much the same: govern from the centre-right (or at least pretend to) but run from the right.

*IP points the way to an interesting article from The Guardian about the similarities between the Santos Campaign on The West Wing, and the Barrack Obama campaign, and how indeed Santos was actually modeled after Obama. Art imitating life, life imitating art. Hopefully the parallels don’t go too much further though. WW producers originally had Santos losing to Arnie Vinick; it wasn’t until the death of John Spencer, who played Santos’ VP candidate, Leo McGarry, that producers decided to give Santos the win. And hopefully no nuclear power plants in Arizona will melt down or anything.

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