We’ll be reading much about polls, and how they’re not good for the Liberals. And they’re not.
And we’ll be reading much about how opposition leaders always have tough starts (they do), how things can quickly turn around (they can) and how campaigns matter (they do).
While obviously I pay attention to polls, I tell myself not to worry when they’re bad and not to get too confident when they’re good. Polls can concern me, and they do, and I believe they can be overcome, so I don’t worry in that sense.
But I would be a lot more confident if I sensed we had a plan, a strategy, a way to get us to where we need to go. Yes, polls are a snapshot. Yes, opposition leaders have rough starts. Yes, campaigns do matter. Yes, these things can, are and will be turned around. But not without a plan.
What concerns me is not so much the polling numbers as the fact I can’t discern at the moment what our winning strategy is to achieve that turnaround I believe to absolutely be possible.
And we do need a plan, because what we’re doing right now clearly isn’t working.
I don’t need polls to tell me that either. If I, as a Liberal, am unclear on just what the party currently stands for, if I’m unclear on just what our plan is, on what we want to do in government, on what our vision for the country is, then how can we expect Canadians to support us?
When I talk to members of the non-political Canadian majority, they don't follow the scandals that we politicos get all excited about. They don't care about who props-up who, or confidence motions, or the like. They're not Harper fans but they think he's done an adequate job. And they don't know Ignatieff, what he's for, or what the Liberals are all about. Harper's the devil they know.
Our strategy seems to be say nothing, commit to nothing, just attack Harper and wait for him to fall on his face. That pre-supposes, of course, that he will. Even if he does, if you don’t give Canadians a compelling alternative, if you don’t give them a distinct choice, nine times out of 10 they’ll stick with the devil they know.
I don’t know what we stand for. Apparently we’re against having “adult conversations” with Canadians, walking back the mere suggestion pretty dammed quickly. It would be a risky strategy, perhaps, but timidity isn’t going to get us anywhere. No risk, no reward.
No, instead we present a muddled negative vision that you don’t need to be an adult to see through. I used to mock the Conservatives for Harper’s declaration he’ll balance the budget without program spending cuts, tax increases or, now, transfer payments. It’s a non-sensical position that defies the laws of economics. You can’t grow your way out of a structural deficit of this size.
So imagine my annoyance when the Liberals echoed that same promise. We’d better have a good plan to back that up, I thought. I’m led to believe we do, but it’s a secret. Wait for the campaign. So, instead, we’re still bizarrely going around attacking the Conservative position while echoing its gravity-defying promise AND offering no alternative plan.
Never mind adults, junior high kids can see through that. If we’re not going to offer something different, mindless attacks are just that: mindless. It only draws attention to the absence of our own plan.
I’ve written before of my advice for Michael Ignatieff, as did Dan Arnold. George Young adds more good thoughts today.
Bottom line for me though:
* The Liberal Party needs to stand for something, besides wanting to be back in government.
* Fortune favours the daring, and punishes the timid. So find the balls to take some calculated risks.
* Treat Canadians like adults, maybe they’ll return the favour.
* Liberals need to see there’s a plan, that we’re all on this ship rowing somewhere together, and not just in circles.
Right now, I get the sense that we’re just drifting aimlessly, turning our sail to the scandal du jour, waiting for the Harper implosion that may never come.
That’s a course that is as likely to crash our ship on the rocks as anything else.
Will we recognize this and change course, or not?
Thursday, October 08, 2009
With no plan, it's better the devil you know
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Warren Kinsella unplugged and offline
Headed to Toronto-Danforth this evening (where Liberal Andrew Lang is ready to give Jack Layton a fight in the next election) to hear Warren Kinsella talk about European post-impressionism... ok, about politics. How to campaign, and how to win.
Much of his talk would have been familiar to readers of his blog writings over the years, but it was still interesting to hear it in person and it was an entertaining presentation. Here's a few random points he made:
*Speaking about the Conservative Party's obscene money advantage, he rightly noted that (as important as money is) if money was everything, Ross Perot would have been elected U.S. president. Or Steve Forbes. Or some other rich guy.
*What the Liberal pitch should be: government services, go green, the economy. We have the plan and the team, the Conservatives don't.
*The fight Jim Flaherty has been picking with Dalton McGuinty will go down as the dumbest strategy in history, and the best thing is they can't help themselves. Dalton was just re-elected last fall with an even bigger majority, clearly Ontarians much think he's doing something right. And agitating him will only get his loyalists more active federally for Stephane Dion. Also on Ontario, the fed Liberals would be wise to support McGuinty on his fiscal fairness push.
*Stephen Harper is doing well with male voters, they're not falling in love but many are thinking he's not as bad as we'd feared. Female voters, however, are smarter and more intuitive. They don't like Harper; they can tell something is off.
*In Quebec, Harper's spooning with Jean Charest is over and Mario Dumont has proven a wet firecracker, cozying up to him was a mistake. Harper's in trouble in Quebec. Yes, the Liberals aren't doing well either. But Quebecers are strategic voters, they like a winner, if the Liberals can get momentum in the rest of the country Quebecers will sense it and join the parade.
*Bloggers that think they can really affect political change should give their heads a shake, blogs will not supplant the main stream media. The Conservatives have deliberately decided to piss off the media, big mistake. They're putting a lot of stock in the new media, they think the political discourse is happening on the Web...it's not, and it's a fundamental miscalculation by the Conservatives.
*Stephane Dion is a decent, hard working guy...and so are Canadians. Well, and gals too. Canadians will always gravitate to the person most like them, because they think (rightly or wrongly) that's the person that will best understand them. Don't try to change Dion, people can sense a phony. Let him be himself, he comes off as earnest and sincere...just to eager and in a hurry. If he can slow down a little and explain what he's about, what he's proposing, people will get on board.
*Lastly, on the Web he says it's becoming all about being visual, and video. People won't read long blocks of text (except you, you're an exceptional Canadian, rock on). Campaigns need to get into video clips, like the McGuinty Liberals did last fall. (I made an amateur attempt last week.)
UPDATE: Now with video:
FURTHER UPDATE: Aaron Ginsberg of All Politics is Local was there too and adds his thoughts. And Dan too, with the top ten list.