Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Hot off the wire

The latest Ipsos Read poll just came out and some interesting results given all the talk of ads and gaffes on the blogsphere of late. The summary: Ontario still doesn't trust Stephen Harper and his mad acting skils (skillz?), and Quebec is still BQ country.

The full figures will probably be on TV tonight and in the CanWest papers tomorrow, they're only available online if you subscribe. The numbers they tease though are striking, and I'm sure will generate much consternation on The Right. Conservative supporters like to blame Ontario for not supporting them, but you have to wonder at what point will they look in the mirror and consider if maybe the problem is not Ontario, but them?

Liberals (36%, +2 Points) Ahead Of Conservatives (27%, -3 Points) By 9 Points Nationally

NDP (17%, +1 Point) And Green Party (5%, Unchanged) Trail Front-runners - In Quebec, Bloc Quebecois Dominates (56% vs. 25% For Liberals)

Grits Open Up Big Lead In Ontario (19 Points) Over Tories As Canadians Offer Tepid Reviews Of Tory Ads

Toronto, ON, December 13, 2005 - The latest Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News gives the Liberals (36%, +2 points from last week) a 9-point lead over the Conservatives (27%, -3 points) in the national polls -- a lead which apparently has been fuelled by a substantial shift in voter opinion in the crucial province of Ontario where the Liberals (47%, +6 points) have sprung out to an impressive 19-point lead on the Conservatives (28%, -6 points).

Premium Content subscribers can access the full release, with detailed tables, at:

Edited to add:

There's more stats from the poll at: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/news/releases/show.jsp?action=showRelease&searchText=false&showText=all&actionFor=571746

Some of the highlights (depending on your perspective):

Further, Canadians offer rather tepid reviews of the Conservatives recent election television advertising campaign. Among those who have seen the Conservative Party TV ads... 25% say the ads have made them "less likely" to vote Conservative. However, one in seven (15%) feel the ads will make them "more likely" to vote Conservative.

When those who say they do not plan to vote for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (those who plan to vote for Liberals, NDP, Bloc Quebecois, or Green Party) are asked why:

* 26% say "because they don't like Stephen Harper the Conservative leader";
* 48% say "because of the policies of the Conservative Party"; while
* 22% have some other reason for not voting for the Conservative Party.

Among those non-Conservative voters, these regional figures were pulled out by Ipsos:

* Those in Alberta (41%) and Atlantic Canada (40%) are the most likely to not vote Conservative because of Stephen Harper.
* Those in British Columbia (58%) and Quebec (53%) are the most likely to not vote Conservative because of the party's policies.

It seems Atlantic Canada still hasn't gotten over the culture of entitlement gaffe but the Alberta figure is interesting. Obviously he's still going to sweep Alberta, but it's food for thought. To know him is to not love him so much?

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