Sunday, September 17, 2006

Weekend musings

Bennett to Rae: Surprising, and undeniably a big win for Bob. It certainly has to give him the appearance of momentum, as both candidates to drop out of the race have now come to his camp. Momentum aside, as with Maurizio the real question is how many of her supporters will follow her to Rae, as many of his scattered among different camps. Ideologically here again, it doesn’t seem like a natural fit. I like Carolyn, and I really like what she has had to say about reforming the party, listening to the grassroots, and so on. And Bob, smart and talented guy that he is, hasn’t struck me as particularly in touch with the grassroots, shall we say. It’s not to diss Carolyn or Maurizio, or Bob, but I think they have most likely put ideology aside and evaluated Rae as the candidate most likely to win. That’s their choice, and their right. Needless to say I don’t share that evaluation, but I think it’s more important to support the best candidate, not necessarily the most electable one. Interesting times ahead.

Putting myths to rest: More evidence, if it was ever needed, that the myth of Stephen Dion being unelectable in his own province of Quebec is just that, a myth. According to last week’s survey data from the Gandalf Group, while his profile is low in the rest of the country (something that would change quickly, and could be moulded, as the leader) in Quebec, where they know him best, only 38 per cent of voters are likely not to vote for him as Liberal leader, meaning his negatives are in line with the other candidates. Moreover, 31 per cent of Quebecers said they would vote for Dion as Liberal leader. Given that the LPC is only polling at 20 per cent in Quebec, that’s an impressive number that has to give the BQ pause, and the Cons, pause in Quebec. Here’s what David Herle told Don Newman on Politics on Thursday, and it echoes what I’ve been saying on this topic for months now:

: Stephane Dion… some say his English isn't all that good and that he's a bit like Mr. Rae in Ontario.

Herle: Turns out not really to be true. There's a group of people in Quebec that really dislike Mr. Dion but they happen to be Bloc supporters and separatists. People that wouldn't vote for the Liberal Party in any event.

He has the strongest following in Quebec of any of the candidates. He's the number one choice of Quebecers to be leader of the Liberal Party.

And 31% of Quebecers say that they're certain or likely to vote liberal if he is the leader. For a party I showed at 20% that's a number you have to where and take seriously.

Brains and the lying liars: With the obvious news that you don’t need brains to be a Conservative candidate, and another admission that the CPC offered $50,000 to an undesirable candidate to drop out of a nomination race, I take this opportunity again to remind that Stephen Harper lied about this, scant months ago, to the Canadian people during an election campaign and has yet to offer an explanation for why.

Programming note: I’m in sunny and warm Orlando right now (it’s a sunny 24c right now, with a forecast high of 33c today) for a conference until Thursday, so light blogging ahead.

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm disappointed and shocked at Carolyn Bennett because of her attacks on Rae and because she got into politics because Rae made such a mess of healthcare in Ontario.

I wonder why she didn't pick Dion for example - why Rae. Well, this sound very peculiar to me and doesn't feel right. Imagine what she was offered. She just lost credibility in my view.

Dion's okay, but I can't understand the man when he speaks English and it would be nice to understand what a leader is saying.

Also, I doubt his debating ability with Harper. I watched him in the House of Commons and he just didn't have it.