Came across this article by Decima Research boss Bruce Anderson on the CTV Web site, where he analyzes their “last 7000 surveys on voting intentions” and attempts to draw some trends. It’s well over 1000 words and near as I can gather he has no idea what’s going on either.
Basically, the electorate is very fluid, more people are undecided and most people have very little loyalty to any of the parties. In short, it’s anyone's game.
One interesting point was that people might make their voting decision next election in a more positive way. Last time many were voting to punish the Liberals, or were scared of the Conservatives. Both the fear and the anger have dissipated but while people can now vote for a more positive reason, Anderson concludes there’s nothing to get people particularly passionate at the moment.
Overall, the piece has plenty to please and displease everyone, but here’s some of the top line conclusions:
The Conservatives have done better at retaining the support of those who voted for them in 2006, losing only 15 per cent of their supporters. The lost points went to the Liberals (six per cent), the NDP (four per cent) the Green Party (three per cent) and the BQ (one per cent).So, really, everyone is at square one. With the Conservatives sticking to attack politics and lame political stunts and gimmicks, I remain convinced the Liberals need to do something to capture the imagination of Canadians. It’s not enough to give people a reason not to vote Conservative, we need to give them a reason to vote Liberal.
The Liberals have lost 22 per cent of their 2006 voters. Ten per cent went to the Conservatives, five to the NDP, five to the Greens and just one per cent to the BQ.
The BQ has lost 23 per cent of its support, with six per cent siphoned off by the Conservatives, six per cent to the Greens, five per cent to the NDP, and only three to the Liberals.
The NDP has lost a quarter of its support an even 25 per cent. Ten per cent went to the Liberals, seven per cent to the Greens, 5 per cent to the Conservatives, and 1% to the BQ.
This summer, as I’ve written before, the Liberal team needs to hit the bbq circuit and put some meat on the three pillar policy bones, particularly the economy and social justice pillars. Then we need to come back in the Fall with some fire, and I think it would be a good time for a policy big bang, something that will give substance to the philosophies and connect with Canadians.
UPDATE: The Tyee has an idea. They want Dion to embrace electoral reform... Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers