Surprisingly, there's still room to define Ignatieff

Perhaps wanting to make nice with the Conservatives after releasing horse-race numbers that aren’t overly positive for the ruling party, Harris-Decima released party leader impression numbers yesterday and, while they show sharp declines in popularity for Stephen Harper, Allan Gregg’s lede is that Michael Ignatieff isn’t capitalizing and is still the most unpopular of the Big Three.

First, the numbers. Stephen Harper scored a 44% favourable (down 7 from November) and a 48% unfavourable (up 7). Michael Ignatieff’s numbers were little changed from November, with 30% favourable and 48% unfavourable. No change numbers were provided for the other leaders, but Jack Layton had the best net score with 47% favourable vs 37% unfavourable. Elizabeth May scored 32% positive vs 28% negative.

They broke down the numbers for the big two by a number of demographics, as well as party supporters, which provided some interesting numbers, although not super surprising. For example, Harper’s base would appear secure with a 86% favourability from Conservative supporters. Ignatieff managed 56% favourable from Liberal supporters.

Interestingly, for a guy who is painted by his opponents as a fairly conservative fellow, Ignatieff’s best approval from other party supporters came from NDP supporters, who gave him a 32% favourable (vs 49% unfavourable). Greens really don’t like him, but there does seem to be more openness to him on the left than on the right, which is somewhat counter-intuitive to the narrative.

Anyway, you can dig through the PDF for more tidbits and data. Certainty, while I find Gregg’s choice of emphasis a little amusing I don’t disagree that Ignatieff hasn’t (yet) capitalized personally on prorogation, nor have the Liberals. These numbers aren’t surprising though; it’s too early for any of the work happening since Ignatieff’s prorogation presser to have paid the sorts of dividends that would show in such a poll. And nothing else has happened since November to move his numbers.

Growth Potential

The point I did want to make though is about growth potential, or more accurately the room still left to define and set impressions of the leaders, namely Ignatieff. Add up the numbers and you find 92% of Canadians have some sort of impression, good or bad, of Harper. He’s a known quantity. But just 78% of Canadians have an impression of Ignatieff. That means 22% have no impression of him at all.

We need to move that 48% unfavourable number, and I think we can if we do what we need to do (and there are signs we’re starting to, fingers crossed). But the fact that 22% is still greenfield also says there is still an opportunity to define Ignatieff with a good chunk of the population that hasn’t formed an opinion one way or another, despite the massive and expensive Conservative negative ad onslaught.

And that’s an opportunity.

(Photo: Radey Barrack)

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

A poll for every season

If you're a Conservative, you'll highlight this poll, out today, to the exclusion of all others:

The Conservatives now command 39% in support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Liberals have slumped seven points.

If you're a Liberal, you'll highlight this poll, also out today, and note how it is in line with every other poll from every other pollster, with the exception of that other one today from Ipsos:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.

That same Liberal might also mention that Decima polled 2,000 people from Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20, while Ipsos polled 1,001 people from Aug. 18-20 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

However, if you're smart you'll ignore the constant barrage of media polls as simple white noise and focus instead on what's important: building your organization, electing candidates, fundraising, and ensuring that you're ready to fight the next election, whenever that may be.

Because polls, as they say, are for dancing.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Liberals dominant in the 905, 416

More regionals from the Decima poll released earlier today that give credence to the earlier comments of strong Liberal numbers on Ontario:

On a national basis, voter intentions give the Liberals 35 per cent, the Conservatives 31, the NDP 15, the Bloc nine and the Greens eight.

Across Ontario the Liberals lead the Conservatives 42-31. The NDP has 14 per cent and the Greens have 11 per cent. There is a 3.8 per cent margin of error in the provincial numbers.

In Toronto itself and around the curve of eastern curve of Lake Ontario, the Liberal lead is even more pronounced.

In the 416 area code in Toronto itself, the Liberals have the support of 52 per cent of respondents, while the Conservatives and NDP are tied at 19 per cent. The margin of error for this sample is eight per cent.

In the 905 region, the Liberal lead is 50-27, with the NDP at 11 per cent. The margin of error in this data is 7.8 per cent. Before the last election, the Tories led 44-32 here.

That 905 number is massive. It's a substantial reverse of Conservative fortunes, and is a sign a lot of Conservative incumbents should start polishing their resumes. The 905 was Mike Harris country. It's an area filled with the key demographics the Conservatives have been scientifically targeting for years, and making steady progress with. That 905 # is as stunning a rejection of the Harper Conservatives as is the Quebec polling we've seen, and it's as damaging to their re-election chances.

This was also interesting:

Walker said the data from the 416 area code suggests the NDP is tied with the Tories in support.

"With those splits it means the NDP has very little chance of winning more than one or two ridings in 416," he said. "The NDP has absolutely no incentive to go to an election right now."

That would be shocking as well. Would Jack be left standing alone in Danforth? Interesting times ahead, mes amis.

But back to the 905, with these numbers I'm reminded of the provincial results and this demographic data. These sorts of demographic shifts around urbanization and its impact on voting patters merit watching over time. Another area to watch is Kaploops and Kelowna in BC, and how urbanization impacts their voting patterns.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Decima: Attack ads hurt Harper more than Ignatieff

Submitted for your consideration, CP coverage of a recent Decima poll:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll found that about half the respondents said the ads had no impact on their impression of the Liberal leader, with 30 per cent reporting a negative effect on their attitude toward him.

However, just over half of the respondents said the ads have a negative effect on their feelings about Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Tories.

``The effect seems to cut both ways,'' said Jeff Walker, senior vice-president of Harris-Decima. ``There is evidence that these ads are having a negative effect on Mr. Ignatieff, but an even greater negative effect on Prime Minister Harper.''

Interesting, as they say.

I'd add three things:

1/ It's too early to gauge the real impact, if any, of these ads. These things can take awhile to sink in. As long a Ignatieff doesn't play into the narrative however (and, indeed, perhaps turns it against them) then these numbers could well hold up.

2/ I don't buy theories about backlashes for negative ads. I think the backlash figure could be inflated just because people like to say they don't like negative ads. So they may well tell the pollster that to feel superior. They also tell pollsters they lots of vegetables. But they still eat more cheeseburgers than they do carrots.

3/ For any of these numbers to offer any insight the pollster would need to tie then to voting intention So your impression of Ignatieff or Harper is more negative. So what? The question to ask is, will this cause you to change your vote? That would be a more interesting question.

So, my evaluation would be the jury is still out, but the campaign isn't looking like a great success so far. Certainly not of "not a leader" levels at least. But time will tell.

Any-ho, Steve has more on a similar Quebec-only poll. And on this one.
____
PS. Check-out my entry for the YLC's positive politics ad challenge, "Is this your Canada?"

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Decima confirms growing Liberal strength

A poll out today from Harris-Decima contains more good news for Liberals, and shows the Conservatives at a low-point I don't recall seeing them at in some time:

A new poll suggests the federal Liberals are edging ahead of the Conservatives nationally on the strength of rising support among urban women and Quebecers.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.

Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

Support among survey respondents for both the Tories and New Democrats was down five points from the October election.

Frankly, that Conservative number seems very low to me, and I'd advise strong caution making too much of it. Were that number real, given the Conservative over-strength in Alberta and the traditional greater efficiency of the Liberal vote, it would be very bad for Harper. But I'd like to see how that breaks down regionally.

What is positive to take here is the two things the article highlights: women, and Quebec. Liberals can't win without women; we lost them in 2008 and they almost gave Harper his majority. Getting them back is crucial.

Also, this poll confirms the reporters of growing Liberal strength in Quebec. And my conversations with Quebec friends at the convention assure me these numbers are real. It's not entirely an anti-Harper vote either. There's a real desire, I'm told, to give Ignatieff a chance.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Liberals, Tories in dead heat: poll

I'm just out the door for an evening of root beer and merry making so I've no time to crunch and analyze these numbers. Instead, I'll just push these hot of the press CP-Harris Decima polling numbers that just crossed my desk out to you to chew over and analyze, and perhaps I'll chime in later.

Here's the CP story:

Liberals, Tories in dead heat: poll
Source: The Canadian Press
Mar 13, 2009 16:46

OTTAWA _ A new poll suggests the federal Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat _ but Tory support is dropping in some parts of the country and among women.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Liberals at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 32.

The NDP was at 14 per cent, the Greens at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

It suggests the Tories trail the Liberals by five percentage points among women overall and by 12 points among urban women.

The Conservatives have also seen their support plummet in Quebec, leaving them in a distant third place.

The Liberals were ahead in Ontario, where NDP support has sagged into a low-teens tie with the Greens. The telephone poll of 2,000 people was conducted Feb. 26 to March 8, and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Here's a link to the PDF with the juicy goodies from Decima.

And here's a chart with lots of red:


My quick thoughts? If we're getting women back that's good, we lost them to the Conservatives in the last election and it really hurt us. I hope the signs of Liberal recovery in BC hold. I like that we're gaining from the Conservatives in Quebec. And what up with the NDP only at 13, tied with the Greens, in Ontario? Overall results that mirror previous recent polls, and not bad from a Liberal perspective at all.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Poll vindicates Liberal budget position (UPDATED)

Hot off the CP wire:

Ignatieff was spot on with budget compromise: poll (Fedbudget-Poll)
Source: The Canadian Press - Broadcast wire
Feb 3, 2009 15:28

------------------------------

------------------------------------------
--------

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff struck a chord with the public by compromising over the federal budget.

Ignatieff's offer to support the Conservatives' fiscal policies in return for a pledge for regular status reports on the economy won majority support from respondents across the country.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found that 72 per cent of respondents supported the idea of quarterly updates, with only 20 per cent opposed.

The poll also suggested the Conservatives read people correctly in drafting the budget, with 62 per cent of respondents saying they wanted it passed and only 20 per cent opposed.

Support for Ignatieff's decision cut across all political parties, with 85 per cent of Liberal backers, 75 per cent of Bloc supporters and even 64 per cent of Conservatives saying it was a good idea.

The survey was part of a national omnibus phone survey which interviewed just over 1,000 people between Jan. 30 and Feb. 2, and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

(The Canadian Press)

UPDATE: Now with analysis:

Jeff Walker, senior vice-president of Harris-Decima, said it looks as if Ignatieff hit one out of the park in this case.

``That's exactly what I saw when I got those numbers,'' he said. ``It seems that he struck the right tone ... he made the right decision.''

Walker also said the data suggest that the idea of an opposition coalition to replace Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government is dead.


``Among Liberals, there was almost universal support for what he did and almost _ arguably absolutely _ no support among Liberals of going for the coalition.''

The survey also suggested that Canadians are more insistent than ever that their politicians put aside partisan bickering.

Walker said that sentiment has grown since Harper's ill-starred fiscal update before Christmas, which brought his minority government to the brink of defeat.

``Canadians were not really very happy with the way in which the Conservatives went about delivering that economic statement,'' he said.

``It seemed to have purposely poked the other guys in the eye for no reason other than politics and it didn't fit with where people feel we are right now in terms of the economy and the importance of getting government right, right now.''

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Fortune favours the daring

Two polls came out today, one from Angus Reid and the other from Harris-Decima . One shows it C34/L28, the other C31/L30. I prefer the latter one, for obvious reasons.

I'll leave the analysis to Steve, Scott and others, and there is something interesting stuff in some of the regionals (NDP and Greens tied in Ontario?). I will say that I think it's too early to look for what reaction there will be, if any, to the Cadman affair. Both these polls were conducted or began very early in that story. These things take some time to percolate, we should check back in a few weeks and I'll of course wait for The Nanos to weigh-in from on high.

I wanted though to note though this line from Angus Reid:

While Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion was critical of the budget, he immediately announced his party would not defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government.

Only 24 per cent of those polled supported his actions, with 51 per cent saying they disapproved of his performance.

And this from Decima:

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have taken a beating in public opinion over the past week, but the opposition Liberals have done nothing to capitalize.

He's says the two major parties are in a neck-and-neck battle and neither appears to be gaining an edge.

If we'd said last Tuesday we're voting NO to this budget, I'd wager we'd be seeing very different poll numbers today. It would have been a gamble, yes. But fortune favours the daring, and it appears that for week one of the campaign at least the electoral gods would have been smiling upon us.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Taxes, schadenfreude, Americans, resignations, selective memories and the Queen

*Can’t buy a majority: According to the good folks at Decima, over the holidays the Conservatives gained a seven point lead in the polls. All they had to do was not be in the HoC or committee facing daily attacks, not have the opposition in the news, have no news stories on Mulroney and Schreiber or Lunn’s nuclear bungling or Afghanistan, get everyone sleepy from copious amounts of turkey, and force-feed them fawning year-end media interviews. And get lots of free advertising from TSN.

Oh, and spend billions more dollars cutting the GST by one point. Can’t forget that. In spite of everything, I’m starting to feel bad for Stephen Harper. He picks the week after Christmas for his big announcement, when things are slow and the media A team is on holiday, guaranteeing compliant coverage from the B team. He gets wall-to-wall fawning coverage of his tax cut, and still he can’t even scratch into majority territory on a temporary post-announcement blip.

OK, I don’t really feel sorry for him. I think it’s pretty funny actually.

*Schadenfreude: From the same polling story:

The latest poll contains plenty of bad news for the NDP.
The party -- which won a historic Quebec byelection in September and hopes to take more seats in the province -- sagged to eight per cent in Quebec. The Green party had nine per cent in the province.
It was almost as bad for New Democrats in Ontario. In that province, Liberals held a 40-37 lead over the Tories, while the NDP was at 12 per cent and the Green party was at 10.

What was that again about an orange wave, Jack?

*Americans: I can’t bring myself to get too interested or excited about the ongoing U.S. presidential primaries. For what it’s worth, I’m pulling for Obama. He’ll have a tough fight against Clinton, but he has a shot. I have to laugh at some of the media coverage the past few weeks though, by both our press and the American press, particularly around the New Hampshire results. They seem to be trying to spin Obama’s close second place finish as a major defeat; I guess because he pulled-out a surprise win in Iowa he was expected to run the boards. Now they’re casting Clinton as the comeback kid, because she barely managed to hold a state she once had a much bigger lead in, not to mention a lot more organizational muscle. And then there’s the tear-gate nonsense. The primary process is a marathon, not a sprint. Wake me up in a month or two.

*Resignations: MP Brian Pallister is quitting politics and won’t run in the next election. I was about to do a post on how this is another rat fleeing a sinking Liberal ship, another sign Dion is not a leader, and another sign a Conservative (or NDP) wave is about to sweep the country. Then I remembered Pallister is a Conservative, so it must just be family reasons and not a sinister conspiracy.

*National Compost: The editors at the Post are all indignant and up in arms today (not too unusual really), demanding justice in a story so ridiculous it doesn’t bare a full summary, and so much of a non-story you probably haven’t heard of it unless you read the Post or are a Conservative die-hard (all five of you). To the Post editors though, since they are obviously so concerned about this, they might want to go back and talk to their newsroom colleagues that were around in the late nineties, when the Post’s “investigative journalists” worked hand in hand with the Canadian Alliance, trying to bring down the Chretien government with the bogus crap pile of accusations known as Shawinigate. Did Post reporters ever leak information to the Alliance, to be used in QP, so they could then write about it in the Post? Umm, does a bear shit in the woods?

The Post today says: Name the guilty reporter, and let the public see what penalty has been meted out.

Actually, come to think of if, in the Shawinigate case justice was served. Chretien won another majority, Stock Day faced open rebellion in his caucus, and no one still reads the National Post.

*God save the Wii: Ending on a positive note, I enjoyed this story:

God save the Queen: She's now playing Wii

By GamePro staff
GamePro (online)

SAN FRANCISCO (01/07/2008) - Queen Elizabeth II is reportedly enamored with Nintendo's Wii.

According to a tabloid source close to UK's The People, The Queen is showing signs of becoming a "Nintendo addict" after getting her aging hands on her grandson's newly gifted Wii.

"When she saw [Prince] William playing a game after lunch at Sandringham... she begged to join in," the unnamed contact alleges. "She played a simple ten-pin bowling game and by all accounts was a natural... William was in fits of laughter. He was enormously impressed at having such a cool gran."

Since 2001, Her Majesty has regularly upgraded her cell phone before deciding on a Blackberry which she uses today. She sends email (queen@england.gov maybe?), listens to an iPod, and has seemingly turned into one of these.

I just have one point of contention however, and it’s with Prince William. He thought his Gran was cool for playing the Wii? I’d say having her face on all the money was already pretty cool, but that’s just me.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

A Merry Christmas from Decima

Not that we should get too excited, but this recent polling news from the folks at Decima certainly should help to warm Liberal hearts a little the week before Christmas.

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have lost their big lead over the Liberals, plunging six percentage points in popular support in just one week.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey puts the Tories at 30-per-cent support, in a statistical tie with the Liberals, who are up four points to 32 per cent.

Support for the Tories dropped across all regions and demographic groups.

The striking shift comes in the wake of several controversies which may be taking a toll on the governing party:

• Former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney's admission that he accepted cash-stuffed envelopes from arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber.
• Heavy criticism of Canada's position at the climate-change summit in Bali.
• The political fallout from a critical shortage of medical isotopes due to the shutdown of the Chalk River nuclear reactor.

In other polling news, Decima also says while the public doesn't believe Brian Mulroney in this whole Schreiber business, they also don't want a public inquiry.

I'd submit though that the decision to go forward shouldn't be based on polls, but on whether or not there are grounds for an inquiry and issues that still need to be explained. I think there are still serious unanswered questions here that perhaps can only be addressed by an inquiry.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Stay the course on Mulroney

A recent Decima poll says the Mulroney/Schrieber drama hasn’t yet resonated with voters or hurt Conservative support (hasn’t helped it either). That’s not totally surprising, and shouldn’t dissuade the opposition from pursuing the case

The fact is, these things take time to percolate and seep into the public consciousness, and begin to impact polling numbers. I don’t want to bring forward case studies of past scandals, but nevertheless history bears out that these things take time.

Whether it is moving the polls yet or not, there are several very good strategic reasons for the opposition to continue pressing on this issue. Although, if I can digress for a moment, we shouldn’t go all Mulroney all the time. Child poverty, cities, Afghanistan, we need to be talking about a variety of issues.

We should keep the Mulroney pressure on though, for a number of reasons. Particularly the Harper PMO’s handling of the affair and the letter/s. For one, even if we don’t gain in the polls from it, tying Harper to this is important. The Conservatives ran the last election on being squeaky clean, doing politics differently, accountability, yada yada. We need to knock that undeserved halo off their heads. Even if the public attitude is a pox on all their houses, at least the pox is on their house too, and their hypoctical holier than thouness is exposed. With that playing field leveled and arrow taken out of their quiver, we can move the debate to issues that will benefit us.

Secondly, the more we push on this, the more Harper needs to distance himself from Mulroney. We’ve already seen him forbid all ministers and MPs, including Mulroney friends like Majorie LeBreton and Hugh Segal, from talking to Mulroney until this is resolved. The more pressure applied, the more we’ll see old Reform/Alliance types saying ‘hey, I was a Reformer, I didn’t like the PCs’ and other comments distancing themselves from the Mulroney legacy. For those Mulroney loyalists and old PCers still in the CPC those comments will grate, and start to tear a the fragile seams that hold the delicate CPC marriage of divergent interests (westerners, PCers, Quebecers) together. If those seams start to tear, the opposition will begin to benefit in the medium to long term.

And the other, non-strategic reason to keep the pressure on is simply because there are important issues that need to be settled here, and questions that need to be resolved. Should $2.1M in taxpayer dollars be recovered? Might someone have broken some rules? That should be found out.

So, I hope that, regardless of what short term polls say, we keep the pressure up on this file. Because polls don’t always tell the whole story, particularly in the short term. Stay the course.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Beautifully Liberal British Columbia

With all this talk about Liberal fortunes in certain provinces, I think it's appropriate to pause and consider just how well the Liberals are doing in my home province of British Columbia.

Last week's Decima poll (conducted Sept. 27 thru Oct. 1) put the Liberals in the lead in B.C. at 33 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives at 29 per cent, with the NDP fading to third.

"These numbers provide further evidence of what we have been hearing on the ground for months, people in our province are growing tired of being ignored by the Harper government. We need a government that will support our communities hit hard by the mountain pine beetle, a government that actually believes in environmental sustainability, a government that has a strong vision for BC's leadership role in Canada. Only the Liberal Party led by Stéphane Dion will offer this kind of government. Stéphane Dion's love for Canada and message of hope is resonating with British Columbians" said Pam McDonald, B.C. Campaign Co-Chair.

Stephane Dion has made a number of well-received visits to the province since he became leader, and Michael Ingatieff has been a regular visitor as well. Iggy will be in Vancouver tomorrow actually for a fundraiser at the Vancouver Acquarium.

Indeed, the province has been a major focus for the Liberals for a number of years, with a number of star candidates recruited in past elections. Some successful, like Ujal Dosanjh. Some not, like Dave Haggard and Miles Richardson. Others, well, David Emerson has been in two straight cabinets. Sure, the latest one isn't Liberal, but still...

The popular, B.C.-focused 'Made in B.C.' policy agendas have also been well received (so well the Cons tried to copy it last election with a pale imitation), and contributed to the results in the last two elections that saw the Liberals gain seats in the province, and the Conservatives lose seats.

With the hard work being done in the province by Dion and the Liberal team in B.C., which according to these poll results looks to be paying off, it looks like the trend seems to be continuing with good potential to expand our seat count in the province in the next election.

We need to turn things around in Quebec, I don't minimize that. But across the rest of the country we're in pretty good shape and, indeed, as in B.C. there's a lot of bright spots. Any gains the Cons make in Quebec will likely be wiped out by loses in B.C., the Prairies, Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

While we obsess over Quebec, let's not forget the good work being done on the left coast.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Lazy reporting, biased reporting, and just plain wrong reporting

Given the discussion the other day about the MSM's recent Conservative bias, it's interesting to see how different media outlets are reporting new federal polling results from Decima.

First, let's look at the Canadian Press:

New poll gives Harper Tories seven point spread on sagging Liberals
1 minute ago

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have begun putting some distance between themselves and the sagging Liberal party.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates a seven percentage point spread between Prime Minister Stephen Harper's governing Tories and Stephane Dion's opposition Grits.

The poll of just more than 1,000 Canadians last Thursday through Sunday put Conservative support at 35 per cent nationally, still one point below what the minority government achieved on election day in 2006.

The Liberals, however, slipped to 28 per cent among decided and leaning voters as three weeks of very public recriminations and infighting began to take their toll.

Editorializing here that's odd for a news organization like CP. Sagging would be a questionable comment for a news piece, even if it were supported by fact. And here they haven't backed it up. Where were the parties in the last poll, so we can compare the change and try to discern a trend? What's the margin of error? These are all things needed to accurately judge the poll.

But we'll get to that. Next, let's look at how another news wire, Reuters, covered the same poll:

Canada's ruling Conservatives open big poll lead

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives have opened up a big lead over the opposition Liberals but do not have enough backing to win a majority in a federal election, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

The Harris-Decima survey for Canadian Press suggested Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government was starting to benefit from turmoil inside the Liberal Party over what some members say is a poor performance by leader Stephane Dion.

The poll put the Conservatives at 35 percent, up from 29 percent in a survey the same firm did in mid-June. The Liberals dropped to 28 percent from 32 percent.

The Conservatives won power in January 2006 with 36 percent of the vote.
...
The Harris-Decima survey of 1,000 people was carried out from October 6 to 9 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A big lead, hmm? Well, that's subjective.

At least we have some more information here. Unfortunately, they got it wrong. They transposed the Liberal and Con figures from the last poll. The last poll was Liberals 29, Cons 33, not vice versa. At least they tried to include it though, CP didn't even bother. So, now we see it's hard to say Liberal support sagged, they have it down one per cent. And the Cons up three per cent.

And they included the margin of error too. And it's 3.1 per cent. Which means all the movement was within the margin of error, something they overlook as they try to fit this into their pre-determined narrative of an ascendant Conservative Party and a sagging Liberal Party. In reality, you can't discern much of anything from these numbers. Both parties are still failing to gain much traction. Dido the NDP. Reading any more into the numbers is wishful thinking and spin. Which is certaintly fun, but not appropriate for news covergae.

Lastly, on the bias front, comes this line from Reuters:

Dion, who critics say is inexperienced and incompetent, is due to shuffle his shadow cabinet later on Tuesday.

Says who, your mom? Tom Flanagan?

A news story can't just toss out this kind of BS unsourced, it needs to be attributed. Who are these critics? This is a ridiculous slander to just toss into a non-opinion news piece. This is Reuters, not the Blogging Tories.

I'm a critic, and I think Stephen Harper is an arrogant and vindicative flip flopper and control freak who has failed to gain any ground among Canadians and leads a directionless and purposeless government that, despite all the Liberal troubles, is still well short of majority territory and is even off his last election result. And I'm far from the only one.

Why not toss that unsourced into your news coverage Reuters? It's just as valid and relevant, even if it doesn't for your pre-determined narrative.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

New poll has Liberals ahead of Cons by 3

After a few months of polls have had the Conservatives statistically ahead of the Liberals but within the margin of error, now Decima has the Liberals ahead by 3, but within the margin of error.

I like the trends, though I’d still like to see more yeast in the Liberal numbers. Still, nice to see. Note the regional numbers too, Libs at 39 in Ontario and 7 up on the Cons in Quebec.

I trust the Blogging Tories will be busy explaining how this puts Decivin’ Steven one step closer to a majority, how he has the Liberals right where he wants them, and how Harper is such a strategic genius.

But seriously, for the Conservatives this should serve as a wake-up call. Whether it will or not is another matter, it could be blown off as within the margin of error. That would be a head in sand move though, the trends have become clear. They need to smarten-up.

For the Liberals, while heartening it's not a cause for jubilation. They say governments defeat themselves, and Decivin' Steven is doing his part. But while his numbers have declined ours haven't budged. We need to start capitalizing on Conservative weakness better.

Conservatives have fallen three percentage points behind the Liberals: Poll

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have fallen three percentage points behind the Liberals in popular support, still within the survey's margin of error but a trend the Harper government would no doubt like to reverse.

The poll by Decima Research, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, placed Liberal support at 32 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 and the NDP at 18. The Bloc Quebecois and Green party were tied nationally at nine per cent.

The telephone survey of just more than 1,000 Canadians was conducted from last Thursday until Monday.

(more)

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Poll smoking

Came across this article by Decima Research boss Bruce Anderson on the CTV Web site, where he analyzes their “last 7000 surveys on voting intentions” and attempts to draw some trends. It’s well over 1000 words and near as I can gather he has no idea what’s going on either.

Basically, the electorate is very fluid, more people are undecided and most people have very little loyalty to any of the parties. In short, it’s anyone's game.

One interesting point was that people might make their voting decision next election in a more positive way. Last time many were voting to punish the Liberals, or were scared of the Conservatives. Both the fear and the anger have dissipated but while people can now vote for a more positive reason, Anderson concludes there’s nothing to get people particularly passionate at the moment.

Overall, the piece has plenty to please and displease everyone, but here’s some of the top line conclusions:

The Conservatives have done better at retaining the support of those who voted for them in 2006, losing only 15 per cent of their supporters. The lost points went to the Liberals (six per cent), the NDP (four per cent) the Green Party (three per cent) and the BQ (one per cent).

The Liberals have lost 22 per cent of their 2006 voters. Ten per cent went to the Conservatives, five to the NDP, five to the Greens and just one per cent to the BQ.

The BQ has lost 23 per cent of its support, with six per cent siphoned off by the Conservatives, six per cent to the Greens, five per cent to the NDP, and only three to the Liberals.

The NDP has lost a quarter of its support an even 25 per cent. Ten per cent went to the Liberals, seven per cent to the Greens, 5 per cent to the Conservatives, and 1% to the BQ.

So, really, everyone is at square one. With the Conservatives sticking to attack politics and lame political stunts and gimmicks, I remain convinced the Liberals need to do something to capture the imagination of Canadians. It’s not enough to give people a reason not to vote Conservative, we need to give them a reason to vote Liberal.

This summer, as I’ve written before, the Liberal team needs to hit the bbq circuit and put some meat on the three pillar policy bones, particularly the economy and social justice pillars. Then we need to come back in the Fall with some fire, and I think it would be a good time for a policy big bang, something that will give substance to the philosophies and connect with Canadians.

Any ideas?

UPDATE: The Tyee has an idea. They want Dion to embrace electoral reform...

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers

Federally mandated poll post

I've been busy at work today but I have been informed by the CRTC that if I don't do a post on polling tout de suite I'll forfeit my secret blogger decoder ring.

Not wanting that to happen, and still being busy, please allow me to reprint this post from August 3, 2006, at a time there was much polling joy in Liberal land, called Polls are for dancing:

There seems to be much glee and rejoicing around the Liberal blogsphere these days over recent positive poll results, including a Decima poll today that shows the Liberals just one point behind the Conservatives.

Positive news, to be sure. But let's not get carried away here. In fact, let's try not to pay too much attention to the polls at all. Was it that long ago that we were very low in the polls, subject to lots of Conservative carping about their coming majority? Things change quickly, and they can change quickly again.

I consider polling to be mainly a junk science anyway, take a look at how well most polling companies did calling the last election. Public opinion is also a fickle thing, and can change on a dime. This week the results seem to be driven by a poor opinion of Harper's Middle East policy. Who knows what the issue will be next week.

My point is that we shouldn't pay attention to the polls because our ability to influence them, particularly in opposition, is limited. And no matter what our position in the polls, our job is still the same.

I think we’re on the right track with a good leadership race that is now heating up. I think we need to be a more forceful and effective opposition when Parliament resumes in the fall, and I hope that message goes out at the caucus meetings this month in Funcouver.

We need to just keep doing our job, and if we do it well the people will come around and the support will be there. Newspapers may like polls, but for us there's only one poll that counts. And I don’t mean SES.

Lesson being, things change, and can change quick, so don’t get hung-up on polls good or bad. We need to stop obsessing over every poll result, trying to debunk it or issue dire warnings. We know we have work to do. We know what needs to be done. So let's just do it.

Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers