A poll for every season

If you're a Conservative, you'll highlight this poll, out today, to the exclusion of all others:

The Conservatives now command 39% in support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Liberals have slumped seven points.

If you're a Liberal, you'll highlight this poll, also out today, and note how it is in line with every other poll from every other pollster, with the exception of that other one today from Ipsos:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.

That same Liberal might also mention that Decima polled 2,000 people from Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20, while Ipsos polled 1,001 people from Aug. 18-20 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

However, if you're smart you'll ignore the constant barrage of media polls as simple white noise and focus instead on what's important: building your organization, electing candidates, fundraising, and ensuring that you're ready to fight the next election, whenever that may be.

Because polls, as they say, are for dancing.

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Polling polarization

I'll leave the in depth polling analysis to Steve, but looking at these Ipsos numbers I have to say what strikes me most is the sharp polarization of the regional numbers, and between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Regionally, the Conservatives have huge leads from Manitoba east, while in Atlantic Canada the Liberals have a strong lead, in Quebec the BQ a strong lead over the Liberals (with the Conservatives well back) and in Ontario, the Liberals are opening-up a five point lead.

Nationally, the numbers are very tight at Conservatives 37 to Liberals 33 (and NDP 12). But seeing the support so divided along regional lines is troubling. I know Michael Ignatieff has been working on reaching-out to the West, and I don't take these numbers as a failure of that effort at all -- it's going to be a long term project -- but they should emphasize that the Liberal Party absolutely needs to make breaking into Western Canada a top priority.

The other polarization is between the two viable contenders for government: the Conservatives and the Liberals. The NDP seems to be falling off the radar as a viable option for most Canadians. Their 12 per cent national figure is very low, and the regionals offer them little room for hope. I'm particularly surprised by their distant third place showing in BC, where the provincial dippers have a decent shot at government in May.

I certaintly have my theories on the NDP numbers. Far from me to give them advice, they've made clear they don't want it. And it's not that hard to figure out anyways.

Anyway-ho, here's the numbers:

Ignatieff Liberals (33%) Continue to Edge Closer to Harper Conservatives
Grits (42%) Open a 5-Point Lead in Ontario over Tories (37%)

Attention: News Editor

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwire - March 10, 2009) - Toronto, ON - As politicians in Ottawa focus on how best to spend budgeted stimulus funds to help steer Canada out of an economic recession by creating jobs, a new Ipsos Reid poll of over 2,000 Canadians conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television has revealed that Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal Party continue to make gains on Prime Minister Harper's Conservative Government.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive support from 37% of decided voters (unchanged from early February), while the Liberals would receive 33% support, up 2 points nationally. While the Liberals continue to make steady gains since Mr. Ignatieff took over the helm of the party, Conservative support has flat-lined as they failed to receive a post Obama-visit gain in the polls just weeks after the American President's first official state-visit abroad.

The NDP would receive support from 12% of Canadians (down 2 points), while the Green Party would receive 8% of the vote (up 1 point). The Bloc is enjoying support from 10% of decided voters nationally (unchanged), or 41% in Quebec. Six percent (6%) remain undecided.

Support for the major parties varies by region, and it appears that gains in Ontario are driving the increase in support for the Liberals:

In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals (42%) have opened up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives (37%), while the NDP (12%) and Greens (8%) are far behind.

In Quebec, the Bloc (41%) maintains a healthy lead over the Liberals (27%), while the Conservatives continue to trail off (16%). The NDP (10%) and Green Party (6%) lag.

In British Columbia, the Tories (50%) have a wide lead over the Grits (26%), NDP (14%), and Green Party (9%).

In Alberta, the Conservatives (70%) continue to paint the province blue, while the Liberals (15%), NDP (10%) and Green Party (6%) are well behind.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives have 49% support, followed by the Liberals (28%), NDP (16%) and Green Party (6%).

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (41%) are on top, followed by the Tories (29%), the NDP (17%) and the Green Party (12%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted February 24 to March 5, 2009 for Canwest News Service and Global Television. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2,002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

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Another poll to ponder

A few interesting stats to ponder in this post-Liberal leadership poll from Ipsos Reid:

A new poll suggests Canadians are favourably impressed by Michael Ignatieff's installation as federal Liberal leader.

Half of respondents to The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima survey said they reacted positively when the Liberal party last week chose Ignatieff to replace Stephane Dion at the helm.

Only 11 per cent reacted negatively while 36 per cent had a neutral opinion about the change.

Ignatieff's ascension garnered more positive than negative reviews in every region of the country, particularly Ontario and Quebec where a majority cheered the change.

Among Liberal supporters, 69 per cent of respondents had a positive impression of the switch in leaders.

I found this particularly interesting:

``The change in Liberal leadership was favourably received in virtually all quarters but Liberals in particular are most positive about Mr. Ignatieff's new role,'' said Harris-Decima's senior vice-president, Jeff Walker.

``While the numbers suggest some resistance to how Mr. Ignatieff was installed, much of this resistance is among Conservatives, with NDP,Green and Bloc voters being relatively content with the selection process.''

In other words, partisan anti-Liberals unlikely to vote for us anyway. I won't take much from these numbers, except that Canadians are more interested in what our leader will do to tackle the issues they care about than in how our leader is being selected.

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Ignore the esablishment and the media, listen to Canadians

Remember back, during the lead-up to Gulf War II and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when Canada was trying to decide whether or not to participate in the U.S. ‘coalition of the willing’?

The drumbeat to go to war was blaring strong. Then opposition leader Stephen Harper led the way. And he was backed whole-heartedly and full-throatedly by the Canadian media establishment. All over the airwaves, and all over the newspaper editorial pages, we were told we had to go to war, we had no choice, and we had to get those weapons of mass destruction, yada yada. There was hardly a dissenting voice in the establishment chorus.

Judging by the media coverage, you’d have thought the whole nation was clamoring for vengeance. And the media was certainly shocked when Prime Minister Jean Chretien made one of the best decisions of his career, and decided to keep Canada out of Iraq.

The media brayed and Stephen Harper went on Fox News to make excuses for Canadians. And Canadians? We applauded a leader that had listened to us, and not the editorial writers and intelligentsia. Chretien knew that despite what the media wanted, Canadians wanted no part of this war. I was never more proud of Chretien than I was then, and I was far from alone.

That lesson of listening to the people, and not the media establishment, is an important one. And it’s one we should remember as we gear-up for a highly politicized debate on the future of the Afghan mission, and the inevitable stay the course, don’t cut and run rhetoric that is sure to follow.

Remember where Canadians actually are on these issues. While polling is an inexact science, these numbers Kady O’Malley pulled-out from an Ipsos-Reid survey on the Manley report should be noted:

On Canada's mission to Afghanistan, in 2009 when our military mission is supposed to finish, which of the following would you be most likely to support? The government should either...

Bring all of our troops home: 37%

Extend our current role and mission as required: 14%

Keep troops there but have them do something like train Afghani soldiers or police officers: 45%

Don't know/Refused: 4%

As you can see, 45 per cent support the Liberal position. A position that has been steady and unwavering since Dion became leader, BTW, despite the Conservative and pundit spin. Just 14 per cent favour an open-ended combat mission, the Conservative position.

As the Conservative and media spin machine gears-up, just remember that two-thirds of Canadians don’t support the recommendations of the Manley report. They're the ones we should be listening to, not the media or Stephen Harper.

Canadians are proud of our military members, and the important work they've done. But they also believe we've done our duty, and it's time for another country to step up to the plate. They're willing to accept a training/rebuilding role, but otherwise they say bring them home.

We’re on firmer ground here then many seem to think. Let's not forget that. I wouldn't want to fight an election on this one if I was Stephen Harper.

UPDATE: With similar thoughts are Jason Cherniak and Warren Kinsella. Warren outlines the possible Liberal election pitch well:

“Hi, I’m Stéphane, and I think we have more than done our bit in Afghanistan, and we think it’s time for other countries to step up to the front line, and if you elect me, we will push for that. But if you want to be over there forever, with no end date, by all means vote for the other guy. Oh, and the economy. The other guys have no economic plan for the tough times ahead, none at all, and we do,” etc

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15 per cent of Con supporters don’t want a Con majority

Since everyone on the blogsphere is having fun with numbers today, I didn’t want to be left out. Accordingly, I’m going to take my shot at having some fun playing with, slicing, and dicing poll numbers to draw likely questionable conclusions.

There’s a new poll from Ipsos. It tells us that 58 per cent of Canadians want a majority government. And, of those that support a majority government 58 per cent want a Harper Majority government. Therefore, we can conclude 34 per cent of Canadians overall want a Conservative majority. With me so far?

Now, in that same poll, Ipsos polled the Conservatives at 40 per cent. A dubious number, but let’s go with it for pseudo-scientific purposes. According to Ipsos 40 per cent of Canadians support the Conservatives, but only 34 per cent support a Conservative majority. So, a six per cent gap between the two numbers.

Therefore, we can conclude that 15 per cent of Conservative supporters don’t trust Stephen Harper with a majority government.

And thus ends today’s session of fun with numbers.

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Tory’s ship is sinking: Will 'leadership' get thrown overboard?

The new polling numbers on the Ontario provincial election released over the weekend by Ipsos Reid surely have to be giving Conservatives pause, and causing John Tory to ask what ‘matters’ more: leadership, or polling numbers.

Because these polling numbers aren’t good. Unless you’re a Liberal, that is. Looks like Dalton is the debate winner after all. The latest numbers show the Liberals (43) opening-up a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (33), with the NDP treading-water at 17 and the Greens continually unchanged at 6.

For all the Conservative bluster, the numbers show the Liberals down just three points from the 46 they achieved in Election 2003, while if the vote were held today John Tory would have done two points WORSE than Ernie Eves, who had all that Mike Harris baggage to deal with. Ouch.

Here’s the chart:

Ipsos indicates the landscape is hardening, with people becoming more firmly decided in their voting choice. Interesting also though is the motivation of voters to get out and vote, always key for electoral success. Conservative voters are the most motivated at 74 per cent, followed by NDPers at 70 per cent and Liberals at 68 per cent.

Even factoring in those figured though, Ipsos still projects a potential Liberal majority, with Libs 42 per cent to Cons 35 and NDP 17. So, get out the vote will be essential if the Liberals want to get a majority.

On the issues front, the number one issue dogging Tory, according to Ipsos, and, well, everybody paying even a little attention, is faith-based schooling:

While at the beginning of the campaign 35% of Ontarians either ‘strongly’ (14%) or ‘somewhat’ (21%) supported the Progressive Conservative plan to extend funding to faith-based schools throughout Ontario, just three in ten (30%) Ontarians currently either ‘strongly’ (13%) or ‘somewhat support’ (17%) this idea. What is profound is the intensity with which Ontarians overwhelmingly oppose (68%) this plan, with a majority (51%) indicating that they ‘strongly oppose’ and two in ten (17%) saying that they ‘somewhat oppose’ the Ontario Government in extending full funding to faith-based schools and others of a similar nature.

If there’s any solace for John Tory it’s his personal numbers. On the Best Premier front he’s still neck and neck with Dalton McGuinty, with Dalton at 33 per cent and John at 32 per cent.


So, perhaps people do think leadership matters. It’s the rest of the ‘John Tory Team’ that Ontarians have a problem with. And, one wonders how strong Tory’s leadership numbers will stay if he flip-flops and breaks his promise on the faith-based schooling issue, forsaking ‘leadership’ for political opportunism. Perhaps that’s why, as Jason speculates, he was pushing supporters to vote last week.

Just a week and a half to go to e-day. Makes me a bit sad I’ll be in Vegas and will miss all the excitement. But only a little bit.

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New poll: For entertainment purposes only

The folks at Ipsos Reid have another poll out today on federal voting intentions. Basically, the Cons and Libs remain in a statistical tie.

Not a surprising insight there. Actually the Cons dropped 3 points from their last survey while the Libs remained steady, but with a margin of error of 3 who can say. Since there’s little change though, in lieu of much fresh analysis here’s a link to what I said last time.

And here’s a pretty chart:

The margins of error for the regional numbers are so wild (from 5 in Ontario to 11.7 in Atlantic Canada) that there’s little meaningful analysis to be drawn from any of the changes. Being a biased Liberal though I’ll take pleasure in the Ontario and Atlantic numbers, choose to take optimism in the Quebec numbers, and write off the B.C. swing to the MOE.

It’s such a nice chart though, so for entertainment purposes only:

Also entertaining and slightly more interesting, if not any more meaningful, are the age and gender breakdowns. Unfortunately no pretty charts here, so we can’t look at any trends over time, which would be interesting. Are the Cons turning off even more women? Are Canada’s men turning away from the not so macho Dion? Enquiring minds want to know…

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (27%) by a 12-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (15%), while the Bloc (men, 9%; women, 10%) and Green Party (men, 8%; women, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (36%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (37%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (28%). The Liberals also enjoy greater support among those 55 years and older (36%) than among Canadians 18 to 34 years of age (28%). The NDP draws similar levels of support from those 18 to 34 years of age (15%), 35 to 54 years of age (17%) and those 55 years and older (15%). Support for both the Bloc Quebecois and Green Party skews younger, with 13 percent of those18 to 34 years of age supporting the Bloc and 15 percent supporting the Green Party compared to six percent among those 55 years and older supporting the Bloc and seven percent supporting the Green Party.

When I posted on another Ipsos poll on May 14 I also mentioned these gender and age breakdowns. Where both stats are in the releases I’ve included the change, if any below, again for entertainment purposes only.

Support from Men
Cons: 39 (+5)
Liberals: Liberals (-4)
NDP: 15 (-1)
BQ: 9 (+2)
Green: 8 (-1)

Support from Women
Liberals: 34 (-)
Cons: 29: (-)
NDP: 18 (+1)
BQ: 10 (+1)
Greens: 9 (-1)

Those 55 and over
Cons: 35 (-5)
Liberals: 36 (+5)

Those 18-34
Liberals: 28 (+1)
Cons: 28 (+4)
NDP: 15 (-7)
BQ: 13 (+2)
Greens: 15 (+1)

So, not sure to take from that comparison. Would seem though that guys thought it was a good few weeks for the Cons, while women weren’t impressed with anyone. The Cons took a hit with seniors and the Libs capitalized (income trusts perhaps, I think we need to more heavily court seniors) while something happened between the NDP and the kids while I wasn’t looking.

Till next time…

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Another day, another poll, another tie

This time it’s Ipsos out with new polling numbers this morning, although the numbers are pretty much the same as all the polls have been lately: Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat.

Conducted May 10 with a 3.1& +/- margin of error, Ipsos has the horse race percentage numbers as Liberals 32, Conservatives 31, NDP 17, Greens 9, BQ 8, Undecided 7. Here’s a pretty chart from Ipsos to illustrate it:

They also publish regional numbers which, while interesting, should always be taken with a grain of salt. I’m in B.C. this week (hence all this time for blogging), so I’m pleased to see the Liberals 5 points up on the Conservatives here, although the NDP has surged into the lead (NDP 30, Libs 29, Cons 24, Greens 16). The Cons dipped in Alberta but still have a huge lead, Ontario was little changed, the Cons gained a bit a Liberal expense in Quebec, and in the Atlantic the Cons and Greens lost to the Libs and NDP.

Still, given the small sample sizes and wild swings, I don’t put much stock into these regional numbers. Still, here’s another pretty chart from Ipsos to illustrate it:

Ipsos concludes the “evaporation of support” for the Conservatives is the reason why the Liberals are statistically ahead in the polls. Given the breakdowns though I’d wager it would be another Conservative minority if an election were held today, the Cons can afford to bleed plenty if support in Alberta before it starts costing them seats, did rural/interior B.C.

Interestingly Ipsos notes the Cons have been losing support everywhere except Quebec, while this poll the Libs declined a tad everywhere except Alberta (and Atlantic Canada), and the NDP gained everywhere but the prairies. Somewhat Bizarro-World-ish, no?

And here’s some fun age and gender breakdowns:

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (34%) over the Liberals (31%) by a 3-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (18%) than among men (16%), while the Bloc (women, 9%; men, 7%) and Green Party (women, 10%; men, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (41%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (24%). The Liberals enjoy greater support among Canadians 35 to 54 years old (36%) than among either those 18 to 34 years (27%) or those 55 years and older (31%). Support for the NDP (22%), Green Party (14%) and Bloc Quebecois (11%) each depend more heavily on respondents 18 to 34 years of age than among older respondents.

Will be interesting to see how the Cons disastrous “Accountability week” and Duceppe’s 24-hour leadership bid impacts the next round of polling numbers.

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Questioning the pundit establishment narrative

Polls are dumb...However, I'll mention this latest one from Ipsos just to raise a point.

Ipsos, you may recall, had the post-budget poll that had it Cons 40%, Libs 29%, causing much Conservative gloating and Liberal nervous nellying. As was warned at the time however, taking a poll the day after a budget is dumb, and misleading. With the dust having settled, Ipsos how has it at Cons 36%, Liberals 31%. In other words, it's back to a horse race, as it has been all along.

But, more interestingly, take a look at this Ipsos chart, which quite usefully includes their historical polling numbers right back to the last election:


Take a look at the change between Election 2006 and today, some 14 to 15 months later: Cons unchanged, Liberals up one, NDP down two, Greens up four, Bloc down three.

Yes, some 14 months after the last election the Cons are exactly where they started, and the Liberals are one only point better.

Now, consider what has happened over the past 14 months.

For the Liberals, after a dispiriting election loss, Paul Martin resigned as Liberal leader. Bill Graham tried to hold down the fort in the HoC while the leaderless Liberals launched a marathon leadership race. Finally, four months ago Stephane Dion took the helm, finally allowing the party to turn from internal matters to holding the Cons accountable.

For the Conservatives, their re-election campaign began 14 months ago, with every move carefully choreographed by Doug Finley and the PMO. Two budgets have unloaded billions more in taxpayer dollars than the Liberals ever dreamed of. They've cut the GST and tried to buy off parents with taxable "child care" cheques. They've staged countless taxpayer funded photo-ops. A chicken in every pot, with a side of mashed potatoes and a biscut.

And, after all that, where are we? Cons unchanged, Liberals up one.

The media narrative

Despite all that, the focus in the media and among the punditry has been on the Liberal Party's poor performance in the polls under Dion. And I have certainly been among those raising issues because while as we can see things are far from lost, treading water is not acceptable and I think we need to do some tweaking to our strategy if we're going to start building more support.

But there's a BIG question that seems to be going completely un-discussed. It's not even mentioned. But I think it's far more relevant. Why, after 14 months as Prime Minister -- 14 months of patronage, pork barrel politics and shoveling billions of taxpayer dollars off the back of a truck – why, as these numbers show, has Steve Harper utterly, spectacularly failed to build Conservative support even a little bit?

UPDATE: For some reason, comments were ticked off. Apologies, it's now ticked on.

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