Saturday, October 20, 2007

15 per cent of Con supporters don’t want a Con majority

Since everyone on the blogsphere is having fun with numbers today, I didn’t want to be left out. Accordingly, I’m going to take my shot at having some fun playing with, slicing, and dicing poll numbers to draw likely questionable conclusions.

There’s a new poll from Ipsos. It tells us that 58 per cent of Canadians want a majority government. And, of those that support a majority government 58 per cent want a Harper Majority government. Therefore, we can conclude 34 per cent of Canadians overall want a Conservative majority. With me so far?

Now, in that same poll, Ipsos polled the Conservatives at 40 per cent. A dubious number, but let’s go with it for pseudo-scientific purposes. According to Ipsos 40 per cent of Canadians support the Conservatives, but only 34 per cent support a Conservative majority. So, a six per cent gap between the two numbers.

Therefore, we can conclude that 15 per cent of Conservative supporters don’t trust Stephen Harper with a majority government.

And thus ends today’s session of fun with numbers.

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ottlib said...

LOL Jeff.

Who was it that said: There are lies, damned lies and statistics?

Robert said...

Ooooo... I sense a witchhunt starting... Steve's going to find that 15%. ;-)

Jason Hickman said...

And, of those that support a majority government 58 per cent want a Harper Majority government.

Well, no, at least that's not how I read it. They didn't just ask those who said "I want a majority" what flavour it should be - they appear to have asked everyone who responded what sort of majority they'd prefer, if there was to be a majority.

But you know what? When the "big" number is 40-27, I can see why there'd be some urgency for the partisans on the wrong side of that hyphen to try to create some sort of fun, somewhere. Aside from that, and callig the 40% number "dubious", what else is there for those folks to do?

Ah, who cares. The polls are going to shift around all over the place between now & e-day anyway.

Jason Hickman said...

Ok, I re-read the Ipsos pdf file and I think I was wrong - according to the sample sizes, it looks like they only asked the "what flavour" question of the people who said they wanted a maj. My bad. Sorry 'bout that.

Looks like I'll have to simply content myself with just the 40-27 # after all. Well, that and the regional breakdowns. They're pretty good, too.