Monday, August 24, 2009

A poll for every season

If you're a Conservative, you'll highlight this poll, out today, to the exclusion of all others:

The Conservatives now command 39% in support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Liberals have slumped seven points.

If you're a Liberal, you'll highlight this poll, also out today, and note how it is in line with every other poll from every other pollster, with the exception of that other one today from Ipsos:
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.
That same Liberal might also mention that Decima polled 2,000 people from Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20, while Ipsos polled 1,001 people from Aug. 18-20 and is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

However, if you're smart you'll ignore the constant barrage of media polls as simple white noise and focus instead on what's important: building your organization, electing candidates, fundraising, and ensuring that you're ready to fight the next election, whenever that may be.

Because polls, as they say, are for dancing.

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Mike said...

How about that...I didn't even know about the other polls because the Ottawa Citizen had the Ipsos poll as the front page, top headline above the fold in today's edition.

Damn Liberal media!

Scott Tribe said...

You don't even have to be a conservative, Jeff. You apparently can also be an NDP'er in declaring the end of the Liberal Party using that single cherry-picked Ipsos poll.

A BCer in Toronto said...

Mike, in fairness to the Ottawa Petfiner, the Decima poll just came out this afternoon. Still, I wouldn't expect prominent placing tomorrow...


If I were to query my NDP friends on that Ipsos poll that some of them seem keen to highlight, I'd ask them this: with Michael supposedly cratering, in free-fall, etc., why is the NDP still only at 14%? Why did none of that supposedly bleeding LPC vote go to the NDP (I think Ipsos had them up 1)?

If I were an NDPer, I'd be a bit sheepish to highlight that poll, let alone play it up as bad for the LPC, because I wouldn't be keen on what it says about my party either: even when the Liberals drop, the NDP can't benefit.

But that's just me.

Harbles said...

"Because polls, as they say, are for dancing.

U Badd.

P.S. I hope I didn't break any etiquette by posting ur twit in an ITQ comment today. I forgot to link to the site. sorry.