Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Liberals dominant in the 905, 416

More regionals from the Decima poll released earlier today that give credence to the earlier comments of strong Liberal numbers on Ontario:

On a national basis, voter intentions give the Liberals 35 per cent, the Conservatives 31, the NDP 15, the Bloc nine and the Greens eight.

Across Ontario the Liberals lead the Conservatives 42-31. The NDP has 14 per cent and the Greens have 11 per cent. There is a 3.8 per cent margin of error in the provincial numbers.

In Toronto itself and around the curve of eastern curve of Lake Ontario, the Liberal lead is even more pronounced.

In the 416 area code in Toronto itself, the Liberals have the support of 52 per cent of respondents, while the Conservatives and NDP are tied at 19 per cent. The margin of error for this sample is eight per cent.

In the 905 region, the Liberal lead is 50-27, with the NDP at 11 per cent. The margin of error in this data is 7.8 per cent. Before the last election, the Tories led 44-32 here.
That 905 number is massive. It's a substantial reverse of Conservative fortunes, and is a sign a lot of Conservative incumbents should start polishing their resumes. The 905 was Mike Harris country. It's an area filled with the key demographics the Conservatives have been scientifically targeting for years, and making steady progress with. That 905 # is as stunning a rejection of the Harper Conservatives as is the Quebec polling we've seen, and it's as damaging to their re-election chances.

This was also interesting:
Walker said the data from the 416 area code suggests the NDP is tied with the Tories in support.

"With those splits it means the NDP has very little chance of winning more than one or two ridings in 416," he said. "The NDP has absolutely no incentive to go to an election right now."

That would be shocking as well. Would Jack be left standing alone in Danforth? Interesting times ahead, mes amis.

But back to the 905, with these numbers I'm reminded of the provincial results and this demographic data. These sorts of demographic shifts around urbanization and its impact on voting patters merit watching over time. Another area to watch is Kaploops and Kelowna in BC, and how urbanization impacts their voting patterns.

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3 comments:

Ian said...

I wouldn't trust those numbers too far. They polled 2000 people nationally, so those numbers are good to +/-2.2% MOE. However, once you get down to specific area codes it breaks down even further.

Then, within a single area code there can still be a huge variation in polling data. The NDP likely didn't have the numbers in an Edmonton poll to win any seats, but with a concentrated effort on key ridings we took one and improved another. I wouldn't say Jack's going to be alone by any stretch.

Finally, it's clearly Ignatieff who's afraid of an election. He likes talking tough, but can't seem to get over his obsession with voting Blue.

The Mound of Sound said...

Well they're not worth a shit here in the 250 and, outside the city limits of Victoria, they're acting like they're just fine with that. If you want to be the shadow conservative party of Toronto, I'll just take my leave.

A BCer in Toronto said...

Ian,

The MoE for the area code numbers is 8. Substantial, yes. But with a 33-point lead in the 416 and a 23-point lead in the 905, even with that MoE it seems fair to derive some trends, no?

And posting links to lame NDP propaganda is really kinda, well, lame. Besides, before posturing on elections, I'd advise waiting to see what decision they make on a confidence vote first. Right now, neither Ignatieff or Layton are saying they'll vote the government down.

MoS, shadow party of Toronto? If by Toronto you mean the Maritimes, Quebec, across Ontario, Manitoba, the Lower Mainland and Southern Van Isle (where we're all polling very well) than sure, the Toronto party. I know my Toronto includes Esquimalt, for sure. Parksville though, yes, will be a tougher nut to crack.