Thursday, June 11, 2009

Ekos: Lib35, Con30, NDP 15, Grn10, BQ9

It seems like almost ever day lately has brought a new poll. This morning its Ekos reporting continued incremental Liberal gains, and the first hints of how the Lisa Raitt saga could impact voting intentions.

First, the numbers:

On Raitt:

As EKOS was conducting the current poll, the company noticed a rise in Liberal support in the last three days of polling, with the Liberals taking an eight-point advantage. The timing coincides with the release of audiotapes on which Natural Resource Minister Lisa Raitt is overheard calling the isotope crisis "sexy."

While those polled might have been swayed by the Conservative scandal, Graves said the issue likely won't stick by the time voters go to the polls. It has given the Liberals a short-term boost, but that might not translate into long-term gains.

"It probably won't be a lasting ballot-booth issue," he said.
I agree in part, at least outside of Halton where I'm pretty sure it will be an issue. But the entire Raitt affair, from the binder and the tape to the much delayed apology to the wider and more important handing of the isotope file and the Chalk River situation, does speak to the wider incompetence of this Conservative government, and THAT will be a ballot-box issue. It's a stark example, just one of many, of how the Harper Reformatories just don't get it.

Moving on, here's some regionals:
Much of the Liberals' support has come from Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, which accounts for 106 of 308 federal seats, the Liberals have taken a nearly 11-point lead, gathering 42.6 per cent of support compared to 31.8 per cent for the Conservatives.

In Quebec, Liberals are 20 points ahead, snagging 33.6 per cent of support, compared to the Conservatives, with 13.2 per cent. The Bloc leads the province, with 36.5 per cent.

Hopefully we'll see numbers for the rest of the country soon, but the numbers in Ontario bode well for the Liberals and make it challenging for the Conservatives to maintain government. There simply aren't enough seats for them to make up in the rest of the country they don't already hold. These Ekos numbers by and large confirm the trends that most other polls have been showing in these provinces, and nationally.

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1 comment:

Barcs said...

continued liberal gains?? ... no

(Doesn't have the 35-30 ekos poll, but does have the 34-30 Strageic poll)

A continued liberal lead over the tories of 3-4% over the last 3 months with only a small week of tightening in the middle. yes.

A good poll for the liberals to be sure to support their lead. But I wish that the media would straighten out their headlines to be less partisan