The demographics around the anti-prorogation anger

In an interview with Kathleen Petty yesterday on CBC Radio's The House, pollster Frank Graves of Ekos Research made some interesting points about what his research is showing him about the growing discontent with the Stephen Harper Conservatives around the decision to shutter parliament for two months. The short of it: it's not just the usual suspects that are annoyed, and it goes deeper that the prorogation.

Here's a transcript. Emphasis is mine:

KATHLEEN PETTY (HOST):
Well apparently, Michael Ignatieff is not alone; In a national poll released by the firm EKOS, two thirds of respondents didn't think the move was crazy, necessarily, but they did know the Prime Minister shut down Parliament, and of those, nearly 60 percent were opposed to the prorogation. Frank Graves is the president of EKOS; he joins me in the studio. Good morning, welcome to "The House."

FRANK GRAVES (PRESIDENT, EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES):
Good to be here.

PETTY:
So, is it the number or is it the demographic behind that number that really tells the story, here?

GRAVES:
Well, I think they're both interesting, but perhaps a more interesting thing, which hasn't really been discussed at this point, is the demographic. There's another very interesting feature to the demographic, but I think the most striking one is the... how much this issue has caught the attention of the most educated portions of the electorate and the "baby boom" cohort, which as we know, has been an extremely influential and large portion of the electorate, ones that all show up to vote, ones who have an inordinate level of influence. You could argue that this particular group has exerted almost a stranglehold over the political system for a long time. This group has been pretty solidly onside with Mr. Harper for some time, now. They came onside in the last election and were one of the keys to this success which almost propelled him to a majority victory. So, the fact that they're now having second thoughts about this particular issue... I think this particular issue has become a bit of lightning rod which is capturing a broader sense of disaffection on a number of other issues which have occurred previous to it, but it is something that probably signals greater importance as time goes on, or it could potentially do that.

PETTY:
It also speaks to whether it can be sustained, it seems to me. Because if you're talking about people who are influential and who are opinion leaders, then the ability to sustain a dissatisfaction or unhappiness with prorogation... it seems to me that the likelihood is higher in that case.

GRAVES:
Absolutely, and I think just to add further credibility to that thesis, it's my sense that we've seen a bit of a turnaround in some of the elite intelligentsia coverage of Mr. Harper, which has moved from this very fawning applause that we saw concurrent with the NAC performance - which also, coincidentally, coincided with him moving into majority territory, he was around 42 points, then. Today, he's around 33 points, but it does seem that there's now... We have front page editorials from the Globe and Mail, we have him pilloried by The Economist -

PETTY:
And we've got a trend, and that's the other interesting part. You talk about the NAC performance, but as you take a look at your polling over a period of time, the gap between the Tories and the Liberals used to be wide.

GRAVES:
Almost insurmountable; You had a daunting 15-point lead which was understating the Conservative edge, because the Conservatives have a much more committed voter base, so in fact, when they were running 41-42 points, our calculations are that they would have produced a very decisive majority in the neighbourhood of 180 seats at that point. Today, these numbers would suggest that they're at least as close, probably... no they are closer to actually sitting on the wrong side of the House than they are to that goal of forming a majority.

PETTY:
But these numbers aren't just because of prorogation; it's a cumulative effect to which prorogation has sort of added an extra push, in your view.

GRAVES:
Yeah, but it seems to me that now, this latest issue shouldn't be judged just in terms of, "are people really that upset about prorogation?", or has it become something which captures a broader critical mass of concerns about -

PETTY:
Emblematic.

GRAVES:
Yes, and you're quite right. The decline that we'd seen in sort of... "propeller head" terminology was a monotonic progressive straight-line decline. It was up here or... it wasn't oscillating up and down, it was on a very well- behaved statistical pattern. It seemed to have stopped when Parliament recessed, and this newest episode... remember, over the Christmas period, there's really. .. nothing else happened that would explain why we saw a further three-point drop, which in our samples, which are very large, was highly statistically and substantially significant. So, the only thing that plausibly explains it, and when you link it back as well to concerns about this and look where the attrition occurred, it was this same group that we were talking about before, the "boomers", the educated, and so forth, who seemed to have had some serious second thoughts. That may not be permanent, but it's something which is perhaps more important than the usual sort of three-point fluctuations that you might see on a day-to-day basis.

PETTY:
Okay, well you've given us stuff to watch for, and we will watch for it. Frank, thanks very much.

GRAVES:
Okay, my pleasure.

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Look beyond the polls

Two polls out this morning that will no doubt give some comfort to the anti-perogie forces, but both should be taken with a grain of salt and should only be considered a conformation that while there is opportunity around the Conservative decision to shut down parliament and take a two-month vacation, converting on that opportunity is both challenging and uncertain.

The first poll is from Angus Reid and the Toronto Star and surveyed specifically on the decision to prorogue parliament, and it found a majority (53 per cent) opposed the decision, either strongly or moderately. Just 19 per cent agreed with the decision, while 28 per cent were unsure. Support was highest in Manitoba/Saskatchewan at 31 per cent, and opposition was highest in Atlantic Canada at 61 per cent and Ontario at 59 per cent. Along party lines, naturally opposition supporters were opposed, but so were 35 per cent of Conservative supporters (46 per cent of them agreed).

Asked if they believed the government that the decision to prorogue was just about gearing-up for the next stage of the economic plan, or the opposition that it was about hiding from the Afghan detainee abuse scandal, 23 per cent believed the government, 38 per cent sided with the opposition, and 39 per cent didn’t know who to believe. The party line numbers are predictable.

So, Angus Reid tells us Canadians disagree with the decision to prorogue (and that most aren't really paying that close attention either). That’s all well and good, but in isolation it means little. The real question is, what impact, if any, will this disagreement have on their voting intention? Just because I disagree with something doesn’t mean it will change my vote.

That’s where the latest poll from Ekos and the CBC comes in to play. Here’s the latest Ekos numbers on voter intention:

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8)
Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1)
NDP: 16.0 (-1.0)
Green: 13.4 (+2.2)
Bloc Quebecois*: 9.8 (+0.6)
Undecided: 14.7

So, an outside the margin decline for the Conservatives, a small within the margin gain for the Liberals, a slight drop for the NDP and an unusual increase for the Greens. What does it all mean? Who knows for sure, but here’s my take:

Since not much else has been happening lately, it’s safe to say based on the Conservative dip that the prorogue story is putting a crimp in their numbers. And it’s also safe to say the opposition parties have yet to benefit much at all from the public disapproval of the Conservative decision.

These numbers largely echo what I’ve been saying since this began: even if people are annoyed at the Conservatives, the Liberals haven’t done the necessary spadework to be able to convert that dissatisfaction into support. We’re still languishing below 30 per cent, and only got a small bump. That’s because while there is anger with the Conservatives, they’re not enamored enough with the alternatives to make the jump. If the Liberals were a more credible alternative, you’d see a larger Conservative decline and a higher Liberal increase. But just because someone dislikes one choice doesn't mean they automatically like another.

Instead, you see a relatively small but still significant Conservative decrease, as those that are really dissatisfied park their support temporarily with the Greens, a traditional holding-basin for the temporarily annoyed, or with the undecided.

If the opposition parties, in particular the Liberals, don’t do anything to begin converting those dissatisfied former Conservative supporters into Liberal supporters by giving them a reason not just to be mad at the Conservatives but to support the Liberals, then over the next few weeks and months that support will slowly trickle back into the Conservative support column, and we’ll be back where we started.

That has been the clear pattern for several years now. They know what they need to do to break it. If they will or not remains to be seen.

UPDATE: For more on the polls see Scott and Scott, as well as Impolitical.

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Going behind the horserace numbers

We had two polls out last week, one from Angus Reid and one from Ekos, both of which showed the Liberals and Conservatives neck-in-neck as we go into the fall session of parliament and a possible election campaign.

I don’t put much import in the polls, other than affirming that Ipsos poll looks to be the 19th time out of 20, that anything is still possible and that, as always, the campaign will be determinative. I would say it’s a positive for the Liberals to be tied coming out of a summer when the opposition always has a hard time attracting national attention, particularly when the government has billions of dollars in stimulus funding to announce, and re-announce. It will be interesting to see where the numbers go now that people are paying attention once again.

Rather than focus totally on national horse race numbers though, I wanted to dive a little deeper and look at some of the other numbers in the two polls that I found interesting.

Regional highlights

When I look at regional numbers, I’m usually most interested in Ontario, Quebec and BC. The first two for strategic reasons, the latter personal.

Ekos has the Liberals restoring a decent lead in Ontario, at LPC 40.4, CPC 33.1, NDP 15.6. The Angus Reid numbers have it a bit tighter, at LPC 40, CPC 37, NDP 14. The Liberals need to be at 40 per cent or higher in Ontario to be competitive nationally. The NDP number is also important, because higher NDP numbers will create favourable vote splits for the Conservatives. The NDP have shown some weakness in Ontario lately, but the Liberals would like to see more daylight between them and the Conservatives.

Ekos also provides some interesting metro numbers, although with slightly higher margins of errors. In Toronto, Ekos has it Liberals 44.8, CPC 35.4, NDP 11.8, GPC 8.1 with a 6.6 MOE. The CPC shows strong strength in the GTA here but what surprised me was the low number for the NDP. That could make things interesting for a few of their incumbents.

In Quebec. Angus Reid has it BQ 35, LPC 31, CPC 18, NDP 10. Ekos calls it BQ 32.3, LPC 30.9, CPC 19.4, NDP 9.8. Again, two sets of similar numbers. Continued CPC weakness in Quebec will cost them seats they’ll need to make up elsewhere just to tread water. The BQ and the Liberals will gain, probably the BQ a little more. The NDP numbers are just above the Green Party in Quebec; if I was Thomas Mulcair I’d be a tad concerned.

Ekos puts Montreal at LPC 32.7, BQ 32.3. CPC 18.2, NDP 9.1 with a 6.5 MOE.

Finally, out in BC, Ekos has it CPC 35.3, NDP 25.5, LPC 24.9, GPC 14.3. At Angus Reid, its CPC 34, NDP 33, LPC 24, GPC 9. There’s been a lot of fluidity in the BC numbers of late. I don’t see the tightness of the Angus Reid number, but I also don’t see the high Green numbers that Ekos has holding. The Greens polled strongly in BC during the last campaign too, but came back down by e-day.

The thing to remember about BC is that the Conservatives largely run the table in rural BC, and compete just with the NDP in coastal BC and a few interior and Island ridings. So large Conservative rural pluralities can create a mini-Alberta effect in the provincial numbers. Liberal strength is largely concentrated in the Lower Mainland and South Island. In Vancouver, Ekos puts it at LPC 32.4, CPC 30.7, NDP 26.5, GPC 10.4 (MOE 10.5). While there’s a few strong CPC ridings in that mix, those numbers are still a little tighter than I’d like.

Doing the demographics

But enough of horserace numbers. What really interests me is when the pollsters make demographic data available. For example, support by gender.

The gender breakdowns from Ekos offer some interesting insights. Amongst men, its CPC 35.8 to LPC 33.1. That’s tighter than I recall it being for awhile, usually the CPC leads strongly with men. Among women, its LPC 32.2 to CPC 29.5. The Liberals have traditionally done very well with female voters; they lost that edge last election to the Conservatives and it was a big factor in the poor results. We look to be getting women back, and that’s a very positive sign. But we need to continue to build our support there with targeted policies and messaging to be competitive for government in the next election.

This is borne out by the Ontario numbers. Here, they show the seven point Liberal lead in Ontario is largely thanks to female voters, who preferred the Liberals 41.1 to 27.9 for the Conservatives. The Liberal lead with men in Ontario is much tighter, 39.8 to 37.6.

Nationally, the older you are the more likely you are to vote Conservative. The Liberals hold the advantage up to age 44, then the Conservatives the rest of the way. Interestingly, while the Conservatives still lead, as people leave middle-age for their golden years, there’s an uptick in Liberal support, which indicates targeting seniors would be advisable.

On the education front, don’t think I’m making any judgement here but the more education you have, according to Ekos you’re more likely to vote Liberal. Those with university degrees are LPC 38.9 to CPC 30.2, but those with high school or college favour the CPC by five to six points.

Beyond the surface

Some of the additional questions that Angus Reid asked help to illustrate a point I like to often make, and that’s that numbers, on the surface, can be deceiving.

For example, Angus Reid reports that 41% oppose toppling the government and 16% moderately oppose it, with just 14% strongly supporting it and 18% moderately supporting it. Regionally, opposition is strongest in Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 61% strongly opposed, and support strongest in Atlantic Canada at 25% strongly support.

So, we can take from those numbers that an election is a bad idea and the perceived culprit will be smacked for it, right?

Well, maybe not.

When asked the change question (it’s time for a new party in government, or it’s not change the CPC should stay), 42% said it was time for change while 34% wanted the CPC to stay. Of course, those 42% will disagree on what the change should be, naturally.

Still, the contradiction between the opposition to election and desire for change is there. What does it mean? I’d argue it means that, while Canadians aren’t keen on the idea of election, that’s not surprising because they never are. But they’ll still go and vote, they’re looking for change, and there is unlikely to be any kind of election backlash, no matter how hard the spinmiesters try.

Anyway, while interesting when a new dynamic unfolding now these polls mean nothing. They’re merely the starting-point, not the destination.

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Ekos: Lib35, Con30, NDP 15, Grn10, BQ9

It seems like almost ever day lately has brought a new poll. This morning its Ekos reporting continued incremental Liberal gains, and the first hints of how the Lisa Raitt saga could impact voting intentions.

First, the numbers:


On Raitt:

As EKOS was conducting the current poll, the company noticed a rise in Liberal support in the last three days of polling, with the Liberals taking an eight-point advantage. The timing coincides with the release of audiotapes on which Natural Resource Minister Lisa Raitt is overheard calling the isotope crisis "sexy."

While those polled might have been swayed by the Conservative scandal, Graves said the issue likely won't stick by the time voters go to the polls. It has given the Liberals a short-term boost, but that might not translate into long-term gains.

"It probably won't be a lasting ballot-booth issue," he said.

I agree in part, at least outside of Halton where I'm pretty sure it will be an issue. But the entire Raitt affair, from the binder and the tape to the much delayed apology to the wider and more important handing of the isotope file and the Chalk River situation, does speak to the wider incompetence of this Conservative government, and THAT will be a ballot-box issue. It's a stark example, just one of many, of how the Harper Reformatories just don't get it.

Moving on, here's some regionals:

Much of the Liberals' support has come from Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, which accounts for 106 of 308 federal seats, the Liberals have taken a nearly 11-point lead, gathering 42.6 per cent of support compared to 31.8 per cent for the Conservatives.

In Quebec, Liberals are 20 points ahead, snagging 33.6 per cent of support, compared to the Conservatives, with 13.2 per cent. The Bloc leads the province, with 36.5 per cent.

Hopefully we'll see numbers for the rest of the country soon, but the numbers in Ontario bode well for the Liberals and make it challenging for the Conservatives to maintain government. There simply aren't enough seats for them to make up in the rest of the country they don't already hold. These Ekos numbers by and large confirm the trends that most other polls have been showing in these provinces, and nationally.

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Describe Stephen Harper? Secretive, arrogant, out of touch

A few polls out today that others will I'm sure offer plenty of analysis of, one from Ekos and one from Angus Reid. Both show tight races, but solid Liberal prospects.

The Angus Reid folks have posted a PDF breakdown with lots of interesting stuff, and I wanted to share a few thoughts on.

First, they offer some interesting insight on the impact of the Conservative ads:

After disclosing their voting intention, respondents to this survey were divided into three groups. The first group observed one of the television ads that the Conservative Party has launched targeting Ignatieff, the second group was shown the same ad and the response that Ignatieff posted on YouTube, and the third group was not exposed to any ads or videos.

The momentum score for Harper among respondents who saw the ad is -40 (10% improved, 50% worsened), and the prime minister posts similar numbers among those who saw the ad and the video (9% improved, 52% worsened) and those who were not exposed directly to either the ad or the video (7% improved, 49% worsened).

The momentum score for Ignatieff among respondents who saw the ad is -18 (24% improved, 42% worsened). However, the opposition leader bridges the gap with those who also saw his YouTube video (29% improved, 31% worsened) and is even among those who did not see the ad or the video (28% improved, 28% worsened).

As I've said before, I'm not ready to pass judgment on the effectiveness, or lack thereof, of the Conservative ads yet. But there is one message I take from these results: The Liberal Party needs to get its response in front of more people than those who watch YouTube.



On another note, I found this amusing:

Respondents were also asked to select up to six words (out of a list of 17 traits and characteristics) that may be used to describe Canada's federal political leaders.

The words that were associated with Harper the most are secretive (54%), arrogant (53%), out of touch (38%), uncaring (37%), intelligent (35%), boring (34%) and dishonest (also 34%).

Ignatieff comes across as intelligent (53%), arrogant (42%) and strong (31%), and a quarter of respondents also see him as open, secretive end efficient.

And who says pollsters don't have a sense of humour?

Remarkably, the five federal party leaders post exceptionally low marks on being exciting (from 3% for Harper to 13% for Layton), and at least one-in-five Canadians regard them all as boring (from 21% for Ignatieff to 34% for Harper).

Remarkably? Surely that's sarcasm, Angus...

Finally, interesting regionals. I like those Quebec numbers (ouch, Cons) but those Atlantic numbers aren't pleasing.

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