A poll out today from Harris-Decima contains more good news for Liberals, and shows the Conservatives at a low-point I don't recall seeing them at in some time:
A new poll suggests the federal Liberals are edging ahead of the Conservatives nationally on the strength of rising support among urban women and Quebecers.Frankly, that Conservative number seems very low to me, and I'd advise strong caution making too much of it. Were that number real, given the Conservative over-strength in Alberta and the traditional greater efficiency of the Liberal vote, it would be very bad for Harper. But I'd like to see how that breaks down regionally.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.
Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.
Support among survey respondents for both the Tories and New Democrats was down five points from the October election.
What is positive to take here is the two things the article highlights: women, and Quebec. Liberals can't win without women; we lost them in 2008 and they almost gave Harper his majority. Getting them back is crucial.
Also, this poll confirms the reporters of growing Liberal strength in Quebec. And my conversations with Quebec friends at the convention assure me these numbers are real. It's not entirely an anti-Harper vote either. There's a real desire, I'm told, to give Ignatieff a chance. Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers