Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Decima confirms growing Liberal strength

A poll out today from Harris-Decima contains more good news for Liberals, and shows the Conservatives at a low-point I don't recall seeing them at in some time:

A new poll suggests the federal Liberals are edging ahead of the Conservatives nationally on the strength of rising support among urban women and Quebecers.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.

Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

Support among survey respondents for both the Tories and New Democrats was down five points from the October election.
Frankly, that Conservative number seems very low to me, and I'd advise strong caution making too much of it. Were that number real, given the Conservative over-strength in Alberta and the traditional greater efficiency of the Liberal vote, it would be very bad for Harper. But I'd like to see how that breaks down regionally.

What is positive to take here is the two things the article highlights: women, and Quebec. Liberals can't win without women; we lost them in 2008 and they almost gave Harper his majority. Getting them back is crucial.

Also, this poll confirms the reporters of growing Liberal strength in Quebec. And my conversations with Quebec friends at the convention assure me these numbers are real. It's not entirely an anti-Harper vote either. There's a real desire, I'm told, to give Ignatieff a chance.

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8 comments:

Devin Johnston said...

I don't really understand why the article says that the NDP is down 5 points since the October election. The NDP got 17% in the election and is at 15% in this poll. Where I come from (Canada), we call that a difference of 2%, not 5%.

A BCer in Toronto said...

Could be referring to their own e-day polling, rather than actual e-day results. Pollsters don't generally compare back to actual results as the difference in methodologies would make a trend comparison meaningless. However, comparing where they polled the party at on e-day to where they poll them at now would be a more meaningful number from which to derive a change in support.

Zorpheous said...

I never get to excited about polling numbers, unless we are in election mode. Right now these polls could say the Liberals have 60% support, but it is completely meaningless unless we are in election mode, and we ain't.

Still, it is good for lemon juice and salting, if you get my drift.

Devin Johnston said...

Except that they explicitly state that they are comparing to the election results:

"The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey places Liberal support at 34 per cent nationally, a nine-point increase on the party's share of the popular vote in last October's federal election.

Conservative support in the poll stood at 29 per cent, with the NDP at 15, the Greens at 11 and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent."

Incidentally, they also got the Tory drop wrong: the poll shows the Conservatives down 7, not 5.

A BCer in Toronto said...

Well then that is indeed puzzling, Devin. I dunno.

Steve V said...

"but it is completely meaningless "

See EI debate, and Con backtracking, if you want to see how "meaningless" the polls are.

Devin Johnston said...

Yeah, I dunno either. It's probably not a huge deal, but it's a little frustrating to me as a New Dem because it plays into a media narrative in which the NDP is bleeding support to the Libs - something that is not strongly supported by the evidence. Well, c'est lat vie.

A BCer in Toronto said...

A revised story changes the #:

"The Tories are down eight points from the Oct. 14 election and the New Democrats are down three. "