The folks at Ipsos Reid have another poll out today on federal voting intentions. Basically, the Cons and Libs remain in a statistical tie.
Not a surprising insight there. Actually the Cons dropped 3 points from their last survey while the Libs remained steady, but with a margin of error of 3 who can say. Since there’s little change though, in lieu of much fresh analysis here’s a link to what I said last time.
And here’s a pretty chart:
The margins of error for the regional numbers are so wild (from 5 in
It’s such a nice chart though, so for entertainment purposes only:
Also entertaining and slightly more interesting, if not any more meaningful, are the age and gender breakdowns. Unfortunately no pretty charts here, so we can’t look at any trends over time, which would be interesting. Are the Cons turning off even more women? Are
By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (27%) by a 12-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (15%), while the Bloc (men, 9%; women, 10%) and Green Party (men, 8%; women, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.
By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (36%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (37%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (28%). The Liberals also enjoy greater support among those 55 years and older (36%) than among Canadians 18 to 34 years of age (28%). The NDP draws similar levels of support from those 18 to 34 years of age (15%), 35 to 54 years of age (17%) and those 55 years and older (15%). Support for both the Bloc Quebecois and Green Party skews younger, with 13 percent of those18 to 34 years of age supporting the Bloc and 15 percent supporting the Green Party compared to six percent among those 55 years and older supporting the Bloc and seven percent supporting the Green Party.
Support from Men
Cons: 39 (+5)
Liberals: Liberals (-4)
NDP: 15 (-1)
BQ: 9 (+2)
Green: 8 (-1)
Support from Women
Liberals: 34 (-)
Cons: 29: (-)
NDP: 18 (+1)
BQ: 10 (+1)
Greens: 9 (-1)
Those 55 and over
Cons: 35 (-5)
Liberals: 36 (+5)
Those 18-34
Liberals: 28 (+1)
Cons: 28 (+4)
NDP: 15 (-7)
BQ: 13 (+2)
Greens: 15 (+1)
So, not sure to take from that comparison. Would seem though that guys thought it was a good few weeks for the Cons, while women weren’t impressed with anyone. The Cons took a hit with seniors and the Libs capitalized (income trusts perhaps, I think we need to more heavily court seniors) while something happened between the NDP and the kids while I wasn’t looking.
Till next time… Recommend this Post on Progressive Bloggers
3 comments:
Ipsos regional numbers are questionable, but you have to love the Conservatives Alberta numbers. Clearly, the theory that Harper is alienating the base finds strong support in the paltry 74% in Alberta. The 63 point gap with the Liberals better give Harper pause, people are pissed.
Since that 11% is concentrated in Edmonton and pockets of Calgary Centre, 74% means that the Tories are at 90%+ in rural Alberta.
The other 10% was their original Reform base. :-)
I agree I don't think Harper is in much trouble in Alberta Steve. Even if he dropped 30 per cent (which he has in previous Ipsos polls, the regional swings are wild) he has such high pluralities he'd still carry the day. That isn't to say he hasn't lost support in Alberta. I think he has, just not enough. Or with his base, they're pissed but have nowhere to go till Reform II.
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