Stephen Harper is not a leader

Maybe he was just projecting with all those radio and tv ads, overcompensating just a little bit. Seems a likely conclusion to draw from the new Strategic Consel poll dissected at length in today’s Globe.

They go into all kinds of nitty-gritty but the headline really sums it all up: Harper failing to win over country, Poll puts Liberals, Tories in dead heat.

I’d like to welcome my friends at the Globe to the party, because I’ve been saying for some time that the poor Conservative numbers and their inability to grow their support even a smidgen from the last election, despite all the advantages of incumbency and billions in taxpayer dollars to bribe voters with, is a massive failure of leadership for Deceivin’ Steven. It’s something the MSM has largely ignored, they had the Cons “inching” to a majority for a year.

The top line numbers put the Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 17 and the Greens at 10.

Critics on the right will say yeah, but Harper is a lot more personally popular that Dion. There’s factors like incumbency that help drive that, but it’s an issue I’ve raised as well. Critics within the LPC will say imagine where the party would be in the polls if Dion were more popular. I think he’s working on it, but that’s valid too, we haven’t been able to capitalize on CPC weakness yet. I’d wager though the numbers would be similar with Iggy, Rae or Kennedy.

Let me submit this however: imagine where the CPC numbers would be if it wasn’t for Harper’s personal popularity? If Harper’s popularity figures were lower would the CPC be below 30 per cent, and behind the Liberals? Something intriguing to ponder, n’est pas?

Demographics

Also interesting are some of the demographic and issue numbers, by percentage.

In the 18-34 age group it’s L36/21, age 35-49 it’s L29/C33, and age 50+ it’s C38/L30. That’s interesting; given all the focus the CPC is giving to middle-aged families I’d expect them to be further ahead in that demo. I’d like to see more pushing on the income trust issue to target that Conservative support among seniors, I think it’s a bit soft and there’s ground to be made there.

Along gender lines, among men it’s C37/L27, and among women it’s L35/C26. That’s not surprising as is inline with the trend. Along wealth lines under $50k its tied 27/27, $50-$100k it’s tied also 31/31, and more than $100k the Libs lead 42/31.

Pollster Peter Donolo, whom it must be noted has strong Liberal ties as a former longtime communications director to PM Jean Chretien, notes the Conservatives are off their year-ago high of 37 per cent largely due to declining support from women, French-Canadians and voters earning $100k+.

He ties the drop in support from women and Francophones to Afghanistan, and the drop in support from $100k+ earners to the decision to tax income trusts and recent foreign takeovers. I found the Con drop in support from that last demographic astounding: from a whopping 49 per cent a year ago to just 31 per cent today. That’s astounding. Again, I say push the income trusts issue!

Issues

The poll puts the environment as the most important issue for Canadians, followed by health care and terrorism/Afghanistan. We’re already doing a lot on the environment front, I think we need to keep pushing on the Afghanistan front, clearly articulating our policy and not let a poll-scared Harper try to redefine himself on that front and wiggle out of his past bellicose rhetoric. And some attention and innovation on the health care front would be good as well, while also drawing more attention to CPC failures on the front, ie. the disappearing wait-times priority.

Region by region

In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals continue to hold a lead, with 41 per cent, versus 34 per cent for the Tories, a virtual replication of the month before. The NDP is up two points to 13.

Despite the strong Liberal number the urban/rural split will be important here, if the Liberal support is concentrated in the GTA the CPC will do better in seats than these numbers suggest.

In the West, the Tories have dropped four percentage points to 40 per cent, although they continue to lead the Liberals 40-25, with the NDP third at 24.

Again it’s hard to draw conclusions given the huge levels of support the CPC has in Alberta. B.C. will be a battleground, as likely will be the rest of the West save Wild Rose Country. Unless we can harness the Stemlach displeasure somehow.

In Quebec, the Tories continue to lag behind both the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals. The Bloc leads the pack with 40 per cent, while the Liberals are second with 25 per cent. The Conservatives are third with 16 per cent and the NDP fourth with 10 per cent, a jump of four points. The Tory figure is a drop of nine percentage points from the 2006 election.

Steve analyzes the Quebec numbers and I agree, positive news for the Liberals and reason for optimism for Dion. As Donolo said, Dion is becoming the second choice for Quebecers to the BQ. Doesn’t bode well for Harper’s French Kiss, although a sequel from Chantal would be premature.

But consider this figure too:

Among francophones, the Liberals lead the Tories by 21 per cent to 17 per cent.

One year ago, the Conservatives led the Liberals by 11 points.

Maybe Fortier should hang onto that Senate seat after all.

Go forward

I’ll save a discussion of the Afghanistan numbers for another post as this one has gotten long enough already. But clearly I think there’s a lot of positive here for the Liberals, if only in the fact that at least one media outlet has finally awoken to Harper’s massive failure of leadership and inability to grow his support.

While the Liberal support numbers are still unchanged, we are tied with the Cons and I see the seeds in place to pass them and take the lead. We need to keep the pressure on the Cons, don’t let them off the ropes. Stay united, and focus on our issues. The environment is the top issue named, we’ve got the right leader to take on that one. We’ve got the right position on Afghanistan, let’s talk it up and keep the heat on. Let’s get creative on health care.

And I’ll say it again, although I feel rather lonely here, but start talking-up income trusts and drawing attention to our sensible alternative policy on the matter, it’s a support winner. I really think it’s a sleeper election issue.

Lastly, one thing the poll pointed-out was a distaste for Harper’s combative style, epically among women, is a turnoff. I don’t know how you could get this across but Dion is definitely a Bizarro Harper in that respect, if there was any way we could highlight that contrast it may be helpful.

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