Do we want this coalition to succeed or not?

I want this coalition to succeed. I would like nothing more than to see the Harper Conservatives out of power yesterday. But we need to be realistic and reasoned in how we proceed. We don’t need to put our cards on the table six weeks before Parliament returns. And we must get the public on our side.

And we don’t have the public onside yet. Conservative partisans say it’s a coup. Liberal and NDP partisans say throw Harper out on his ass. The non-partisan majority are confused. They don’t understand the parliamentary system. They may or may not like Harper, but they know we just had an election and they wonder just what the heck all those idiots of all parties up in Ottawa are doing farting around during an economic crisis.

We need to make our case to the public. We need to do a little education to warm people up to the fact that, if the Harper government loses the confidence of the house, a majority-led progressive coalition is a perfectly legitimate option. We need to make clear that Haper has been playing political games when he should have been focusing on the economy.

Now, sure, we could just defeat the government in January, no matter what the public says, and petition the GG to turn the keys over to the coalition, no matter what the public opinion is. That would be constitutionally legitimate. But it would be a mistake that would well doom the coalition to failure. It would give the anti-democracy messaging of the Conservatives credence. And it may well precipitate an election we’d lose: while it shouldn’t technically be a consideration, when the GG has to decide coalition vs. election, don’t doubt for a second that public opinion may well play a role in her decision. If opinion is majorly anti-coalition, an election is more likely.

If we want this coalition to succeed, we need public support. And if we’re to get public support, the coalition can’t be seen as simply a naked and partisan power grab. The public will not accept that. They will not see the means as justifying the ends. Most Canadians aren’t partisans, they don’t share our strong feelings. They just want government to work and stay out of their way.

This needs to be about the economy. It needs to be about ensuring Canada has the economic policies and leadership it needs in these troubled times. Canadians want and expect all parties to work together to that end. That means we need to be willing to consider what the Conservatives will bring forward in January.

We need to make the case that the coalition so far has been a clear success. We have succeeded in getting Harper to back down on campaign finance, on the public sector strike ban, and he moved up the budget. Those were concessions he wouldn’t have made without a strong and united coalition holding his feet to the fire. He has failed to deliver immediate and serious economic stimulus, and he has yet (to my recollection) to back down on the regressive changes to pay equity.

We need to make clear that we expect real, serious and meaningful action from the Conservatives in this budget. If he has genuinely gotten the message, if he has taken the action needed for the economy, then we’re open to considering it. If it falls short, the coalition is ready to vote it down and form government itself to give Canada the leadership it needs.

Now, I have my doubts that Harper is genuinely willing to compromise. And I don’t see how we can ever again trust a guy who has repeatedly lied to Canadians, called us treasonous coup plotters, and questioned our patriotism.

However, Canadians expect us to be reasonable, and they won’t consider it reasonable for us to be dismissing out of hand a budget document that won’t be presented for six weeks, and hasn’t even been written yet. That will turn the public against us in a big way.

And that brings us to Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff. Bob is touring the country, having appointed himself as the chief coalition booster, giving fiery speeches saying we’ll bring down Harper in January no matter what. And his supporters are making this a leadership wedge issue, saying because Ignatieff isn’t saying let’s vote down the budget before we see it, that he isn’t committed to the coalition. That he’s ruining our chances of taking power. This is a load of crap.

First of all, those fiery speeches of Bob’s sound great to Liberal partisans. Dump Harper, ra ra. But to Canadians it’s the worst kind of crass political opportunism. It shows us as nakedly hungry for power, and sends the message this isn’t about the economy. Now this strategy may help Bob gain some Liberal delegates for the leadership. But it will cost this coalition public support, and makes it less likely to succeed. It may help Bob, but at the cost of the coalition.

Despite the attempts to distort his position on the coalition, Michael has been quite clear: the coalition has succeeded so far, let’s see what Harper does on the budget, if it’s not good enough we vote it down. That’s a pragmatic, principled position that Canadians will accept and support. Maybe it doesn’t satisfy the rabid firebrand partisans hungry for blood. But it’s a position that satisfies mainstream Canadians, that puts the interests of the country ahead of leadership politics, and gives this coalition its best chance of success.

Remember, a majority of Canadians voted for progressive parties. They’re naturally inclined to be supportive of a progressive coalition. But we need to win then over first. Let’s be smart about this.

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