Taking the fall to avoid a fall vote

I’ve fallen behind on my blogging so writing the lengthily post I’d planned on the avoidance of a fall election with the NDP’s decision to prop-up the Harper Conservatives until their EI reforms are passed now seems dated. I will make a few observations though.

I was surprised by the NDP decision, and I wasn’t. I was surprised because their rhetoric for months about how Harper’s defeat was a moral imperative and how the Liberal decision to support the government to avoid an election and get stimulus flowing was a betrayal of all that is holy and good would make for an embarrassing climb-down I didn’t think the NDP could stomach. And I wasn’t surprised because, really, finding some way to support the government was the only move that made strategic sense for the NDP. They don’t have money, and with their standing in the polls they stand to say good-bye to a chunk of their caucus.

So, they made the tough call to avoid an election, everyone breathes a sigh of relief, and we’re probably clear until the spring. While I was ready and willing to fight a campaign this fall, I’m happy to have more time to organize. And I’m happy to have broken the cycle of bluster and back-down.

While my Liberal friends and I will have much fun needling the NDP over their propping-up of Harper, much as they did the same when the shoe was on the other foot, in the wider picture it doesn’t really matter. While the NDP liked to trumped the “59 straight votes” they cast against the Harper government (and the Liberals for) the reality is, most Canadians don’t care. The Liberals neither took a hit for supporting the government, nor did they get a bump for helping avoid an election. The same will hold true for the NDP. Canadians will say no election, good, and go on with their lives.

Where it will rankle, though, is among the partisans. The constant justifications, the trying to convince yourself the concessions were meaningful, the decision to prop-up a government you fundamentally disagree with, it grated on Liberals. This fall it’s like a weight has been lifted from our shoulders. And shifted onto our NDP friends.

They’re trying vainly to justify the reversal in supposed long-held principles, to claim they’ve extracted great concessions, but their arguments largely ring hollow. First, they didn’t negotiate any concessions Harper proposed some EI changes he’d been talking about for some time, changes that don’t address the major concerns expressed by all three opposition parties, and the NDP jumped on them without even trying to get Harper to sweeten the pot. I think Harper was surprised as anyone they acquiesced so quickly.

The supposed concession aside, while the NDP made the right strategic decision, it’s how they get from A (Harper evil his defeat is a moral imperative he can’t be trusted) to B (Canadians don’t want an election we’re going to work with Harper on EI reform) that they haven’t explained well, and leaves them with a credibility gap.

Now, the Liberals have done a similar complete reversal, from “We’re trying to make parliament work to avoid an election” to “We can’t work with Harper anymore he can’t be trusted so we’ve lost confidence.” It’s also a reversal of position, but you can chart an evolution in thinking for getting from A to B. After trying and trying to work with Harper and getting no-where, always playing the Charlie Brown to Harper’s Lucy, we just can’t trust him anymore. You can disagree with the decision, but it’s a logical progression in thinking.

There’s no similar logical progression I’ve heard articulated for the NDP’s reversal, however. Harper’s defeat was a moral imperative before, but it’s not now? Harper couldn’t be trusted before, but he can now? You’ll vote no-confidence 59 times, but now an election is unavoidable? Many billions in stimulus funding, EI changes and more in the last budget isn’t worth grudging support, but a paltry $1 billion in minor EI reform that will benefit a small percentage of the unemployed is?

It begs the question, what has changed to explain the complete reversal in position? The only thing that changed is the NDP can no longer hide behind the Liberals. So, while the NDP made the only choice they could, it exposes their earlier moral piety as nothing but empty posturing that disappears when the chips are down, and their votes could actually trigger the election they never wanted all along.

And now we hear the NDP will be abstaining from Thursday’s confidence vote, as if that will make them feel better about keeping the Harper Conservatives in power. I know it didn’t when it was the Liberals in that position.

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