I have been confirmed as a voting delegate from Ottawa Centre for the upcoming Ontario Liberal Party annual meeting in Toronto, and I will be voting against a leadership review. Not because I think Bonnie Crombie has done an amazing job – in fact, I have a long list of issues– but because I think dumping the leader again and again and expecting different results without doing any of the hard rebuilding work needed is the definition of insanity, and would ensure Doug Ford rule until he gets tired of pretending to be Premier.
Let’s start with Crombie. I ended up voting for her after my
initial pick dropped out, and she was the more electable of the candidates on
offer. The others left standing were worse choices. And the arguments for her
were compelling: Liberal credentials but an OLP outsider, a proven fundraiser,
and someone who could help win back the Blue Liberals that we need to win back in
areas like Peel and York regions.
Did she deliver? Some yes, lots of no.
Pros: she raised a lot of money. I was a deputy campaign
manager in a swing riding where we came up just short; the centre provided a
lot of support in calling and IDs. The
size of caucus increased sharply, we regained official party status, and the
resources that comes with have allowed for more resources that will pay
dividends in the years ahead. Our caucus has always punched above its weight
and now, with more resources and strong new MPPs, it continually outshines the NDP’s
performative opposition. And we got a helluva lot more votes – it just wasn’t
as efficient as we would have liked.
Cons: She lost her own seat. Yes, Patrick Brown sent
in half of Brampton to campaign for his mother-in-law and against Crombie. But
a loss is a loss and this was embarrassing. On taking the leadership, she
brought in a lot of the same old people that have been running things back to
McGuinty. I voted for renewal and she delivered more of the same. The scramble
to find candidates for an election that it seemed obvious everyone knew was coming
was a major organizational failure. The central campaign lacked focus and
organization.
So, why not vote for a new leadership process? Because doing
so would not address any of the things that are wrong with out party. The
problem with the OLP isn’t Bonnie Crombie. It wasn’t Steven Del Duca either. I
voted for Michael Coteau and I couldn’t stand Del Duca’s vests, but I don’t think
Coteau would have done any better than he did.
The problem is that successive leaders have allowed the
party apparatus to atrophy. Riding associations have gone dormant. We got used
to being in government and being sent policy and organizers and messaging and campaign
managers from on high. We stopped grassroots organizing, we stopped building
the capacity at the riding and the regional level so that there were teams and
organization ready to go locally when the writ is dropped.
That’s the responsibility of the leader, yes. And the party
executive – they have largely escaped responsibility here. And the party
grassroots. There is no big red machine. It’s each of us committing to the
party’s renewal and revival. That is where the renewal needs to take place.
So I’m supporting Crombie, albeit reluctantly. Not because I
am convinced she has recognized the problem. But because it we dump the leader
(again) it guarantees that for two years we will be focused on leadership
shenanigans instead of what really ails the OLP.
Can she pull this out? Maybe. But I haven’t seen the things I
would want to see from her yet. Namely, a fulsome mea culpa on the 2025 campaign
and her shortcomings, a recognition of the deeper organizational issues with
the party, and a commitment to change.
I would put her opposition into two categories, and here is
where I will upset the other half of the party. Half are diehard Liberals who
view government as our manifest destiny and any election short of government as
a failure. I think she can win them over with the recognitions I have outlined –
a recognition of the problems and a plan to fix them, building on a stronger
base thanks to the 2025 results.
The other opposition group are the Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
acolytes who never got over him not winning the leadership and have always
viewed Crombie, despite her long history in Liberal politics well pre-dating his,
as a Conservative plant. These folks will not be dissuaded from their position.
And for all the reasons I put him last on my ballot for OLP leader last time,
he is not the answer to anything this time.
So that’s where I land. I am voting for a slim hope for
renewal versus the guarantee of two years of no chance of real renewal because
another leadership race will not solve what’s really wrong.
Back when the federal party was deep in the woods, as a
leadership candidate, Justin Trudeau astutely made the point that the party
could not rely on his personal charisma or family name to rebuild the party – it
would take hope and hard work and collective effort by everyone. He did end up
being a bit of a messiah anyways but his point was bang on.
As Liberals, we have a habit of investing all the credit for
our successes and responsibility for our failures with the leader. And sometimes you get lucky,
whether its with the son of a popular former Prime Minister born on Christmas
Day, or a former central banker arriving on the scene when the US is declaring
economic war.
But other times, you have a nice guy from Vaughan with a penchant
for sweater vests or a lady from Mississauga trying her best. It’s not fair to
expect them to carry us. Yes, we need to hold our leaders accountable. But we
need to hold ourselves accountable as well.
Hope and hard work can’t just be a slogan.
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