I have been confirmed as a voting delegate from Ottawa Centre
for the upcoming Ontario Liberal Party annual meeting in Toronto, and I will be
voting against a leadership review. Not because I think Bonnie Crombie has done
an amazing job – in fact, I have a long list of issues– but because I think dumping
the leader again and again and expecting different results without doing any of
the hard rebuilding work needed is the definition of insanity, and would ensure
Doug Ford rule until he gets tired of pretending to be Premier.
Let’s start with Crombie. I ended up voting for her after my
initial pick dropped out, and she was the more electable of the candidates on
offer. The others left standing were worse choices. And the arguments for her
were compelling: Liberal credentials but an OLP outsider, a proven fundraiser,
and someone who could help win back the Blue Liberals that we need to win back in
areas like Peel and York regions.
Did she deliver? Some yes, lots of no.
Pros: she raised a lot of money. I was a deputy campaign
manager in a swing riding where we came up just short; the centre provided a
lot of support in calling and IDs.The
size of caucus increased sharply, we regained official party status, and the
resources that comes with have allowed for more resources that will pay
dividends in the years ahead. Our caucus has always punched above its weight
and now, with more resources and strong new MPPs, it continually outshines the NDP’s
performative opposition. And we got a helluva lot more votes – it just wasn’t
as efficient as we would have liked.
Cons: She lost her own seat. Yes, Patrick Brown sent
in half of Brampton to campaign for his mother-in-law and against Crombie. But
a loss is a loss and this was embarrassing. On taking the leadership, she
brought in a lot of the same old people that have been running things back to
McGuinty. I voted for renewal and she delivered more of the same. The scramble
to find candidates for an election that it seemed obvious everyone knew was coming
was a major organizational failure. The central campaign lacked focus and
organization.
So, why not vote for a new leadership process? Because doing
so would not address any of the things that are wrong with out party. The
problem with the OLP isn’t Bonnie Crombie. It wasn’t Steven Del Duca either. I
voted for Michael Coteau and I couldn’t stand Del Duca’s vests, but I don’t think
Coteau would have done any better than he did.
The problem is that successive leaders have allowed the
party apparatus to atrophy. Riding associations have gone dormant. We got used
to being in government and being sent policy and organizers and messaging and campaign
managers from on high. We stopped grassroots organizing, we stopped building
the capacity at the riding and the regional level so that there were teams and
organization ready to go locally when the writ is dropped.
That’s the responsibility of the leader, yes. And the party
executive – they have largely escaped responsibility here. And the party
grassroots. There is no big red machine. It’s each of us committing to the
party’s renewal and revival. That is where the renewal needs to take place.
So I’m supporting Crombie, albeit reluctantly. Not because I
am convinced she has recognized the problem. But because it we dump the leader
(again) it guarantees that for two years we will be focused on leadership
shenanigans instead of what really ails the OLP.
Can she pull this out? Maybe. But I haven’t seen the things I
would want to see from her yet. Namely, a fulsome mea culpa on the 2025 campaign
and her shortcomings, a recognition of the deeper organizational issues with
the party, and a commitment to change.
I would put her opposition into two categories, and here is
where I will upset the other half of the party. Half are diehard Liberals who
view government as our manifest destiny and any election short of government as
a failure. I think she can win them over with the recognitions I have outlined –
a recognition of the problems and a plan to fix them, building on a stronger
base thanks to the 2025 results.
The other opposition group are the Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
acolytes who never got over him not winning the leadership and have always
viewed Crombie, despite her long history in Liberal politics well pre-dating his,
as a Conservative plant. These folks will not be dissuaded from their position.
And for all the reasons I put him last on my ballot for OLP leader last time,
he is not the answer to anything this time.
So that’s where I land. I am voting for a slim hope for
renewal versus the guarantee of two years of no chance of real renewal because
another leadership race will not solve what’s really wrong.
Back when the federal party was deep in the woods, as a
leadership candidate, Justin Trudeau astutely made the point that the party
could not rely on his personal charisma or family name to rebuild the party – it
would take hope and hard work and collective effort by everyone. He did end up
being a bit of a messiah anyways but his point was bang on.
As Liberals, we have a habit of investing all the credit for
our successes and responsibility for our failures with the leader. And sometimes you get lucky,
whether its with the son of a popular former Prime Minister born on Christmas
Day, or a former central banker arriving on the scene when the US is declaring
economic war.
But other times, you have a nice guy from Vaughan with a penchant
for sweater vests or a lady from Mississauga trying her best. It’s not fair to
expect them to carry us. Yes, we need to hold our leaders accountable. But we
need to hold ourselves accountable as well.
After about two hours
sleep, I made the trek downtown from Scarborough bright and early
Saturday morning to see if I had a shot at being promoted from
alternate to voting delegate, and would have the opportunity to casta vote for Gerard Kennedy in the Ontario Liberal leadership race.
Alas, I wasn't on the list, so I could only watch, cheer, persuade, and hope for the best.
Paths to victory
Going in, Kennedy was a
long-shot, but there was a path to victory for him. It had to happen
early, though.
The first ballot results were pretty well set based on
the results of delegate selection. In my mind, we would know in the
20 minutes between the announcement of those first-ballot results and
the deadline to drop off 2nd ballot voluntarily if he was
going to have a shot at winning. If he – or Charles Sousa or
Harinder Takhar for that matter – were going to have a shot at
winning, one of them had to go to the other before that ballot was
set. If Kennedy picked up someone's support it would have shown
momentum and moved him within reasonable striking-distance of the two
frontrunners, Kathleen Wynne and Sandra Pupatello, making him a
legitimate choice for delegates not sold on either of the top two.
But if he didn't pick up that support early, in that 20 minutes, the
victory of one of the top two would be inevitable, and delegates
would make their choice between the two.
Rumours abounded on the
hospitality circuit that Takhar would drop to go to Kennedy, and
early, perhaps delivering an endorsement during his speech. It seemed
likely Eric Hoskins would go to Wynne, possibly delivering an
endorsement during his speech, so Kennedy needed Takhar to have a
path to victory on Saturday.
So maybe speeches do
matter
Once the program got
underway, the focus of the morning was the demonstration and
speeches, with each leadership candidate having 30 minutes to make
their final pitch to the delegates.
I hadn't been following
the leadership race too closely, having been somewhat preoccupiedwith the federal affair, so I was interested in learning more about
the candidates. Of course I knew Kennedy, and had formed impressions
of Pupatello, Wynne and Hoskins, but knew little about Sousa and
Takhar.
Takhar had a strong
speech, with some good policy but a very compelling personal
narrative. His story about his immigration to Canada, and the
compromises he had to make to his religious and cultural identity in
order to find employment, was powerful. It reminded us of how far we
have come, that he could now be on this stage as a leadership
contender, but also reminded us of how far we still have to go. For
those hoping for an early move to Kennedy though, the speech ended
with no announcement.
Kennedy was up next,
and his team's blue day two swag (tied to a Kennedy wave message) was
a visible presence in the arena. Someone on Twitter remarked he
delivered an address that reminded his supporters why they supported
him, but may not have swayed other delegates. I think that was
probably fair. I know his message resonated with me. It hit the
issues I care about, from party reform to education, and made me
proud to have supported him. But as much as I like the message, it
seemed to lack a certain energy, a certain call to movement.
Wynne spoke third, but
it was undoubtedly the climatic moment of the morning. There are some
pundits that say speeches don't matter at these things. These people
are full of crap. This was a delegated convention, her audience was
all in that room, and their second choice votes were up for grabs.
And with the two frontrunners in a dead heat, the speeches could make
a real diference. And her's did. While the dancing was high-risk, it
played to the fun and high-energy nature of her presentation. She was
throwing a party, and you wanted to join. Her speech offered vision,
and it offered unity. It was aspirational. And it was bold, taking
head-on the “Ontario isn't ready for a gay premier” bullshit and
swatting it away. It dared us to be better. I was leaning that away
before, but she solidified my second choice support in those 30
minutes.
A lot of my organizer
friends were involved on Team Sousa, and they had a presence at the
convention that belied their delegate count. Their #CS521 (Charles
Sousa 5th to 1st) slogan bespoke their plucky
underdog spirit. His speech was well delivered and offered some
interesting and important policy prescriptions. But after the
emotional high of Wynne's address, he had a tough act to follow.
Pupatello's
presentation didn't really connect for me. It was well crafted and
delivered, it was professional, but it was just missing something for
me. She was a bit more blunt, a bit less conciliatory, and the tone
seemed a bit more suited to a post-vote victory address than an
appeal for support from people that may not have you as their first
choice. Contrasted to the tone of her brief concession remarks after
the final ballot – energetic, magnanimous, fun and spot on – the
tone just seemed off to me.
Rounding out the
program was Dr. Hoskins, who had the unfortunate slot of being
between the delegates, the media, and lunch (I had Chipotle, it was
excellent). Many were also expecting an endorsement from the stage,
with the rumour being a move to Pupatello, who, according to several
reports, had sent delegates to don Hoskins shirts to bolster his
floor demonstration. So between their desire to get to lunch and watch for an endorsement, many missed the content of a strong address from
a very accomplished man. Hoskins is one of those people we always say
we should have more of in politics, with as impressive a personal
biography as you'll ever see. Sadly, with the lowest delegate count
his first-ballot exit was inevitable. His speech ended with no
endorsement, and lunch could be procured (chicken burrito, no beans).
Ballot One
First, though, we would
get the results of the first ballot. This was less important than
what would happen immediately after: while the last place candidate
would be automatically dropped, the other candidates would have 20
minutes if they wanted to withdraw voluntarily from the next ballot.
And it was in this 20 minutes that the course of this race would be
decided.
On ballot one, it was:
Pupatello 599 votes
28.7%
Wynne: 597 votes 28.6%
Kennedy: 281 votes
13.5%
Takhar: 235 votes 11.3%
Sousa: 222 votes 10.7%
Hoskins 150 votes 7.2%
For my preferred
candidate, Gerard Kennedy, the next 20 minutes would determine if he
had a shot or not. The problem was that he was in the middle – far
enough back of the top two to be out of the pack, not far enough
ahead of the others to separate himself from them. He needed to pick
up Takhar, Sousa or Hoskins to vault himself into consideration.
Basically, if one of the 3rd-5th candidates going to win,
one of the others had to fall on their swords and make an early move to one of the others. Otherwise, either Wynne
or Pupatello would win, and each ballot they remained would only
prolong the inevitable.
Hoskins quickly made
his way to the Wynne camp, as most expected. It was an early momentum
boost for Team Wynne, who seemed to me to have greater growth
potential than Pupatello. When no further dropoffs were announced, I
began to wade through the crowds of people lining up to vote on ballot
two and head for the street, and my burrito. With Takhar staying on
the second ballot and no move to Kennedy, it wasn't looking good for
Gerard but it wasn't completely over yet. And then I made it to Carlton
Street, and it was.
Overhearing two
Pupatello delegates discussing Takhar's move to Sandra's camp, I
immediately turned to my BlackBerry and Twitter to confirm. Bad
rumours of moves to Pupatello had abounded all morning, but sadly,
CP24 confirmed this one has true. While he was still on the second
ballot, he had moved to endorse Pupatello. For her, it was a much
needed move to counter the momentum of Hoskins to Wynne. And for
Kennedy, it was the closure of his last path to victory. While it
seemed like a deal had been done the night before, it's never done
until it's done. Harinder decided to go another way, and the die was
cast: it would be Wynne or Pupatello, and Ontario would soon have its
first female premier.
Ballot Two
Coming back to the hall
from lunch buoyed by Chipotle goodness but saddened by the inevitable
defeat of my preferred candidate, many were already looking ahead to
second choices. The tide, to me, definitely seemed to be with Wynne.
I made arrangements to procure a Wynne scarf, which unlike much
convention swag is actually high quality and very warm, and shall be
my daily scarf through the rest of the winter. While some of my Kennedy
friends tried gamely to create scenarios, for most there was a sense
of resignation, and a strong feeling for Wynne as the next best
choice. Team Sousa seemed less willing to consider what would come
next, even as hopes for a CS521 faded. Team Wynne was energetic, Team
Pupatello, the frontrunners going in, seemed nervous.
The second ballot
results solidified the die that had been cast earlier in those
crucial 20 minutes:
Pupatello: 817 votes,
39.4%
Wynne: 750 votes, 36.2%
Kennedy: 285 votes,
13.7%
Sousa: 203 votes, 9.8%
Takhar: 18 votes, 0.9%
Kennedy only gained a
handful of votes; his path to victory was already closed. He could
stay on for further ballots, but it would only delay the inevitable.
Sousa had gained another ballot with Takhar not getting off the 2nd
ballot in time, but he too had no path to victory.
While Pupatello had
actually gained ground on Wynne from the first ballot, I actually
still liked Wynne's chances better. The gap wasn't wide enough, and her
growth potential was greater. At this point, the thinking was Kennedy
to Wynne, and Pupatello to Sousa. I saw Kennedy delivering most of
his support (which ideologically would be unlikely to go Pupatello)
with Sousa's likely splitting, creating a narrow Wynne victory.
Again, we had 20
minutes to see who, besides Takhar, might drop from the ballot and
move to another camp.
It happened quickly,
it happened dramatically, and it happened unexpectedly. Sousa was
the first to make a move, leaving his section of the arena stands
(which was beside Pupatello) and moving across the arena, toward
Wynne's. It was an unexpected move, and as I strained to follow from
the rafters, I wondered if he'd pull a fake-out and loop back around
the media risers to Pupatello's box. Then the cameras found him in
Wynne's literal and figurative embrace, a scarf draped around his
neck, and it was done. While there was much talk going in of Kennedy
as the queen maker, it was Sousa that sealed the deal, and likely the
finance minister's post in next week's cabinet shuffle. Kennedy's
move to Wynne shortly thereafter seemed inevitable, and wrapped a bow
around the likely outcome.
With the third ballot
cast, I headed out to the Holiday Inn to enjoy an adult beverage with
some Liberal friends without convention passes. What did give me
pause on my way out though was a large gaggle of Sousa delegates at
the coat check, clearly heading home without having voted. This thing wasn't decided yet – either candidate could come out on
top.
Third and final
ballot
As I enjoyed a glass of
wine next door at the hotel bar, I noted a good number of bar goers
wearing Wynne swag, but couldn't spot one wearing the gear of the
other front runner. I decided this could mean one of two things:
either Team Pupatello was working the vote too hard to take a break,
or they were in no mood for adult beverages. While I pondered this, I
learned that some sort of flood in the voting room had delayed
things, and so I ordered another glass of wine.
I finally did make my
way back into the arena – this time the protestors had cleared,
leaving behind only discarded protest signs and littered Tim Hortons
cups – and set back up in the rafters to await the result. And
after several false ten-minute warnings, it came:
Wynne: 1,150
Pupatello: 866
With both Sousa and Kennedy moving to Wynne, the result wasn't as close as it seemed it
may be earlier – it was a clear victory for Wynne. Pupatello was
magnanimous and genuine in defeat, and Wynne conciliatory and
inclusionary in victory. She promised a quick return to work with a
speedy recall of the legislature, and wasted to time reaching out
across party lines to the NDP and the Conservatives, the latter of
which wasted no time launching an attack ad.
It will be interesting
times ahead. Some pundits wasted no time saying a gay woman from
Toronto (actually, Richmond Hill, to be accurate) would never sell
outside the GTA. I have to say, I'd hate to be someone that has such
a low opinion of his fellow citizens. The people are often much more
progressive than their representatives or, to be more accurate, more
concerned with pocketbook issues than so-called values attacks.
Whenever the next election is, whether it be sooner or hopefully
later, everyone would do well to remember that.
I was proud to have
supported Gerard Kennedy. I don't know what the future holds for him,
but I hope we'll see him back in the legislature, as his talents are
needed. And I was proud to support Kathleen Wynne, and to have been there when such inspiring change came to Ontario. I heard one
astounding number later that night – 85 per cent of Canadians will
now have a female Premier. Maybe we're almost to the point where it
will no longer be noteworthy.
I'm increasingly of the belief that the way to cover a political convention, social media-wise, is to Tweet during the day, and provide a more thought-out perspective at night. So that's what I'm going to try to do for my coverage of the Ontario Liberal Party leadership race this weekend, where I'm a Gerard Kennedy alternate and unofficial blogger at large.
Below you'll find a Storify of my tweets during this first, short day of #olpldr. And I do mean short. All that was on the agenda was the official opening and a tribute to outgoing leader Dalton McGuinty. At a federal Liberal convention, that would be five hours at least. The provincial party knocked it out in about an hour-and-a-half.
It was nice enough. Two of his children MC'd the entertainment portion, with brief performances covering every musical genre except opera. There was the video of Dalton with famous people. And then a speech from the man himself. It was touching for the personal notes -- his wish his father could have lived to see him enter politics, his love for his mother and her influence on his life. He reflected more on what he'd accomplished than where he thinks we should go -- natural enough for the setting and occasion but I'd like to have seen a nod to his view of the path forward.
And then suddenly, and surprisingly, it was over. Not with a bang, seemingly, but with a whimper. And as the delegates began to file from the hall before 9pm, I sat there for a moment with a "is that really it?" feeling. Really, though, it was business like, and so was Dalton. When time has softened the edges of recent dramas, I think history will look well on his tenure.
Otherwise, today was about registering, and connecting with our respective campaigns. And, of course, the hospitality suites. As mentioned, I'm a Kennedy alternate. I'm told our full slate from my riding will be coming, so my chances for promotion are slim to none. I'm still proud to cheer Gerard on though, as he truly is the best choice for Premier, and, as the polls show, to lead the OLP into the next election.
The challenge for Gerard will be to show strong enough on ballot two that a Wynne/Pupatello showdown isn't seen as inevitable. If he can gain enough delegates to get into striking range, he's in the battle and will have a shot at winning his fair share of delegates as ballots continue. But I think he needs to make an early move. He needs someone to come to him early. Otherwise, people will see it as Wynne or Pupatello and they'll pick their horse. We'll see what happens Saturday morning.
Hospitality suite report: lots of food at Charles Sousa's, which was down the street away from the others and was quite spacious. Also, wine and Martinis. Kennedy's was wall-to-wall-packed and had a line to get in. I'm told there was micro brew on tap -- I couldn't get close enough to the bar. All the others had suites as well, but I had to get back to Scarborough.
