Senate reform shouldn’t be a populist bandwagon of convenience

Following Stephen Harper’s appointment of several (more) failed Conservative candidates to the Senate, we’ve seen the usual outrage over the sheer contempt demonstrated by the moves. But for those who say Harper is trying to (semi) reform the upper chamber by bringing it into disrepute, some evidence is also emerging there may be some method to his madness.

In Newfoundland, where Fabian Manning’s move from Harper Senator to candidate rejected at the polls this week back to Harper Senator has raised hackles, the Liberal opposition leader is suddenly calling for Senate elections:

Newfoundland and Labrador should elect its first senator this fall, the province's opposition leader said Wednesday. "All it would take to elect a senator would be an extra ballot for voters to mark when they vote in this fall's provincial election," Liberal leader Yvonne Jones said in a news release.

The province’s Conservative Premier, incidentally, isn’t a fan of the idea.

And closer to home in Ontario, I’m hearing rumours Dalton McGuinty’s provincial Liberal government may add a Senate election to this fall’s scheduled provincial elections.

I must say, I’m skeptical of this sudden interest in Senate elections by two provincial Liberal parties. Given that I don’t recall this being a topic of discussion in these circles before, I’d have to guess the fact the federal Liberals are in the wilderness and won’t be wielding the power of appointment any time soon may have something to do with it.

More so, though, this seems to me to be a knee-jerk reaction to Harper’s provocations with these latest appointments. Jones and McGuinty may see this as a chance to jump on a populist bandwagon by pushing for Senate elections, hoping a populist wave may raise their own boats at the polls this fall.

Whether their political calculus is accurate or not, it’s a short-sighted move that would be bad for public policy and regional representation at the federal level. And, I suspect, it would play into Harper’s hands. Even if a Liberal senator may get elected in one of these elections (small risk in Ontario, I’d say, but maybe not in Newfoundland) and he’d have to appoint them, I think Harper would see it as a small price to pay for moving toward an elected senate giving him a victory on his version of Senate reform.

As I’ve written many times, Harper’s piecemeal Senate reform plan is dangerous. Electing Senators gives them legitimacy and the mandate to exercise their power.

• We shouldn’t take that step until we consider just what we want Senators to do – how are they different from MPs and what should their legislative role be?
• The current Senate composition also severely under-represents British Columbia. We need to fix the regional balance of the Senate before giving it real power and the legitimacy of elected members; otherwise we’re entrenching the unfair treatment of the West.
• A Senate with a mix of elected members exercising their constitutional powers and appointed members not exercising those powers would be a mess.

Meaningful Senate reform would require constitutional amendment, an option the Conservatives have shown no interest in entertaining. Their piecemeal reforms are designed to give the appearance of reform but major planks, such as term limits, are likely wouldn’t survive a court challenge. It’s all just for show.

If we want to debate Senate reform we should do it full-hog. Until then, I support maintaining the status quo. Which means Harper can appoint whomever he wants, and if we object we can vote against him in four years.

In the interim, I’d urge my provincial cousins not to put populist calculations and provincial electoral expediency ahead of the future of the red chamber; gaining a few points of support provincially isn’t worth saddling us with a dysfunctional and disfigured yet powerful Senate. They need to look at the big picture.

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Ontario numbers that will make Gordon Campbell cry

I was writing yesterday about the politics of the debate around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Well, interesting to see some polling numbers for Ontario drop this morning for Ipsos Reid. Here they are:

Ontario Liberal Party: 37 per cent

Progressive Conservatives: 32 per cent

Ontario NDP: 20 per cent

Greens: 11 per cent

Clearly it's going to take more than just HST anger to unseat the McGuinty Liberals. The Conservatives' "it's bad but we won't scrap it" position isn't credible, and the NDP will need more than anti-HST rhetoric to convince Ontarians it can govern. I'd like to think these numbers are a sign people accept and respect the need for governments to make hard choices, and that may be part of it, but I also don't think they're enamored with their alternatives.

Meanwhile, on the left coast Gordon Campbell must be looking at the Ontario numbers and sobbing softly in a dark corner of the legislature. An Angus Reid poll from earlier this month paints a bleak picture for the BC Liberals:

BC NDP: 46 per cent
BC Liberals: 26 per cent
Greens: 14 per cent
BC Conservatives: 8 per cent

And while the NDP is poised for victory currently, it should be noted this is a continuation of the see-saw nature of BC politics. Were there a credible third-party, a centrist alternative, polling shows it would win the next election. And BC has semi-workable (more workable than I thought, actually) recall and referendum legislation.

As I hinted at yesterday, and others mentioned in the comments, there are substantial differences between Ontario and B.C. I think Ontario is more steady-she-goes by nature, while B.C. is more populist rough and tumble. The HST was also rolled-out much differently in B.C., with Campbell having denied plans to harmonize during the last election and then announcing plans days after the vote.

It's the perceived dishonesty that gives the anti-HST campaign momentum in BC, as well as years of building fatigue with the Campbell government. I still think it's good policy, and that the referendum attempt to overturn it is a mistake, but I understand the anger. I just think the place to express it is the ballot (and I'm sure they'll express it there too). But a referendum to overturn good policy because you're mad at the government is a bad idea, and will be bad for the province in the long run.

Back to Ontario though, on the topic of getting the word out, McGuinty has turned to the inter-webs with this video to help do that:

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The HST affair showcases all that’s wrong with politics today

If you’re looking for a case-study for all that’s wrong with modern politics in this country, one issue that is a microcosm of all the practices, methods and tends contributing to the degradation of political debate in Canada, then you can’t do any better than the “debate” around the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST).

At the federal level, you’ve got the Conservatives who have sent billions of dollars to Ontario and B.C. to sweeten the deal encouraging them to harmonize, while their backbenchers insist no, that’s a provincial thing, nothing to do with us, we think it sucks. You’ve got the Liberals who pushed harmonization in government and don’t want to piss-off their cousins in Ontario but, at the same time, would dearly love to capitalize on the populist anti-HST feeling, result: a muddied position that pleases few. Luckily the NDP aren’t troubled by ideological consistency, the party that never met a tax it didn’t like will oppose this one in Ontario and B.C. for pure politics, while ignoring that the Nova Scotia NDP government just jacked-up their HST to the highest level in Canada. And the BQ say we’re cool with the HST, just as long as you give a few billion to Quebec because they made changes to their tax system that aren’t really the same but, hey, give us money.

Then there’s the provincial level. In Ontario, you’ve got the McGuinty Liberals only seeming to start to get serious about selling this thing to the public and counter-acting some of the hysteria out there. You’ve got Tim Hudak’s Conservatives breaking with their federal cousins to oppose the HST, even though they can’t seem to articulate why it’s bad policy and won’t even promise to repeal it if elected. And then there’s the Ontario NDP, blind in their opposition and happy to distort and misinform.

Out in BC, Gordon Campbell’s Conservaliberals are facing more public outcry because they seemed to rule out harmonization during the last election, then announced they were harmonizing mere days after the ballots were cast. They thought they could ride-out the storm but are now waking-up to some serious trouble. Former Socred Bill Vander Zalm, of all people, who left the premiership in disgrace, is leading a popular revolt against the tax, with the support of the BC NDP (strange bedfellows) that could lead to a referendum to repeal the HST there. But Vander Zalm and the BC NDP (unlike their Ontario cousins, they could actually form government so they need to face a few more serious questions) don’t seem willing to address how this would happen: how would you revert the tax system back, and how about the billion dollars in harmonization funding the feds will want back. Which hospitals will you close to find that money? They just want you angry, they don't want you thinking.

Instead of a debate of facts around the HST, we’ve been treated to mass hysteria. It’s like the ugly baby with no parents. The federal government doesn’t want it. Ontario has been low-key about selling it; B.C. even more so. And the opposition parties have all been more interested in stoking populist fervor to paint this as a tax hike instead of opposing on policy grounds, and proposing reforms or alternatives, or just what they'd do differently. Or even how they'd repeal it, and what that would mean.

Myself, I think the timing was bad (and in BC, it was handled stupidly) but sales tax harmonization is good policy. It’s more efficient, and will save government and business money. Value-added taxes are just more efficient than taxes on production, or on income. Some items will cost more for consumers in the short-term, but it will net-out in the long-run as savings are passed on, investments are made and new jobs are created. This has been the case in every other jurisdiction in Canada where the HST has been implemented. I think there is room for tinkering and adjustment, but overall it’s good policy that should be supported.

There’s plenty of room to debate that, I just wish the debate would be on the facts and on the policy, not on hysteria. To that end, I found this list from the Ontario government on specific items and how their tax treatment will change (or not) to be interesting. They’ve also put out information on how it will impact people, and impact businesses.

We've all been ill-served by all our politicians in this affair. Partly, it's our own fault. I think most people that sit down and consider it objectively will support harmonization. But, knowing most of us can't be bothered or just don't have the time, we're pandered to with sound bites and simplistic arguments that don't do this debate justice. Unless we demand better, we can only blame ourselves for the result.

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Show me the money, Jim Flaherty!

I’ve never lived in a have-not province before, it’s kind of exciting. I’m not sure how this works though. Will Jim Flaherty be sending me a cheque or something? Do I get a discount card? Such progress we’re making under the Harper government, so exciting!

Ontario qualifies for equalization payments for first time in province's history

By: THE CANADIAN PRESS

MISSISSAUGA, Ont. - Ontario will qualify for equalization payments next year for the first time in the province's history, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty confirmed Monday.

Flaherty made the comment on his way into a half-day meeting with his provincial colleagues at the Toronto airport. "Ontario will be very happy with the figure that I will give them this morning, which will be their share of the equalization program next year," Flaherty said.

(more)

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Don't make Dalton angry...you won't like him when he's angry

If there's a federal election coming up soon (fingers crossed), then Dalton McGuinty will be suiting-up:

Premier Dalton McGuinty vowed today to remind Ontario voters in the next federal election that Ottawa is short-changing the province, just as Prime Minister Stephen Harper took a campaign-style swing through Canada's most populous province.

"I think that's my responsibility," McGuinty said in Kitchener, ahead of Harper's scheduled stop in the southern Ontario city.

"I intend to be more vocal than I have been in the past and help Ontarians fully understand the nature of our economic challenge."

...

McGuinty, once dubbed the "small man of Confederation" by the federal Conservatives, shot back with a sharply worded letter to Harper, accusing Flaherty of undermining confidence in Ontario and failing the province by not using the hefty federal surplus to stimulate its economy.

The war of words died down after polls suggested the bickering was backfiring on the Tories and costing them crucial support in vote-rich Ontario.

McGuinty's pledge Tuesday to ramp up the rhetoric seemed to be aimed squarely at Harper, whose whirlwind tour through southern Ontario has heightened speculation that an election will soon be called.

Also suiting-up will be the team that helped the McGuinty Liberals clobber the Tory Tories and win a second, even larger majority in Ontario last fall. Just how popular are the provincial Liberals? Says Nanos:

The poll, conducted in early August, shows Premier Dalton McGuinty and the ruling Liberals are maintaining a 10-point lead over the second-place Progressive Conservatives -- similar to the results of last fall's provincial election.

"The NDP have managed to improve support in the last two months, but there's been no significant change in support for (party leader) John Tory's Conservatives since the last election," said Nanos Research President Nik Nanos.

The results show the Grits with 41% support among decided voters and the Progressive Conservatives with 31%. The NDP came in at 17%, followed by the Green Party, who sit at 11%.

What about the Harper Cons? Well, according to Decima:

In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 40%, the Conservatives with 31%, the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 14%. Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 40% compared to the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 13%.

It's a nine point Liberal lead already in vote-rich Ontario. And with Team McGuinty suiting-up in a campaign, some Conservative seats are going to be in play...

That whole Stephen Harper/Jim Flaherty strategy of Ontario sucks, don't invest there is looking like more and more of a strategic genius move by the day.

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Businesses creates jobs in Ontario, ignore Jim Flaherty

This was the advice federal finance minister and Ontario MP Jim Flaherty had for businesses last month, after his budget:

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty launched a post-budget blitz Friday by lecturing provinces on the need to lower taxes and taking a swipe at Premier Dalton McGuinty for making Ontario "the last place" in Canada to start a business.
...
"It discourages investment in the province of Ontario," he said. "If you're going to make a new business investment in Canada, and you're concerned about taxes, the last place you will go is the province of Ontario."

With the latest job creation numbers out yesterday though, it appears that business owners didn't heed Jim Flaherty's advice not to invest in Ontario:

Some 20,000 of those factory jobs disappeared in Ontario. Still, Canada's biggest province added a net 46,000 positions in February, as builders, business-support providers and public administration more than offset the loss.

Maybe that's why Jim seems to have changed his tune:

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in London, Ont., that he was particularly pleased with the jobs growth in Ontario.

“This is a good development. We have economic growth in all regions of the country and people are able to adjust to get new jobs,” Mr. Flaherty said.

At least he's not bitter that business leaders didn't listen to him and invested and created jobs anyways. Thank god no one takes Jim Flaherty seriously.

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Liberal growth potential in the 905?

As a frustrated Greg Weston earlier griped, if it were up to Ontario the Liberals would be in government and Stephane Dion would be Prime Minister. Indeed, most polls have showed strong Liberal strength in Ontario, both for Dion and for the party.

Indeed, the latest SES numbers show the Liberals up by nearly 10 points in Ontario:

Liberals: 35.7 per cent
Conservatives: 26.6 per cent
NDP: 15.6 per cent
Greens: 5.3 per cent
Unsure: 16.9 per cent (more than support the NDP, interesting)

And when only decided voters are included:

Liberal: 42.9 per cent
Conservatives: 31.9 per cent
NDP: 18.8 per cent
Greens: 6.4 per cent

What is also interesting, and could lead to positive seat growth for the Liberals, is some of the demographic shifts taking place in the 905 belt, that suburban area outside of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This suburban area is where Mike Harris won his majorities. They tend to be more Conservative-minded, and this is where Harper has been making inroads, with plans for more in the next election.

An interesting article in the Globe last month however, written after the provincial election, identified an interesting trend that could have important federal implications as well. The 905 ridings are becoming increasingly urban and, therefore, more likely to vote Liberal:

Ryerson University political scientist Neil Tomlinson said the movement of people from Toronto to rapidly growing suburbs such as Milton or Barrie was reflected in the shift away from the Tories on Wednesday. Their share of the provincial vote fell in 21 of 23 ridings, only eight of which went Conservative.

Prof. Tomlinson said the change in 905 voting comes from a fundamental shift in values.

"The whole character in these areas is now so different than a traditional suburban area. They are really urban. ... And as the character of an area changes, the issues that resonate with them change," he said.

And those issues are particularly interesting, as they are issues that the Harper government has all but ignored, not boding well for his chances in the 905. The whole drop dead incident comes to mind. The issues?

…the new suburbanites are more concerned with issues such as urban sprawl and the environment than the 905 denizens of the past, who found their rural and small-town values better represented by the Tories.

Now, in the interests of fairness, the professor does say he doesn’t think Harper needs to worry, as provincial issues and dynamics drove the seat results in October. True enough. But if he’s correct in identifying the demographic shifts then I’d say Harper does need to worry.

If the Liberals can make city issues front and centre, issues Harper has continued to ignore, then there would seem to be great room for growth in the 905. And, if nothing else, fighting a holding action would make Harper’s majority much more difficult to achieve.

Now, the other major driving factor in the 905 belt is ethnic issues, an area Harper and Jason Kenney have been putting a lot of effort into. But that’s a whole other story, and one others are better suited to address then I.

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A project for Dalton

With their second majority mandate now in hand, I think it’s time for the Ontario Liberals to show that leadership really does matter and begin to do something about the religious schools issue.

That may sound crazy, I know. After all, this is the issue that in all likelihood cost the John Tory Conservatives their chance at forming a government, and certainly cost Tory his seat. And the Liberals and McGuinty were very careful not to wade too deeply into the nuts and bolts of the issue during the campaign, which was very smart politics. It’s not leadership, but it was smart politics, and it helped them win the election.

I think John Tory was very wrong on this issue; I think extending public funding to all religions is a very bad idea. It wouldn’t integrate the system as claimed, it would further divide it, leading to a balkanization of the system as students are sent to different schools depending on religion. It wouldn’t unite, it would divide.

While Tory was wrong in his solution, he was very correct however in identifying the problem. It is fundamentally unfair to fund one religious minority, Catholics , and not others. And for the record, I attended a Catholic school in Grade One and Two. I don’t think the answer is funding all religions though, it’s funding none of them.

This is an issue that should be addressed, and one that isn’t likely to go away. An election campaign probably wasn’t the best time to have this debate either. But now that the campaign is over and McGuinty is safely settled back into the legislature for up to five years, I think it’s time for the government to take action.

It should appoint a commission or panel of respected and learned individuals/s to study the issue and come up with recommendations: should we maintain the status quo, extend funding to all, or extend funding to none? The panel should tour the province, hold hearings, hear from different religious, minority and ethnic groups and just regular citizens, debate these issues and try to come to a consensus.

If there is a consensus that develops, the government should take action on it. Because Tory was right about one thing, leadership does matter. And I’d like to see McGuinty show some leadership here.

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Sensible tax policy from Ontario

I like this announcement from health promotion minister Jim Watson. It just makes sense. The costs of smoking-related illness are a huge drain on the health care system, so why not make it cheaper and easier for people to quit? Any foregone tax revenue from the nicotine patch will be made back many times over in reduced health care costs down the line. Hopefully Ottawa will follow suit.

Smokers trying to quit are getting a break as the provincial government scraps its 8 per cent sales tax on over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy and challenges Ottawa to remove the GST.

The Ontario measures take effect Aug. 13 and will save consumers about $5 million a year on nicotine patches, inhalers, gum, lozenges, sprays and tablets, Health Promotion Minister Jim Watson said.

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You can take the boy out of the West...

...but you can't take the West out of the boy. I think that's evidenced by my first gut reaction to this story...

Ontario has more than doubled its estimate of the number of seats it believes it should be allocated under proposed federal legislation to expand the House of Commons.

...which was something along the lines of "dammed greedy Ontario jerks, let them freeze in the dark," even though I live here now too. I guess I'm a self-hating Ontarioin. I blame it though on that super-annoying tourism commercial they play before movies, "there's no place like this where I've been, ohhh ohhhh....." Whatever happened to "Ontari-ari-ario?"

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