Choose your own confidence week adventure

As a follower of Canadian politics, I've ceased being surprised by the regular swings in the supposed consensus opinion in Canadian politics. Every pundit and politico will know something to be the case one day (election for sure) and then the next day they'll all know the opposite (election, no way). I've ceased being surprised by the regular 180s in consensus opinion, but I am still amused by how fervently they all claim to know it. Sure, we believed the opposite yesterday, and may flip back tomorrow, but today we're certain, dagnabbit!

I don't have the energy to research it, but it would be amusing to chart the swings in election consensus over just, say, the last three months. It would look like the rocky mountains, no doubt, or a heart monitor. As I write this Tuesday evening it's election no-way, but by breakfast on budget Tuesday it may have changed, so stay by the news ticker for updates. But apparently the current consensus began forming when politicians didn't act like total a-holes in question period this afternoon, and solidified with evening budget leaks on NDP-friendly items.

The fact is, no one knows for sure what is going to happen and any supposed expert that claims otherwise is lying, but there's certainly enough pieces of information out there to allow you to cherrypick ones to fit your desired conclusion and south authoritative.

Let's take it by party, shall we?

Conservatives:

Big lead in the polls, they want to go now.

Mounting scandals, no way do they want to go.

Mounting scandals, they want to go before they can solidify and things get worse.

NDP-friendly budget leaks sign CPC wants to deal.

NDP-friendly budget leaks clever ruse to set the cat among the NDP canaries on budget eve, actual budget won't be palatable.

Liberals:

Well behind in the polls, why would they want to go now? It's a bluff.

Can't get ahead in polls pre-writ, may as well go now, it's not a bluff.

Mounting scandals make this the window, go now on ethics.

Mounting scandals will heighten if explored in committee, wait and drive down numbers.

NDP

Reasonable-sounding budget demands show they want to make parliament work, don't want election.

They don't expect demands to be met, just want to appear reasonable, they want an election.

They feel if they can get concessions their base will support them propping up government, they'll take what they get and call it victory.

They know their base won't accept them supporting the government, no way they will.

Listen to Jack Layton, no election.

Listen to Thomas Mulcair, election.

BQ

They're doing well in the polls, they want to go now.

They're doing well in the polls, they're cool with waiting until whenever.

No way would Harper ever buy off the separatists.

Meh, if it's good for Quebec...

For what it's worth, here's my uninformed two cents.

I think the Conservatives aren't as eager for an election as they may have been a few weeks ago, but they won't go out of their way to avoid one either. They'll toss a few goodies to the NDP, but they won't be major and won't meet all their demands. If the NDP bites, fine, and if they don't they're fine with going to the polls, they like their chances and the ethics things could get worse with time.

I think the Liberals have decided they have to get out of the cycle of propping these guys up and if that means an election, so be it. But they can't pretend to be an opposition anymore while regularly voting confidence. So they'll vote no (their budget demand of reversing corporate tax hikes will never be met) and take their chances. If the NDP props up the Cons, fine, they'll have as much fun with that as the NDP did when we were doing it, and keep hammering on ethics. And if it means an election, we'll finally be on an equal footing for the media cycle and ad spend and, as the saying goes, campaigns matter so anything can happen.

The BQ presented such a long and ridiculous list of budget demands it's hard to take seriously the prospect of them supporting the government on confidence. A deal on HST harmonization might give them pause, but if I were the Conservatives I'd rather have that as a promise to campaign on, rather than wait potentially a year and remind them of that billion-dollar payday. it's a big ticket item to give away when other suitors are cheaper dates. The BQ are in great position in the polls, with the potential for pick-ups, particularly in the Quebec City area. I think they vote no, but if HST money is actually in the budget (word tonight is that it's not) they may waver.

I think the NDP is more of a wildcard, because I don't think they know what they're going to do yet at this point. I think internally the party is torn. Look at polling and an election doesn't make much sense for them (nor does it for anyone, really) but certain incumbents are vulnerable. And Jack Layton is recovering from serious health issues; he's a gamer so he'll answer the bell but it's not ideal at all. I think there's a camp that wants to take what the Conservatives give and call it a making parliament work victory, whether it actually is or not (the Liberals demand and got billions in stimulus, didn't work out well for them and the NDP weren't impressed). Call them the pragmatists. And then there's the idealists, who couldn't stomach truck or trade with a Harper government they fundamentally and deeply dislike and disagree with on every level, and are adamantly opposed to supporting Harper no matter what the give.

I think at this point it's on the NDP, and I think at this point the jury is out. If I was forced to put money on it, I'd say they don't support the government, and we'll have an election. I've been surprised before, though. But to decide to prop them up, in the wake of the mounting ethical dramas, would be a bitter pill for their supporters to swallow. It would invalidate their years of messaging (they baked a cake to celebrate the Liberals propping up the Cons). And it wouldn't be a one-time thing. They'd either have to abstain or vote against the contempt findings, or explain why they're supporting a government they believe to be in contempt. Their attacks on any number of issues would ring hollow. It would mean eating a lot of crap sandwiches, for monts and months of budget implementation bills and who knows what other curve balls the Cons may throw. As a Liberal who has been there trust me, it really, really sucks. And I can't imagine doing it when, for the first time in Canadian history, not just one but two contempt findings are before the house. "Well sure, they're in contempt of the house and basic democratic principles, but we got some money for making homes more efficient, so..."

So, tonight I still believe we go this week, but not as strongly as I did yesterday. And I reserve the right to change my mind again tomorrow and believe the exact opposite. And with authority.

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Quiet! Harper the economist is speaking!

Shhh!. Stephen Harper, economist extraordinaire, is speaking! Let's all listen:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said today he will balance the federal government’s budget after the recession ends without reducing program spending or raising taxes.

Harper also said he will “never” cut money transfers to provinces, which are largely used to fund health care spending. He spoke to reporters in a televised press conference in Quebec City.

“At the end of this recession, we will go back to a balanced position and there is no need to cut program spending or increase taxes in order to accomplish that,” Harper said. “The Conservative government will never cut transfers to the provinces.”

So, if you're scoring at home, Harper is promising a budget deficit that his government vastly underestimated (and still does), a structural deficit that pre-dates the downturn, will be magically balanced without raising taxes, without cutting program spending, and without cutting transfer payments.

Either Harper, who is an economist don't you know, has some sort of economist budget balancing magic wand, or he's planning to get the hell outta dodge before the bills come due.

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Stephen Harper and deficits

Stephen Harper has come a long way on deficits in less than two months.

October 7, 2008:

He also ruled out running a deficit during any years of a Conservative mandate, a day after appearing to soften his stance on emergency spending.

"I think I was asked one question whether I would run a deficit and I said no. That's my answer," he told reporters after his speech.

November 22, 2008:

“...budgetary deficits are essential.”

In the second article, Harper goes on to tout his credentials as an economist. One wonders what kind of economist would, a month and a half after declaring no deficits and touting good buying opportunities on the markets, would compare this economic crisis to the Great Depression:

"The financial crisis has become an economic crisis, and the world is entering an economic period unlike, and potentially as dangerous, as anything we have faced since 1929," Harper said in an address.

Not a very good economist, I think. Or maybe just one who was running for re-election at the time.

Still, lots of bargains on the markets these days.

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Harper's $8.8 billion spending spree

As the Canadian Press reports, Stephen Harper's Conservative government is on a pre-election speding-spree. The Canadian Taxpayer's Federation tallies the running total at some $8.8 billion, with 2 days to go:

The Conservative government, which is on the verge of launching a national election campaign, has pledged $8.8-billion as part of 293 announcements in the last three months, according to figures released Friday by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

...

Over the last number of weeks, the government has issued a myriad spending announcements - such as $80-million to help revive a mothballed auto engine plant in Windsor, Ont.; $2.9-million aimed at helping organic spinach farmers; and $2,000 for a festival in Shag Harbour, N.S., to commemorate a 1967 UFO sighting. Those announcements continue today and are expected to continue up until Sunday morning.

"I wouldn't want to be a government bookkeeper when the waves of spending receipts from July and August crash into the finance department," Mr. Williamson said. "Of course, taxpayers will be even more distraught, and some livid, since they are responsible for paying the government's bills."

Now, of course all governments do this sort of thing. I recall Paul Martin rang-up a hefty bill in 2005 that was one for the record books. He said at the time this was all stuff already in the pipe, and with the opposition forcing an election they had to rush it out. Partly true, I'm sure, and partly pure electioneering. And the Conservatives say now much the same thing, that all this spending was booked in the last budget, although the CTF seems concerned this may slide us unto deficit.

Anyway, pre-election spending sprees are to governments as coffee is to Tim Horton's. Nevertheless, as it often is with the Conservative Party, the issue here is really the difference between their rhetoric and their reality. They were vehemently opposed to this kind of thing before. They'd never do it, they said:

"The Liberal party thinks public money is a party election fund," said Harper.

He said it's hard to take the government seriously when it promises billions of new dollars for everything from residential school compensation to new planes for the air force.

"Since most of these announcements aren't funded in any of the three budgets the Liberals tabled this year, why should anyone believe these promises?" Harper said.

That was 2005, though. Things have changed.

Now they held the pursestrings.

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Saturday afternoon stats

While the Conservative attack machine likes to use out of context statements to misrepresent Liberals as big spenders, the facts don’t lie: it’s the Conservatives that are shoveling taxpayer dollars out of the back of a truck at unprecedented levels:


The numbers speak for themselves. And what’s more, despite massively ramping-up spending the Harper Conservatives are cutting back in the areas that are priorities to Canadians, and have made petty ideological cuts, such as to the Status of Women and the Court Challenges Program.

Hopefully by the time Jim Flaherty is done spending like a drunken sailor, and waging a campaign against the province that is the engine of the country’s economy, he won’t have left too big a mess for the next fiscally prudent Liberal government to clean-up.

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