Ignore the shiny Senate distraction: It really is the economy, and Harper things you're stupid

The National Post's John Ivison makes a good living floating trial balloons and framing announcements on behalf of The Harper Government, so his offering Thursday night certainly got the attention of official Ottawa:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall are expected to appear together Friday to call for the abolition of the Senate, according to a source familiar with their plans.

Now, if you believe that Harper woke up and decided to get serious about the Senate after a decade of doing nothing to reform or get rid of it -- besides appointing a rogue's gallery of hacks, bagman and characters now answering to the justice system or under active investigation -- then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. And if you think, after a decade of avoiding the provincial premiers like he owes then child support, that he's going to jump into months/years of intensive federal/provincial negotiations, then I'll throw in the Empire State building.

No, Harper did not suddenly find religion on the Senate after a decade in power. What he found was these headlines as he gears up to run for reelection:

• Feds To Run $1B Deficit Based On Bank Of Canada Forecast: PBO
• Effects of slumping dollar showing up on price tags
• Canada Stocks Drop to Six-Month Low as Commodity Slump Persists
• Loonie closes at lowest level in more than a decade

So what is a Prime Minister who has tied his re-election to his competent economic management do when his jury-rigged balanced budget turns into his ninth straight budget deficit? Well, after blaming Justin Trudeau, Tom Mulcair and Greece didn't work, distracting the media and the public with cheap populism on Senate reform.

Let's be clear: according to the Supreme Court, abolishing the Senate would require a constitutional amendment and the unanimous support of the provinces. Putting aside the fact that abolition is a bad idea, the last thing the Canada needs is for federal and provincial governments to spend the next two years focusing on the constitution instead of the economy. Canadians don't want Meech Lake Redux; last time, Meech birthed the Reform Party and the Bloc Quebecois and got the ball rolling on another referendum in Quebec.

Canadians want economic opportunity, job prospects, and the chance to build a better life for their children, not a constitutional sideshow.

Once Harper and Wall throw a shiny red ball in front of Canadians Friday, both the NDP and the Conservatives will be on record offering Canadians years of distracting constitutional drama. And unless it involves all the first ministers living in the same house and a bachelorette giving them roses and kicking one out every week, Canadians don't have an appetite for that.

The truth is, the Harper Conservatives have no answers for Canadians on the economy, and their credibility for economic is in tatters.

Don't let Harper change the channel. Now, more than ever, it's the economy, stupid. And the Liberals have the opportunity to be the only major party offering Canadians what Harper once said he was all about: a laser focus on the economy. It's not about constitutional reform; it's about middle-class families.

Please don't wade into the constitutional muck, Liberals. Keep your eyes on the prize: it's the economy. It always has been.

UPDATE: The Conservatives apparently changed their minds sometime between Ivison's story and the scheduled announcement. Instead, Harper promised to appoint no (more) Senators. He promised the same in 2006, and then went on to appoint 56.

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Harper links Japanese earthquake and tsunami to election timing

Stephen Harper spoke to the press in Vancouver today, and they were allowed to ask questions. Here's one of his answers (emphasis mine):

CONTINUE WITH EMILY CHIN FROM FAIRCHILD.

Question: PRIME MINISTER, REGARDING THE EARTHQUAKE HAPPENING IN JAPAN, AS WE KNOW, JAPAN IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR TRADE PARTNERS. I'M JUST WONDERING YOUR CONCERN ABOUT ANY IMPACTS ON OUR ECONOMY.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper: WELL, WE'RE OBVIOUSLY LOOKING AT ALL THOSE THINGS VERY CAREFULLY. OUR FIRST CONCERN, IN FAIRNESS, IS WITH, YOU KNOW, ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST THEIR LIVES AND OBVIOUSLY ALL OF THEIR FAMILIES AND LITERALLY AT THIS POINT TENS OF THOUSANDS, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WHO ARE HOMELESS. SO OUR FIRST CONCERN AS A GOVERNMENT IS ANYTHING WE CAN DO TO HELP JAPANESE AUTHORITIES COPE WITH THIS CRISIS. NOW, JAPAN IS A WEALTHY COUNTRY. JAPAN IS A WELL ORGANIZED COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ITS OWN RESOURCES TO RESPOND TO THESE KINDS OF PROBLEMS, BUT, AS I SAID EARLIER, WE'VE MADE IT VERY CLEAR TO THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT THERE'S A RANGE OF VARIOUS SERVICES OR SUPPLIES THAT WE COULD OFFER IF SO DESIRED, AND I GATHER THERE'S A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT THEY WILL CALL UPON US TO ASSIST THEM WITH. THAT IS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS. OBVIOUSLY WE'RE ALL WATCHING THE NUCLEAR SITUATION, YOU KNOW, WITH I THINK QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN. SO WE'RE JUST TRYING TO BE HELPFUL IN THAT REGARD. I DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON US. OBVIOUSLY, THOUGH, YOU SEE THE DROPS IN THE STOCK MARKET. ALL OF THESE THINGS SHOULD REMIND EVERYBODY -- SHOULD REMIND EVERYBODY IN CANADA AND SHOULD REMIND ALL THE PARTIES IN PARLIAMENT THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY REMAINS EXTREMELY FRAGILE. IT DOES NOT TAKE VERY MUCH TO MAKE US ALL, AND NOT JUST IN CANADA, THE UNITED STATES, ALL AROUND THE WORLD, TO MAKE EVERYBODY VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT'S COMING NEXT IN THE ECONOMY. WE'VE BEEN THROUGH A DIFFICULT TIME. IT'S GETTING BETTER, BUT IT'S STILL QUITE FRAGILE. SO I DON'T WANT TO PREDICT HOW THAT'S GOING TO UNFOLD. I THINK THE JAPANESE WILL FIND THEIR WAY OF COPING, BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THIS SHOULD BE A WAKEUP THAT WE CANNOT AFFORD TO TAKE OUR FOCUS OFF THE ECONOMY AND GET IN TO A BUNCH OF UNNECESSARY POLITICAL GAMES OR, AS I SAID, AN OPPORTUNISTIC AND UNNECESSARY ELECTION THAT NOBODY IS ASKING FOR.

Yes, why not use a question about the Japanese earthquake and tsunami that has killed thousands, and triggered a still ongoing nuclear crisis, to score domestic political points against your opponents? And just what is he claiming? That an election could cause an earthquake? Take our eyes off the economy for one minute and the earth could shake? And as for all this focus on the economy, let's remember that Harper called the 2008 election just as the economic downturn was beginning to become clear. Of course, the great economist assured us then that if we were going to have a downturn at that point, we'd have had one already. So what does he know?

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Is it health care, stupid? The issues Canadians care about

With the caveat that all polling should be taken with grains of salt (particularly those with findings I don't like) Nanos has some interesting new numbers on the issues that Canadians are ranking as their top concerns.

He lists five that are at the top of the list, with the change from December 2010 in brackets:

Health care: 22.9% (+2.2%)

Economy/Jobs: 20.2% (-2.1%)

The environment: 10.3% (+2.3%)

Education: 5.4% (-)

Debt/deficit: 5.2% (+o.4%)

I'm going to focus on the top two, because I think they represent compelling choices for the Liberals and Conservatives.

It's widely-held (but unfortunate based on the historical evidence) that when economic management is the issue, the Conservatives tend to do better. It's not just in Canada, and it's just one of those things. Not saying we should cede this ground, just that we should start with that reality recognized.

That's why we see the Conservatives trying to shift the debate and discussion these days to the economy: if they can frame the debate on economy and jobs, they see that as ground on which they can succeed. If that's the ballot question, they feel Canadians will turn to them.

That's why we see statements chiding the opposition to focus on the economy, calling the recovery in jeopardy, warning opposition shenanigans could put jobs in jeopardy. They're folding corporate tax cuts into this as well: raising them will cost jobs, they warn. On the other side, there's last week's cross-country stimulus re-announcement tour, and the millions in PMO-directed economic action plan ads.

It's a simple recipe: stoke a little fear on the economy to make the issue of more concern to Canadians, then paint your opponents as dangerous on the issue and tout your own record of achievement, positioning yourselves as the logical, and safe choice. Clearly, the Conservatives want an economic debate: they feel on solid ground there.

But as the Nanos numbers show, the economy/jobs isn't the only issue that is of top concern to Canadians. Indeed, by just a few points, it's not even the top concern currently. Their top concern is actually health care.

Despite health care being consistently at or near the top of concerning issues for Canadians, you don't hear a lot of the parties in Ottawa talking about it. Certainly not the Conservatives, and with good reason: if the economy/jobs are a Conservative issue, health care tends to be more of a Liberal issues. Which means there is an opportunity here for the Liberals to seize the day by addressing the concerns of Canadians on health care, and highlighting Conservative inaction on the file (remember wait times, the infamously forgotten fifth Harper priority?).

We have seen some selected health-care relates initiatives from the Liberals so far. The signature Liberal policy proposal to date, the Family Care Plan, speaks to helping Canadians support ill loved ones. Also related are proposals around ways to attract more doctors and nurses to under-served rural areas, and a national food policy to promote healthy living.

It's a pretty good start. What's needed is unifying messaging around a vision for health care in the 21st century, analysis and criticism of Conservative failure on the file, and a concerted effort to elevate the profile of the health care issue in the national debate.

As I said, I'm not arguing we cede the economy/jobs issue to the Conservatives; far from it. We have a good story to tell on this issue, there are Conservative vulnerabilities, and our policy on corporate taxes is the right one for the times. Don't give them an inch.

But we should also try to raise the profile and shift the debate towards health care, an issue that isn't just a good Liberal issue, but also the issue Canadians are most concerned about. The Conservatives want to change the channel to the economy. Let's try to fight from what, for us, is a position of strength.

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Thinking about: Education

We bloggers are usually quite good at identifying the problems, myself included. That’s easy enough to do. I’ve long kvetched about the Liberal Party’s focus on the tactical and the scandal while ignoring the strategic, the policy, the vision thing. Over the next little while, in the lead-up to the much hyped Thinker’s Thingamajig, I’m going to try offering some suggestions on that front.

First up in this series, I’d like to mention education. Long-time readers will know education is an issue I’ve long been concerned about and have long been writing about. And I continue to believe education is a fundamentally core issue that is critical to the success and future health and prosperity of our country, and is of great importance to Canadians. It’s an issue area in which the Liberal Party must absolutely claim a visionary, forward-thinking leadership role.

Perhaps uniquely, education plays across so many other issue areas. Want a strong, competitive economy? You need an educated workforce. Want to fight child poverty? Education goes a long way to lifting families out of poverty. Improved health care? You need more trained doctors, nurses, technicians. Improved standard of living? Compete internationally? New jobs and industries? Going green? Education underpins it all.

And education is only becoming more important in the 21st century. We can’t compete with emerging economies on the price of our labour. We have to compete with our brains, and yet we’re falling behind the world. Companies such as Cisco Systems are opening facilities and moving jobs to place such as India not for labour cost, but for skilled workers. China and India and other emerging economic powerhouses are investing in their education systems, and it is paying results. Jobs will go where the brains are, and with the jobs go economic prosperity.

We need to make it easier for Canadians to attend post-secondary education, be it university, college or skilled trades. Not harder. And we should ensure that we no longer burden them with crippling, life-long debt loads in the process. We need to increase government investment in post-secondary education, and we need to begin to look at it not as a cost centre, but as an investment.

Because that’s what it is. A more educated Canadian will find a better job, earn a better salary, and pay higher taxes to the government. They may even create their own business, paying business taxes and creating jobs for other taxpaying Canadians. They’re also less likely to be a drain on government services. In short, our investment in the education of our citizens will pay great dividends. We get back our investment many times.

Let’s be bold. Why can’t we explore free undergrad or college tuition for every Canadian? Or a lifetime entitlement for XX hours of skill training for every Canadian? If not, we should at least consider it for certain targeted professions and skills that are highly in demand.

At the very least, we need to throw out a student loan system that is fundamentally flawed and build something that works. It's become a commercial money-making venture for banks. That's wrong. Far better would be interest-free loans or, better yet, do away with loans all together for a system of bursaries.

We need to work with the provinces, who have constitutional responsibility for education, to rethink the system and ensure that national standards are maintained and that any funding increases do filter down to the universities students and aren’t eaten up by the provinces. And colleges and trades training must absolutely be a critical part of the discussion.

It goes wider than just this though. Too many immigrants come to Canada with skills we need but aren’t able to get work in their fields. Foreign credential recognition has long been a swampy topic. The Conservative government recently made some progress on this topic. We need to build and expand on that.

And education also needs to begin, well, at the beginning, with early learning and childcare. Studies show children that set out on the right path early develop a life-long love of learning, and will go on to greater success and prosperity in their lives.

After many years, the previous Liberal government under Paul Martin, thanks to the hard work of Ken Dryden, had finally made a good start on this front, negotiating long-term agreements with many of the provinces. Unfortunately, that work has been abandoned by the current government in favour of a flawed tax-credit system. With the Liberal funding agreements now ending we’re seeing just how flawed: precious child care spaces are disappearing.

We need to pick up that squandered momentum and make early childhood learning and childcare a priority once again. But we can’t stop there. We need to acknowledge that what we had proposed earlier was incomplete. Flexibility, and options for those who wish to stay at home to care for their children, or have a family member do so, must be built into the system. Choice is crucial.

Finally, it’s all well and good to have high-minded discussion about the importance of education in broad strokes. We also need to bring it down to the ground and make it understandable and saleable. We’ve always been good at the idealism in the past, but the Conservatives have kicked our asses on the realism, on the distilling it into something people can relate to.

We need a package of proposals and initiatives that will not only make the systemic reforms we need, but will have an impact in the daily lives of Canadians: such as XX lifetime hours of free skill training, or free tuition, and so on. Make it relatable and understandable if it’s going to be successful.

Otherwise, it really will just be an academic gabfest, and we don’t need one of those.

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Job losses are escalating, so Cons blow-up EI reform

The headlines tell the tale:

Still no sign of economic recovery in July jobs numbers as 45,000 disappear
July job losses point to difficult recovery
Canada lost 45,000 jobs in July: Statistics Canada
Canada July Jobs Loss Triple Economists' Forecasts
Canada bleeds more jobs in July, recovery in doubt
Job losses deeper than feared

And directly from Statistics Canada:

Following little change in June, employment declined by 45,000 in July, with losses in both full- and part-time work. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.6%, as fewer people participated in the labour market.

So it sure is a good thing the Conservatives made clear this week they have no intention of getting serious about reforming the EI system to help the 400,000 Canadians that have now lost their jobs since Stephen Harper's Conservatives were re-elected.

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GritGirl video: The job losses continue

Looks like GritGirl is back, updating her classic job losses video in light of today's worse than expected numbers:

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Day vs. Flaherty: Who ya gonna believe on the economy?

Now is the time when we compare and contrast at Small De..., er BCer in Toronto:

Jim Flaherty:

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says it might be premature to declare an end to Canada's recession.

The minister made the remarks Tuesday on his way into a Conservative caucus meeting.

"No, I think we will have to look back as we always do, and look at this quarter," Flaherty said when asked whether he agreed with the Bank of Canada's most recent assessment of the economy.

Stockwell Day:

I'm not kidding. The recession is over. Now I realize some of you may be saying, "hey, who gave Stockwell Day the right to say the recession is over?'

Strictly speaking, nobody gave me the right to say a recession had started, let alone declare it was finished. There is actually a technical definition which says if a certain number of measurable economic indicators are not met over a certain period of time, then, presto!, we're in a recession.

However, if those same economic goal posts are reached over a certain period of time then somebody can declare just as categorically that the recession has ended. In Canada's case that 'somebody' happens to be the Governor of the Bank of Canada.

Now, I know Flaherty is the finance minister and everything, whereas Day is good with a jet ski. Still, I feel like Stock has just a little more credibility on economic matters than Jimbo these days.

So I don't know who to believe...

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UK Tories turn to Canada for economic advice

But David Cameron's Tories aren't looking to their Harper Conservative cousins for advice on dealing with debt and deficit. No, they're looking to the Liberal Party of Canada:

As a younger Gordon Brown was bolting the New in front of Labour in the mid-Nineties, he made frequent schoolboyish field trips across the Atlantic to study the slick campaign and policy lessons from Bill Clinton's victories in the US. This is the stuff of opposition, to learn from those who have blazed a trail you want to follow – and also to lodge in the public consciousness back home the idea that, yes, you are destined to follow them.

So it is that the Tories are obsessing about another North American political success story, that of the Canadian Liberal Party, which swept to power in 1993 and proceeded to implement the biggest reduction in government spending in the country's history, eliminating a crippling C$42bn (£22bn) budget deficit in just four years. The international acclaim was raucous: The Wall Street Journal had proclaimed Canada "an honorary member of the Third World" in 1993, when its national debt was heading towards a peak of 72 per cent of the size of the economy; in 1998, Paul Martin, the finance minister, was heralded by Business Week magazine for having produced "a maple leaf miracle". The centrist Liberal Party went on to further electoral success – and Mr Martin inherited the prime minister's office. No wonder the Conservatives are salivating.

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(Video) Tony Clement on deck to defend the government

It seems the Conservatives have designed Tony Clement as their go-to talking head to take the bulk of the media interviews yesterday and today about the election speculation and the four questions Michael Ignatieff wants answered by Stephen Harper ahead of Friday's confidence vote/s.

This video is Clement's interview yesterday evening on CTV's PowerPlay program. I thought Tom Clark gave him a pretty through grilling on why the government can't just cough-up the numbers that Canadians have a right to know anyways, and questioning the validity of Clement and the government's claims they can still get the country out of deficit in five years.

Clement looked like a dear in the headlights at times, although all in all I thought he did reasonably well with a bad script, managed to keep his composure, and offered what may at a brief glance seem like a reasonable explanation. On a closer look though, not so much.

The deficit has ballooned since the January budget to over $50 billion, yet the government is still sticking to its five-year out of deficit plan. With a much bigger than forecast deficit it doesn't make sense, right? Clement says it does, because revenues are going to be EVEN HIGHER than forecast in the budget, therefore increased revenues cancel out the increased deficit and the five-year plan is maintained.

Except I find that very hard to believe. Clement says private sector economists are now revising their revenue projections upward. Which ones? Because I recall private sector economists saying Jim Flaherty's budget revenue projections were grossly optimistic. Now we're to believe they've actually vastly underestimated revenues, despite massively underestimating the deficit?

The economists at TD Bank, for one, still say the government's numbers are way off. On next year's deficit, for example, TD says Flaherty is underestimating the deficit by $15 billion. That's a $15 billion hole in the Conservative 5-year plan they haven't explained away yet. Over the next five years, TD projects a deficit DOUBLE what Flaherty forecast in the budget. And Tony Clement wants us to seriously believe revenues are going to increase so much they'll easily cover off that? It doesn't pass the smell test, Tony.

And then there's the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Kevin Page, who has a far better record so far that Flaherty on these matters. Page says the only way to get there in five years is to cut spending, raise taxes, or both. Flaherty says pishaw.

Clement does, at least, say sure, we'll release our numbers. I'm sure they'll make for creative reading.

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(Video) Michael Ignatieff's press conference, and interview with Don Newman

Michael Ignatieff's statement during his press conference this morning. One thing I want to clear-up that some seem to be confused about. He made this clear in the Q&A, which I didn't include for time reasons. But it's not enough for the Conservatives to just report on these four areas: we have to like the answers. If we don't, he made clear he's fully prepared to vote against the estimates on Friday.



And here's Ignatieff's interview with Don Newman on CBC's Politics broadcast this evening.

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Morning coffee and economic indicators

*The Royal Bank says the Canadian economy will shrink by 2.4 per cent this year, due in part to the substantial 5.4 per cent annual GDP contraction in the first quarter.

That's the worst quarterly economic performance since 1991 and likely the worst in the current recession.

*A new forecast by RBC Economics suggests the Ontario economy may contract by 3.4 per cent this year.

The report cites difficulties in the manufacturing sector, weak external demand for Ontario's products and continued job losses.

The RBC report says the "path ahead for the Ontario economy is fraught with uncertainty,'' especially in the automotive and manufacturing sectors.

*Manufacturing sales edged down 0.1 per cent to $41 billion in April.

Statistics Canada reports manufacturing sales leveled off between February and April, after falling by 18.7 per cent between October 2008 and January 2009.

The agency says a 16.4 per cent gain in the transportation equipment industry was offset by weakness in other industries.

Excluding the transportation equipment industry, manufacturing sales decreased 2.8 per cent.

*The number of new motor vehicles sold remained essentially unchanged in April at 121,290, following a strong increase in March.

Statistics Canada reports April sales were eight per cent higher than those reported in December 2008, when new motor vehicles sold were at their lowest level in 10 years.

Preliminary industry data for May indicate that the number of new motor vehicles sold was up about one per cent from April.

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Video: Harper's infomercial

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Let's go

This is certainly shaping-up to be a test of Paul Wells' law of political Ottawa, which holds that if everyone in Ottawa knows something, it must NOT be true. And as I scan the headlines everyone, including Paul, seems convinced there won't be an election this summer and that the Liberals will find some way to live with the Harper Sham-Wow Fiscal Report. So, if the Wells law holds there WILL be an election and his column will have been wrong, but if there is no election his law will have failed.

But seriously, what do I think? I dunno. I gave up trying to predict the strategies of Liberal leaders some years back. And while putting my finger to the electoral winds while in Ottawa last week, I didn't detect a strong current one way or another.

So I can only say what I would do, and I say it's time we stop supporting this government. If that means an election, so be it. But they no longer deserve our support, and we need to withdraw it.

And it's not just this Made for TV infomercial they produced yesterday, which had more spin than the Smart Spin Storage system. They're fudging the numbers and their 80% of stimulus flowing number is a crock. Just listen to the mayors from coast-to-coast last week at the Federation of Canadian Municipalities meeting in Whistler that complained the stimulus wasn't getting to their communities and they were missing the summer construction season. If they had a real journalist up there instead of the Duffster they'd have asked if it is flowing, Mr. Harper, where the hell is it?

But it goes deeper. There's the biggest deficit in Canadian history, thanks to both Conservative fiscal incompetence and their expressed goal of strangling government revenues to fulfill their right-wing ideological mission to strangle the size of government to remove the ability of future governments to play an active, activist role in society. The GST cuts alone, which provided 0 stimulus, cost the government $30 billion/year. What would the Liberals have done differently? We would have maintained the contingency reserve, for one, and we would have chosen tax cuts that actually have reached Canadians that need them, and would have had stimulative effect. The deficit need not have been this big. We would also be truthful in our budgeting, and wouldn't hide the size of the deficit from Canadians as Jim Flaherty has done.

There's the fact the Conservatives had to be dragged kicking and screaming into action on the economy. They refused to acknowledge the coming economic tsunami. They said if there would be a recession, we'd have had it already. They said there'd be no deficit. Instead of bringing-in stimulus, in their fall update they tried to strangle their political opponents. Only the treat of losing power prompted them to action. Those missed months have been very costly to the economy, to unemployed workers, and to the pace of any recovery.

There's the fact they refuse to consider meaningful action on employment insurance reform, ignoring the growing call from a majority of parliamentarians and an increasing number of provinces, including more conservative provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC.

They've bungled the Chalk River file leading to a medical isotope crisis, while the performance of Lisa Raitt, her day-later apology notwithstanding, demonstrates an unfortunate lack of compassion for what Canadians are going through.

We're a laggard and a reluctant follower on the environment, our standing on the world stage continues to diminish, and the courts have to routinely step in to tell this Conservative government that it has a duty to protect its citizens, even the ones it doesn't like.

Enough is enough. Do I think a summer election is ideal? Not at all, although I do think predictions of a backlash are overstated. I would, if I had my druthers frankly, prefer the fall. A little more time for fundraising and candidate recruitment would be helpful. And the polls are still quite tight.

Frankly, I'm still not convinced that the NDP and the BQ, despite their comments yesterday, will let it go to an election. If they do, fine, we're ready. But either way, if this government is to survive it should have to be someone else from now on.

The only question we should be asking ourselves is can we support this government? Does it deserve our support? I feel the answer is a firm no. We must state clearly and unequivocally that we will no longer be supporting this government. If that means an election, so be it. We're ready. Bring it on.

It's time to revoke this government's probation.

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363,000 Canadians have lost their jobs since Harper's re-election

Some sobering numbers today fromStatistics Canada:

* The Canadian job market lost 42,000 jobs in May
* The unemployment rate jumped 0.4% to 8.4%, its highest level in 11 years
* In Ontario, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4%, its highest level in 15 years

And since October, since the last election, where Stephen "lassiez faire I don't care" Harper promised if there was going to be a recession it would have happened already and said we should trust him because he's an economist, the Canadian economy has retracted by 2.1 per cent and 363,000 jobs have been lost.

And the government isn't helping. Municipalities are complaining they have "shovel-ready" projects ready to go, but the Harper Conservatives are stalling on the cash:

But so far, cities have not received the cash they need to break ground, Carl Zehr, mayor of Kitchener, Ont., said on Thursday at the annual Federation of Canadian Municipalities conference in Whistler, B.C. “Our shovels are ready, and we're simply waiting for the money,” he said.

Three months have come and gone without any cash flowing, a delay long enough that it likely precludes any project starting this summer, other mayors said. “This construction season is virtually lost,” Toronto Mayor David Miller said.

Harper and Jim "$50 billion deficit" Flaherty warned stimulus funds had to be out the door within 120 days to be effective. That deadline passed last week, and with only 6% out the door, their effort can only be termed a massive failure.

UPDATE: The headlines tell the tale:

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50 billion reasons why Pierre Poilievre hasn't apologized

I really don't think Pierre Poilievre is a racist. I do think he's a moron, but he's not a racist moron. He's also not an idiot, and with this whole “tar baby” controversy he's serving a very real purpose for the Conservatives right now: he has us talking about what an moron Pierre Poilievre is instead of the Conservatives' $50 billion deficit, the economy, and the growing call for action across the country on employment insurance reform.

Now, I don't know if Poilievre either didn't genuinely know the racial connotations of the term, or just intended to stir the pot through its use. If it was just genuine misunderstanding, the logical thing to do would be to just apologize, to say yeah, I didn't know what it meant, I didn't intend it in that context, I withdraw it, Liberals suck. End of story.

That would be the logical strategy. Instead, Poilievre, along with the PMO communications apparatus and his cabinet colleagues, have decided to stand and fight for the right to use terms with clear and obvious racial connotations. Seems like a weird decision, right?

Not necessarily. Whether Poilievre's use of the term was innocent or it was a plant, this has given the Conservatives to distract attention away from the economy, away from the biggest deficit, and onto Poilievre's being a moron. It has caused quite the media brouhaha, and it has certainly distracted the blogsphere.

And like a good team player, Poilievre is willing to take the hit. After all, we all already know he's a moron anyway. He also won his riding by a massive plurality, so he needn't worry there.

Let's not buy into the Conservatives' attempt to change the channel. Poilievre being a moron is old news.

What isn't old news is a $50 billion deficit that Jim Flaherty insisted just one month ago would be much, much smaller. What isn't old news is Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall joining BC's Gordon Campbell, Alberta's Ed Stemlach and Ontario's Dalton McGuinty in calling for EI reform, calls Stephen Harper has not only denied but openly ridiculed.

Actually, if there is one lesson to take from this, it's that they must really be freaked-out about their massive deficit, about their arrogant inaction on EI, about the economy and its potential to hurt them, if they're willing to go to the wall to defend their right to use racially-charged language. You can almost smell the desperation.

So, let's remember. Yes, you're a moron, but it's still the economy, Pierre.

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Stephen Harper: we need to raise taxes!!

Yes, it's true. Stephen Harper says the Conservatives will raise taxes! Que the incessant attacks against how now... Here's the quote, by Harper, from today's question period:

we need to raise taxes

Scandal! Shame! Outrage! And so on! Clearly, now the Liberals must mention this every time they ask a question in the HoC, use it on every member's statement, and repeat the line relentlessly every time they see a microphone.

What's that? You want the context? Context, shmontext, he says we need to raise taxes! He's a heathen, that's all that matters. Taxes!!

Ok, fine, here's the full exchange. Party pooper:

Hon. John mccallum (l): So the implication of what the prime minister said is to agree with the liberal party and increase ei. I would also suggest that both the prime minister and the minister of finance subscribe to an excellent publication entitled "deficits for dummies." It might help them come to some understanding. But my question to the finance minister is, canadians want to see the colour of your money. The deficits are soaring. The deficits are soaring. The promises are soaring. But we're seeing nothing invested in communities and canadians aren't seeing any jobs created.

The speaker: The right honourable prime minister.

Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada: Mr. Speaker, let's be clear: When we did our pre-budget consultations, the liberal party wanted two more weeks of employment insurance. So, mr. Speaker, we gave five more weeks of employment insurance, plus all kinds of additional money for training for people both on ei and not on ei. These are measures to help the unemployed in this recession. What we're not going to do is every two or three months come up with another economic policy, another budget until we need to go into -- until we need to raise taxes. Our deficits are affordable, but they will remain short-term.

Context, shomtext. He said "we need to raise taxes"! To the barricades! Rawwwr, and what not!

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PS. Check-out my entry for the YLC's positive politics ad challenge, "Is this your Canada?"

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Conservatives spooked at prospect of EI-triggered campaign

I think this brouhaha around employment insurance that the Liberals have been raising since their convention, and the NDP for some time before that, is starting to cause the Conservatives deep concern.

How else to explain that this morning I woke-up to an inbox stuffed with clippings from Conservative pundits and editorials from Conservative-friendly papers all poo-poohing the Liberal proposals for a fairer EI system. And Diane Finley (’s staffer) even wrote an op/ed today filled with so many falsehoods it raises the question: if a Conservative minister wrote an editorial saying the sky is purple and the ocean tastes like koolade, would CanWest just print it without comment?

Clearly, they’re spooked. And I can well understand why. While I really don’t see how we get into an election over EI, if we do I know which side of that campaign I’d want to be on. And it’s not their’s.

Here’s an interesting fact I learned in my morning reading. Now, the Liberals have been proposing a national 360 hour standard for EI for the duration of the recession. Critics say that number is crazy low. And not having a point of comparison, I thought maybe it was. Then I learned the current figure is between 420 to 910 hours, depending on where you live.

So, at the low end, we’re talking a difference of 60 hours. Or, a week-and-a-half of full-time work. Quelle horror! And while that regional disparity may have made sense once, it really doesn’t in today’s economy. It just doesn’t make sense anymore that someone in Ontario needs to work twice as long to qualify for EI as someone in Newfoundland. Nearly 70 per cent of unemployed Ontarians don't qualify for EI. Fighting to maintain that unfairness isn’t a position I’d want to take in an election campaign.

Will the Conservatives be putting this comment by Diane "Let them eat cake" Finley in a commercial?

"We do not want to make it lucrative for them to stay home and get paid for it.”

Probably not. But I’m sure someone will be ensuring that comment gets lots of play, as well as all the similar comments made by Conservative ministers, not to mention Stephen Harper himself, who called changes to make the system fairer an “absurdity.”

Anyone who has been on EI knows its far from lucrative. Why would someone voluntarily leave a job will full salary (and maybe benefits) in order to collect a fraction of their salary? It doesn’t make sense. What we’re talking about is helping Canadians who have lost their jobs because of this recession get back on their feet and find new employment, and ensuring they can benefit from a system THEY paid into.

Unemployment is rising sharply in regions where it never has before, highlighting the disparities of he current system. Over 300,000 Canadians have lost their jobs since the last election, thanks to a recession only the Harper Conservatives didn’t see coming. And many, many more are concerned about the safety of their jobs and the livelihood of their families.

Do the Conservatives really want to die on this hill, and fight an election calling potential EI recipients featherbedding freeloaders? Fighting against a fairer EI system when so many Canadians are either losing their jobs or fearful that they will soon be out of work? Saying people in Ontario should work longer to receive benefits?

They’ll back away from this somehow. And they should, because the focus here should be on making the EI system work for Canadians, and because they’re not that stupid.

If they want to unnecessarily force an election on this though, I say bring it on. Luckily for all the unemployed Conservatives that election will create, the Liberal will ensure a fairer EI system will be there for them.

WORTH READING:

*Michael Ignatieff's op/ed on employment insurance reform
*Liberal fact check on EI and Conservatives mistruths
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PS. Check-out my entry for the YLC's positive politics ad challenge, "Is this your Canada?"

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Video: It's the economy, Stephen!

Michael Ignatieff had an excellent op/ed on EI in the National Post over the weekend:

Unemployment is up 83% in Alberta and 68% in B. C. -- but it's still twice as hard to qualify for EI in Western Canada as it is elsewhere in the country.

The rules end up pitting worker against worker. In Magog, Que., 200 people who lost their jobs at Gurit Canada at the same time and who have paid the same EI benefits are now receiving different levels of assistance because their town happens to straddle the border of two EI regions.

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PS. Check-out my entry for the YLC's positive politics ad challenge, "Is this your Canada?"

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It's the economy, Stephen...

Great cartoon re: The Conservative attack ads and Stephen Harper's priorities by The Halifax Chronicle Herald's Bruce MacKinnon:


A great response from Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff:

Well friends, Michael Ignatieff is not the issue.

We’re dealing with record bankruptcies in this country. Record job losses. Widespread economic uncertainty. That’s what matters to Canadians right now.

People care about whether or not they’ll be able to keep the job they’ve got, or find a new one, or find work for the first time. They’re worried about whether they’ll be able to retire, and whether they’ll be able to keep their family finances afloat.

And now, when we’re facing the worst economic crisis in a generations, the Conservatives are spending their energies—their time and money—launching personal attacks.

(snip)

And you know what, friends, like many of you, I have lived and worked outside this country. And I’m proud of what I’ve achieved. I’m proud of what I’m accomplished—as a proud Canadian.

Canada is a great country because Canadians are a great people. Our roots, our life stories, our family histories, cover every single corner of the globe.

Like many Canadians, I’ve seen our country from the outside. As a writer, as a teacher, as a war reporter, I’ve seen Canada from afar.

And when you see Canada from afar—when you see our unity and our purpose and our strength—you see a country that is proud of its diversity, that is strong and united in its diversity, that is an inspiration to the whole world.

Stephen Harper doesn’t understand that.

To Stephen Harper, if you live and work outside the country, you’re somehow less Canadian.

Friends, you and I know better.

We know that no matter where we come from, where we live or have lived, we are all, and always will be proud Canadians.

And a great way to hit back from Liberal Party national director Rocco Rossi. And according to Steve V., the donations are already flowing into party coffers at a rapid clip thanks to these Con ads. Indeed, it has apparently been the party's most successful e-mail solicitation ever. So, thanks for that Mr. Harper.

Dear Liberal Friend,

Trust the Conservatives to get attack ads out faster than they can deliver their promised stimulus funding. Unable to provide leadership himself, Stephen Harper has launched new ads attempting to divert attention away from his government's failures to fix the economy and to undermine the credibility of the one leader he knows can take his place - Michael Ignatieff.

Enough is enough. Please make a donation today and help Michael respond with a new kind of politics and hold this government to account.

Canadians deserve a government dedicated to solving problems, not partisan attacks. Our future depends on it. Michael's honesty and leadership have already begun to offer Canadians a sense of hope for a brighter future, with a government that will help Canada prosper and grow. Show your support and let's remind the Conservatives that their games won't work - Canada comes first.

Thank you,

Rocco Rossi
National Director
Liberal Party of Canada

Please forward this message to your friends and colleagues and encourage them to get involved. With each new voice, each donation, each new membership, and each letter to the editor our ability to create a new kind of politics continues to grow.

Be sure to donate today, and send Stephen Harper a message!

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Stephen Harper, kickass economist

Stephen "I'm a real life economist" Harper:

Striking a positive tone in his first major address since the economic crisis hit, Harper said Canada is well-positioned to "catch the wave" of economic recovery.

"Canada was the last advanced country to fall into this recession. We will make sure its effects here are the least severe, and we will come out of this faster than anyone, and stronger than ever," the Prime Minister said yesterday.

Real economists that do this for a living and don't suck at it:

An international think-tank says the first tentative indicators of a rebound in the global recession are appearing in some countries, although Canada is not among them.

The Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation says its index of composite leading indicators for March shows China is already showing signs of a pause in the severe economic slowdown.

As well, the United Kingdom, Italy and France are showing tentative signs of having hit the bottom of the slide.

But other developed countries, including Canada, continue to deteriorate, the OECD says, although the pace of deterioration is decreasing.

The index for Canada was 0.4 points lower in March and was 10.2 points lower than a year ago, below the average for OECD economies.

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