General Hillier out, General that Harper likes in?

According to CTV news, the Conservative government plans to replace General Rick Hillier as chief of defence staff when his term expires in February, because he's outshining his political masters and he made Gordon O'Connor look like a doofus.

Now don't get me wrong. I won't be sad to see Hillier go. Indeed, I think it's probably a good idea. And this detainee document cover-up scandal won't be going away either.

But what I wanted to mention was this line from the CP piece, where they speculate on possible successors to Hillier as CDS. I'm not sure if I'm amused, or concern. I'm thinking a little of both actually.

CTV says potential successors include Vice-Admiral Drew Robertson and Maj.-Gen. Andrew Leslie, although insiders say Lt.-Gen. Walter Natynczyk is likely to get the top job because the prime minister likes him.

Surely the most important qualification, no?

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SES puts Ontario Liberals in majority territory

New numbers out this morning from SES echo the weekend's Ipsos numbers, also saying the McGuinty Liberals have widened their lead over the Tory Conservatives to 10 points.

The phone survey, conducted Sept. 28-30th, puts the race as follows:

Liberals: 44 per cent (+3)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 15 per cent (-3)
Greens: 7 per cent (-1)
*10 per cent undecided

It looks like the Liberal gain came from the NDP rather than the Conservatives, indicating perhaps a stop Tory/anti-Conservative vote shifting to the Liberals. I thought this note from SES was interesting:

Interestingly, in the last seven days support among women who support the NDP has dropped and resulted in a corresponding increase in female support among Liberals.

Interesting indeed. And troubling no doubt for Hampton and the NDP. This may cause them to increase their attacks on McGuinty and the Liberals in the last week of the campaign, not that they've been shy on that front to date.

Speaking of Hampton, he hasn't been losing support personally and neither has McGuinty, who has a three point (but within the margin) lead on Tory for best Premier:

Dalton McGuinty 32% (+3)
John Tory 29% (-2)
Howard Hampton 18% (+3)
Frank de Jong 3% (-1)
None of them 6% (-1)
Unsure 12% (-2)

I'm not sure if we'll have another public poll before e-day to see how Tory's major flip-flop yesterday on faith-based schooling plays. I'm sure the parties will have their own internal polling shortly, it would be interesting to see the results. The next poll for us though may be the only one that counts, on Oct. 10. It'll be like a giant free vote.

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I guess Russia has MMP too

Given all the debate about lists and electoral reform and MMP in the blogsphere these days, I got a chuckle out of this story in the Globe:

President Vladimir Putin will head the candidate list of Russia's dominate political party in parliamentary elections in December and may become the country's next prime minister, he said Monday.

Mr. Putin is barred by Russia's constitution from seeking a third straight term in the presidential election in March but has strongly indicated that he would keep a hand on the reins of power.

He agreed to head United Russia's candidate list in the December parliamentary vote, which could open the door for him to become a powerful prime minister leading in tandem with a weakened president.

Probably not the example I'd use when promoting MMP.

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Tory: Leadership if necessary, but not necessarily leadership

Alternative new slogan for John Tory: Leadership matters, unless it’s too hard, then forget it. That one may be too long to fit on a bumper-sticker though. How about: John Tory is not a leader?

Yes, you’ve probably heard the news by now, but Conservative leader John Tory has flip-flopped on the central tenet of his election platform with just nine scant days to go to election day. Mr. Principles is abandoning them for electoral expediency. Mr. Trust and Integrity is breaking a major promise, and he’s doing it before the election is even over:

Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory today flip-flopped on his controversial $400 million scheme to fund faith-based school.

Tory told 150 people at an Economic Club luncheon that he has heard the criticism from Ontarians of his plan.

"I have always believed that listening to the people is at the very core of leadership," he said, admitting the policy has "become too much a source of division."

So apparently leadership, according to John Tory, is backing down from a position he has called a matter of principle, a matter of fundamental fairness, an issue he has made the centre point if his campaign, because he has suddenly realized that if he sticks to his convictions on a point of principle he’d get his ass handed to him by the electorate. According to Tory then, leadership equals abandoning your principles for electoral expediency. I don’t think so John.

Let’s call a spade a spade here. The faith-based schooling retreat is a MASSIVE failure of leadership by John Tory. He chose this issue. He staked his political success on it. And, over the course of the campaign, he has spectacularly failed to convince the people of Ontario that he is right on this issue. Every poll shows his approach on this issue has been soundly rejected by Ontarians, and it’s one of the reasons why the Liberals have a ten point lead.

A more accurate definition of leadership would be taking the position on an issue you know in your heart of hearts to be right, popular or not, and convincing the people that you are correct; rallying them to your side.

That’s leadership. Flip-flopping purely for political expediency is the opposite of leadership.

Leadership DOES matter. But John Tory is not a leader.

UPDATE: It’s a bigger flip-flop then I thought. Kinsella has this transcript of a Tory press scrum from August 29th. Yes, of this year…

Reporter: What would be your position on a free vote on something like your policy of faith based education? Would you allow your caucus a free vote on an issue like that?

John Tory: I’ve always been consistent is saying that on significant matters of policy, of party policy, you’re going to have to have a discussion within caucus and perhaps as often as not say you’re going to have to vote as a party.

That’s the same as the budget – a fundamental instrument of government policy that you can’t be taking a chance, even in a majority that the government might be defeated. So your job as a leader is to earn the confidence of your members so they feel comfortable saying “we’ll vote as one on this”.

So, I’m saying the same thing I’ve been saying on this subject – there’s a number of items of essential party policy where you’re going to have to have a vote where party discipline prevails.

If he’s such a great leader, why can’t John Tory even lead his own caucus on this issue?

Earlier Monday, Tory held a conference call with all of the party's candidates, many of whom have complained about how much voters dislike the idea.

Meanwhile, another Progressive Conservative candidate has broken ranks with the party on the issue.

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek candidate Tara Crugnale told The Hamilton Spectator that she "can't defend the policy as it stands now."

...

Last week, Conservative MPP Bill Murdoch said he would not support the policy.

ELSEWHERE: Unsurprisingly, there’s lots of blogsphere reaction. For other takes, visit Adam Radwanski, BigCityLib, Jason Cherniak, Far and Wide, Liberal Arts and Minds and Scott Tribe. I have to give the medal though to Scott Feschuk:

“I have always believed that listening to the people is at the very core of leadership,” John Tory said in a speech today to the Economic Club of Toronto.

Other things that “listening to the people” is apparently at the very core of:

• Desperately trying to save your own political ass.

• Uhh, that's it.

• Wait! Also being a psychiatrist!

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Tory’s ship is sinking: Will 'leadership' get thrown overboard?

The new polling numbers on the Ontario provincial election released over the weekend by Ipsos Reid surely have to be giving Conservatives pause, and causing John Tory to ask what ‘matters’ more: leadership, or polling numbers.

Because these polling numbers aren’t good. Unless you’re a Liberal, that is. Looks like Dalton is the debate winner after all. The latest numbers show the Liberals (43) opening-up a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (33), with the NDP treading-water at 17 and the Greens continually unchanged at 6.

For all the Conservative bluster, the numbers show the Liberals down just three points from the 46 they achieved in Election 2003, while if the vote were held today John Tory would have done two points WORSE than Ernie Eves, who had all that Mike Harris baggage to deal with. Ouch.

Here’s the chart:

Ipsos indicates the landscape is hardening, with people becoming more firmly decided in their voting choice. Interesting also though is the motivation of voters to get out and vote, always key for electoral success. Conservative voters are the most motivated at 74 per cent, followed by NDPers at 70 per cent and Liberals at 68 per cent.

Even factoring in those figured though, Ipsos still projects a potential Liberal majority, with Libs 42 per cent to Cons 35 and NDP 17. So, get out the vote will be essential if the Liberals want to get a majority.

On the issues front, the number one issue dogging Tory, according to Ipsos, and, well, everybody paying even a little attention, is faith-based schooling:

While at the beginning of the campaign 35% of Ontarians either ‘strongly’ (14%) or ‘somewhat’ (21%) supported the Progressive Conservative plan to extend funding to faith-based schools throughout Ontario, just three in ten (30%) Ontarians currently either ‘strongly’ (13%) or ‘somewhat support’ (17%) this idea. What is profound is the intensity with which Ontarians overwhelmingly oppose (68%) this plan, with a majority (51%) indicating that they ‘strongly oppose’ and two in ten (17%) saying that they ‘somewhat oppose’ the Ontario Government in extending full funding to faith-based schools and others of a similar nature.

If there’s any solace for John Tory it’s his personal numbers. On the Best Premier front he’s still neck and neck with Dalton McGuinty, with Dalton at 33 per cent and John at 32 per cent.


So, perhaps people do think leadership matters. It’s the rest of the ‘John Tory Team’ that Ontarians have a problem with. And, one wonders how strong Tory’s leadership numbers will stay if he flip-flops and breaks his promise on the faith-based schooling issue, forsaking ‘leadership’ for political opportunism. Perhaps that’s why, as Jason speculates, he was pushing supporters to vote last week.

Just a week and a half to go to e-day. Makes me a bit sad I’ll be in Vegas and will miss all the excitement. But only a little bit.

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