Monday, May 14, 2007

Another day, another poll, another tie

This time it’s Ipsos out with new polling numbers this morning, although the numbers are pretty much the same as all the polls have been lately: Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat.

Conducted May 10 with a 3.1& +/- margin of error, Ipsos has the horse race percentage numbers as Liberals 32, Conservatives 31, NDP 17, Greens 9, BQ 8, Undecided 7. Here’s a pretty chart from Ipsos to illustrate it:

They also publish regional numbers which, while interesting, should always be taken with a grain of salt. I’m in B.C. this week (hence all this time for blogging), so I’m pleased to see the Liberals 5 points up on the Conservatives here, although the NDP has surged into the lead (NDP 30, Libs 29, Cons 24, Greens 16). The Cons dipped in Alberta but still have a huge lead, Ontario was little changed, the Cons gained a bit a Liberal expense in Quebec, and in the Atlantic the Cons and Greens lost to the Libs and NDP.

Still, given the small sample sizes and wild swings, I don’t put much stock into these regional numbers. Still, here’s another pretty chart from Ipsos to illustrate it:

Ipsos concludes the “evaporation of support” for the Conservatives is the reason why the Liberals are statistically ahead in the polls. Given the breakdowns though I’d wager it would be another Conservative minority if an election were held today, the Cons can afford to bleed plenty if support in Alberta before it starts costing them seats, did rural/interior B.C.

Interestingly Ipsos notes the Cons have been losing support everywhere except Quebec, while this poll the Libs declined a tad everywhere except Alberta (and Atlantic Canada), and the NDP gained everywhere but the prairies. Somewhat Bizarro-World-ish, no?

And here’s some fun age and gender breakdowns:

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (34%) over the Liberals (31%) by a 3-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (18%) than among men (16%), while the Bloc (women, 9%; men, 7%) and Green Party (women, 10%; men, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (41%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (24%). The Liberals enjoy greater support among Canadians 35 to 54 years old (36%) than among either those 18 to 34 years (27%) or those 55 years and older (31%). Support for the NDP (22%), Green Party (14%) and Bloc Quebecois (11%) each depend more heavily on respondents 18 to 34 years of age than among older respondents.
Will be interesting to see how the Cons disastrous “Accountability week” and Duceppe’s 24-hour leadership bid impacts the next round of polling numbers.

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susansmith said...

It would be interesting to see the breakdown for the NDP in the prairies, by separating out the 3 provinces.
I am thinking here that the data is askewed by the Alberta factor.

Dr. Tux said...

What makes you think that the Cons would win if an election were held today?

Gauntlet said...

I hate it when the polling companies can't do math. You can't say that the liberals at 34/31 are dividing between men and women more than the bloc at 9/7. 9/16 is .56, and 31/65 is .52. The Bloc is more disproportioned than the liberals or the conservatives.

So if you can't get even that much right, why should I believe the rest of your analysis?

Jeff said...

Jan, the Alberta numbers are broken-out if you click on the regional map. Ipsos has the NDP at 30 in BC, 9 in Alberta, and 18 in Sask/Man. The margins of errors though are quite high.

Sheeple, I think the Cons would get another minority today because of the way the numbers break down. In BC, Lib and NDP support is concentrated in Van/Vic and the coast (Skeena and Van Island). The Cons have such huge leads in the interior they can afford to lose a lot of support. Even moreso in Alberta, they may lose one seat there at the most, a 13-point drop means little. In Ontario Liberal support is again concentrated a lot in the 416, the Cons can potentially swing some ridings in the 905. They're still on track for gains in Quebec, and they don't have many seats to lose in the Maritimes anyway.